LAS VEGAS — The Bears will be toeing a tightrope in 2024 between a winning or losing season, making the playoffs or missing them for a fourth consecutive year.
That’s according to a select group of sharp bettors who envision a middle-of-the-road season.
Appropriately, second-generation Nevada oddsman Kenny White pegs the team’s victory total at 8.7. It opened at 9 at most Las Vegas sportsbooks, but several months of under bets trimmed it to 8.5.
Circa Sports had it at 8.5, over -145 (or risk $145 to win $100), under +125. The South Point just moved it back to 9 (over +105, under -125).
Todd Fuhrman, co-founder of the “Bet the Board” podcast and a CBS Sports HQ betting analyst, took under 8.5.
“Everyone wants to talk about the new-look Bears offense,” he said, “but my concern is on defense. Their uptick late last season came against a questionable slate of quarterbacks and was weather-aided.
“Asking them to win 9, or even 10 games, is a leap too far.”
NO SUPERMAN
I tapped Fuhrman, a Chicago native, and three other veteran bettors with direct connections to the city for Bears input, with additional insight on the season from a host of other experts.
At the Vegas Sports and Information Network (VSiN), senior announcer and Indiana-reared Matt Youmans nabbed under 9 (at -110) this summer. He advised not betting under 8.5.
“Because their first 10 games are relatively soft, and the Bears will have a shot to get off to a fast start,” Youmans said. “But I’ll make this team go 10-7 to beat me, and I like my chances. It’s a tough division, I’m not a believer in [Matt] Eberflus as a coach and I’m not buying all the hype on [rookie quarterback Caleb] Williams, who will be good but not great this season. He isn’t Superman; he will have some bad Sundays.”
From Boston, Chicago native Sam Panayotovich, co-host of BetMGM’s “BetQLDaily” and a FoxSports.com betting analyst, recommended not going over 8.5, at -145.
“If you like the Bears this year, bet them to make the playoffs at -110,” he said. “It’s basically the same bet, and you minimize the juice. The magic number is 9 in the NFC; that’ll be good enough to get into the playoffs.”
Longtime Las Vegas resident Chuck Edel, a sharp punter from Chicago, expects improvement from a defense that yielded a bottom-third 379 points a year ago. Still, he grabbed under 9 in July.
“I think Williams will be a good NFL QB,” Edel said. “But to expect him, in his rookie season, [to excel] against defenses that will throw a lot of different looks at him might be unrealistic.”
JERSEY PIZZA?
Other sharps tapped for their single favorite NFL bet also involved the Bears. In Texas, handicapper Sean Higgs favored under 8.5 or 9.
“Simple,” he said. “Rookie QB. Terrible HC. I received a lot of hate on Sports Grid when I said, ‘Five wins.’ OK, six or seven, tops. Rookie quarterbacks don’t go on the road and beat playoff teams.
“The second half of the Bears’ schedule is brutal. [Commanders quarterback] Jayden Daniels for offensive rookie of the year [+600 at Circa], too. And New Jersey pizza is better than Chicago pizza!”
The Bronx-born and longtime Vegas bettor Bill Krackomberger leans under 8.5 (+145) on the Bears at Circa, but he won’t bet it.
“The Bears always have big fan support, which leads to the sportsbooks always needing the under,” he said. “And I always like to be on their side. But if Williams has a good year, they will go over.”
In Florida, WagerTalk co-owner and bettor Kelly Stewart took the Titans +4 against the Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday.
“The Bears’ defense will be their Achilles’ heel again [Sunday],” she said. “The group gifted wins to QBs Joshua Dobbs, Bryce Young, Joe Flacco and Derek Carr last year, and it’ll be more of the same to a guy named Will Levis.”
Fuhrman also took the 49ers under 11.5 (-140), as did Fox Sports Radio (FSR) overnight host Ben Maller.
“Is the Disease of Me starting to creep into the Niners?” Maller said. “This is a massive win total. They can go 11-6 and have a great season and still not reach that level.”
The 49ers had contract issues with several players, but Fuhrman noted other concerns.
“This isn’t one of the league’s deepest rosters, and they benefitted from tremendous injury luck last season,” he said. “Combine that with a late-season schedule of rested opponents, and getting to 12 is a big ask.”
Bernie Fratto, the Vegas-based weekend overnight FSR host, pointed to divisional dogs covering 76% of the time in September since 2014.
“The Raiders are a mediocre squad,” he said, “but they’re catching 3.5 points at the Chargers. This will be a tight game, and the Silver and Black are actually a live dog.”
Former UNLV quarterback Jon Denton now works, raises a family and bets in Iowa, and he played the Raiders under 6.5 victories.
“A projected favorite only twice all year, and, per PFF, the QB room is ranked 30th, the run game 32nd,” he said. “A highly efficient defense keeps some games close, but no offseason QB upgrade will haunt them early and often.”
ADDED ACTION
For their non-Bears bets, Youmans took the Patriots under 5 (-130), Panayotovich got +350 on the Cardinals making the playoffs and Edel snagged the Steelers +3 against the Falcons.
Youmans also bought the Chargers over 8.5 (-145). Panayotovich called the Cardinals his sleeper team.
“You can still find +330,” he said. “It should be a big year for Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.”
In Week 1, Edel fades teams that haven’t played their starters in the preseason. Of that group, he said, the Steelers stand out against the Falcons.
“Atlanta is a team that is getting a lot of love,” Edel said, “but it hasn’t played its starters during the preseason, including big free-agent [quarterback] Kirk Cousins, who is coming off an Achilles injury.”
ANTI-VIKES, PRO-HAWKS
Kenny White likes receivers Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson but little else with the Vikings. Quarterback Sam Darnold impresses nobody, and running back Aaron Jones’ odometer is up there. He bet under 7.5 in June.
“The 29th-rated offense and 29th-rated defense,” Kenny said. “Overall, it’s the 30th-rated team in the NFL. That isn’t very good.”
Finally, third-generation ’capper Alexandra White, Kenny’s daughter and a co-host of the South Point’s “Sports by the Book” streaming show, is on Seahawks overs, 7.5 (at -160) and 8 (-110).
The Seahawks’ 9-8 season in 2023 was considered a down year, so she believes they’re undervalued this season. She has them winning at least nine games.
The efficient offense boasts one of the best receiving trios — DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett — in the league, she said, but the defense was brutal.
Enter, Mike Macdonald. Under him last season, the Ravens became the first NFL team to yield the fewest average points (16.5), get the most sacks (60) and have the most takeaways (31) in a season.
“The defensive guru is the [Seahawks’] new head coach,” Alex said, “and his schemes will be major upgrades.”