LAS VEGAS — Penn State basketball has been registering on Jordan Schefter’s radar, as its 89.6-point scoring average was second nationally. Plus, the pesky Nittany Lions rated high in assists and steals.
Among 18 or so squads that I’d been following, I took extra interest in monitoring their game at Rutgers on Dec. 10, when the Lions were three-point underdogs. The Scarlet Knights won 80-76.
Penn State backers were delivered a blow, but that’s the beauty of how Schefter operates — and how I’ve been navigating sports betting.
Schefter dodged betting on that game. The Lions registering so high in those key categories compelled him to consider them in the long term, the NCAA Tournament futures market.
Penn State opened the season at around 60-1 odds to make the Final Four, 275-1 to win the title. That’s where Schefter would invest in the Nittany Lions.
I mention Florida, and he explodes.
‘‘Fun team!’’ Schefter says. ‘‘I was on them two weeks ago when I started my ticket on them, and I have upwards of $50,000 on them already. As I build this ticket, it’ll get up to $100,000, $150,000. I like to be on teams early and get long odds, then play that against the favorite.’’
‘Tonight’s game’
Those amounts reflect the potential payoff should Florida win the NCAA Tournament on April 7 in San Antonio. The ultimate payoff represents a figure to hedge against.
Let’s say it’s a $100,000 windfall on a Gators victory. In a hypothetical title tilt, if Schefter has no position on Team B and game odds are even, a $50,000 wager on Team B guarantees $50,000 in winnings.
That’s the basic version. It gets complex. I got the Gators at plus-850 to reach the Final Four, 35-1 to win it all. Today, those figures are around plus-450 and 22-1, respectively.
It pays to take early positions before the masses move on a team.
‘‘Going long and getting something for your money,’’ Schefter says. ‘‘This whole thing has been evolving and building.’’
Schefter, 53, is the younger brother of ESPN ace NFL reporter Adam Schefter. Jordan doesn’t bet pro football. They were raised on Long Island. Jordan, who is semi-retired from the glass industry, landed in Las Vegas 10 years ago.
About three years ago, Jordan had the futures epiphany that I experienced two years ago: getting away from the day-to-day grind of betting sports in favor of the long game, getting 30-1 or 50-1 odds and using those as hedges.
Again, I’m a tadpole compared to many punters, including Jordan. He’ll risk a C-note on an MLB team winning a division and keep hammering that position as the season progresses. He stakes claims on other teams — even in that division — as he sees fit.
He’ll back college football and NHL, MLB and NBA teams to win a division or conference.
It’s an entertaining year-round cycle.
Three years ago, he netted $20,000 on the Braves winning the National League East. He bagged $17,000 on the Kings winning the NBA’s Pacific Division in 2022-23. He trumpets the Capitals taking the NHL’s Metropolitan Division this season.
He describes a one-off scenario — a game, as opposed to a tournament, in which he had about $150,000 in potential futures payoff on a team — to hedge against.
‘‘I outkicked the coverage,’’ Schefter says. ‘‘When I got to the hedge, it was too big; I left money on the table. I said to myself, ‘Learn! Don’t let that happen again!’ ’’
He constantly hones and polishes a detailed list of procedures.
‘‘I went with the approach that I’m going to have fun,’’ Schefter says. ‘‘Any bet I put down, I’m going to enjoy. I like to learn, so I was kind of looking and learning, never betting ‘tonight’s game.’
‘‘The only way I’ll bet ‘tonight’s game’ is on a hedge, where I know I’m gonna win.’’
He’ll take Auburn
Two years ago, I nailed Florida Atlantic, at 60-1 odds, to reach the Final Four. The team was ranked among the top 10% in the country in defensive and offensive efficiency and ATS. To me, that’s elite.
I struck.
A minnow’s windfall, as I’ve documented. Pennies compared to Schefter’s operation. We discuss the Final Four candidates this season.
I have earmarked Gonzaga (11-1) beating UConn (15-1) for the crown, plus Kentucky (25-1, 22-1) and Florida (50-1, 40-1). On the periphery, Marquette (65-1, 60-1) and Tennessee (25-1).
I’m ahead on the Wildcats (17-1 early this week at DraftKings), Gators (22-1), Golden Eagles (40-1) and Volunteers (11-1).
I have Final Four action on some of the above, with flings on Illinois (15-1), Wisconsin (20-1), Penn State (22-1), San Diego State (35-1) and DePaul (120-1). All odds are subject to change.
Schefter declines to note the figures he nabbed on Alabama, Auburn, Iowa State and UConn, his Final Four.
He especially likes Auburn’s Johni Broome, a 6-10, 240-pound lefty whom Schefter compares to Lamar Odom.
‘‘They’ll be a tough out,’’ he says, ‘‘because nobody can match up with this guy.’’
For the new 12-team College Football Playoff, both of us hold several long-game tickets poised to deliver dividends — quite a bit more for him than me.
‘‘I keep in the moment,’’ Schefter says. ‘‘I know when I’ll get paid, the date I’ll get paid, and go to the next one. Otherwise, I go too far and get too thin and I won’t have the bankroll. It’s fun and keeps my mind going.’’