We asked Metro readers what they wanted to see in next week’s Budget, and then asked our Senior Politics Reporter Craig Munro to figure out what’s going on – here’s what he found. Read more from Craig in Metro’s politics newsletter Alright Gov? which delivers exclusive analysis and more to your inbox every week.
Charley wants: ‘Lower taxes but also I want the two child benefit cap scrapped. There are families out there with children that are going hungry.’
Craig says: The two-child cap is an interesting one. You may have seen the Chancellor and the Prime Minister giving strong hints they intend to scrap it at the Budget in their push to tackle child poverty.
But that was before the reported backtracking on a rise in income tax.
It was widely assumed (including by me) that the end of the cap would be used as a sweetener to justify the controversial manifesto breach.
Now the income tax increase has apparently been dropped, does that mean the benefit cap will remain? It’ll certainly make such a move much more difficult to fund.
Incidentally, I wouldn’t be too optimistic about something costly happening while taxes simultaneously come down. Reeves has ruled out steep public spending cuts and extensive borrowing, which leaves tax rises as the last option for bringing in cash.
Thomas wants: ‘A commitment to central funding of social care and SEND, with taxation increased to fund it. Central funding of care for the aged, with the pension triple lock removed and inheritance tax increased to pay for it.’
Craig says: This will almost certainly be Reeves’ last Budget before the government’s big plan to reform the SEND (Special Educational Needs and Disabilities) system is published.
It was meant to come out this autumn, but last month Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson pushed the release date back to ‘early next year’.
So the Chancellor doesn’t yet know exactly what measures will be announced – she’ll be hoping they will substantially reduce the massive (and growing) bill, but she won’t be able to take that into account at this point.
It’s a similar story with social care, with the Casey Commission due to publish its first report next year. Like SEND, it too will require funding in the meantime.
I wouldn’t count on anything happening to the pension triple lock at this Budget though. Labour have made it very clear they don’t intend to touch that any time soon.
What do you think the government should focus on in the next Budget?
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Lowering taxes
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Addressing child poverty
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Increasing social care and SEND funding
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Reforming tax laws for inheritance or pensions
David wants: ‘An increase in tax free allowance. More money for the poorest in society without the employers feeling an increase in their costs.’
Craig says: The tax-free allowance – meaning the amount you can earn before you need to pay income tax – is £12,750.
Reform proposed lifting that threshold to £20,000 in their ‘contract’ for last year’s election, saying it would ‘free’ seven million workers from paying income tax. (Last month, the party dropped all the tax pledges from its manifesto and said it would focus on public spending cuts.)
And earlier this year, a petition to lift the tax-free allowance to that same level gained more than 280,000 signatures – which means I can share the government’s response, which explains why you won’t see it at next week’s Budget:
‘Increasing the Personal Allowance to £20,000 would come at a significant fiscal cost of many billions of pounds per annum. This would reduce tax receipts substantially, decreasing funds available for the UK’s hospitals, schools, and other essential public services that we all rely on.
‘It would also undermine the work the Chancellor has done to restore fiscal responsibility and economic stability, which are critical to getting our economy growing and keeping taxes, inflation, and mortgages as low as possible.’
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