The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Thought experiment: Somewhere around 2032, the Big Ten and SEC decide to form a College Football Playoff subdivision. Pick a number of teams. Who makes it? Do they bring along anyone from the ACC or the Big 12? And what happens to the remaining FBS schools? — Paul T Brown
This is a twist on the super league concept that’s specific to the postseason format.
In our opinion, it’s an all-or-nothing situation. Either the super league is formed for the regular season and postseason, or there is no super league whatsoever.
Yes, the Big Ten and SEC threatened to create their own playoff as a means of leveraging control of CFP negotiations back in 2023-24, but the dynamics have changed on numerous levels.
It’s difficult to envision the two conferences winning the political battle that would ensue, both at the state and federal level, if they formed a separate, and unequal, postseason.
But at a broad level, it’s a timely issue. Within the next four-to-six weeks, we should know if the long-theorized super league remains a possibility.
Why? Because the Big Ten’s consideration of private capital is a direct threat.
As part of the proposal to accept a cash infusion of at least $2 billion from an outside investor, Big Ten schools would be required to sign a 10-year extension of the conference’s grant-of-rights.
That agreement binds each school’s media revenue to the conference and effectively makes leaving the Big Ten for another entity financially unfeasible.
In other words, Ohio State and Michigan would be bound to the Big Ten until 2046. Without the Buckeyes and Wolverines, there is no super league.
While the conference has myriad reasons for considering private capital, killing the super league is probably near the top of the list — at least for commissioner Tony Petitti.
A super league would leave Petitti without a conference to lead, authority to exert and paychecks to cash. The same goes for Greg Sankey (SEC), Jim Phillips (ACC) and Brett Yormark (Big 12).
The super league would have its own governance structure and executive team, separate and distinct from the current Power Four conferences.
How likely are the Big Ten presidents to approve the private capital infusion? A new dynamic entered the calculation Friday when U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who has been heavily involved in college sports legislation, sent a letter to each Big Ten president/chancellor questioning the endeavor.
In exchange for the $2 billion loan (and accompanying return), the private capital investor would own 5 percent of a new commercial arm of the Big Ten.
Cantwell’s letter, obtained by the Hotline, includes the following:
“The sale of university assets, including assets that are subsidized by taxpayer dollars and favorable tax treatment, to private investors should be carefully considered and not driven solely by the Conference and its leadership.”
And this:
“Your university’s media revenues currently are not taxed because they are considered “substantially related to” your tax-exempt purpose. However, when a private, for-profit investor holds a stake in those revenues it raises questions whether the revenue loses its connection to your institution’s educational purpose.”
(How this will play out, we can’t speculate. But to this point, Petitti doesn’t have the support of the two schools that matter most: Michigan and Ohio State.)
Just as approval of the private capital would effectively kill the super league, rejection of the proposal would give the concept a second life.
The timing of conference media rights contracts make any new competitive structure unlikely before the early-to-mid 2030s — the schools simply cannot leave their current homes before that point.
What if there’s traction for a super league?
Our view has always run counter to mainstream thinking and the handful of proposals brought forth by outside entities: It won’t feature 70 or 80 teams (all the Power Four schools and a handful from the Group of Five). That structure makes no sense for the media companies.
Why would Fox or ESPN or Netflix pay immense sums to broadcast Virginia vs. Illinois or UCF vs. South Carolina?
To attract the eyeballs that generate the dollars, the super league would need 32 or 36 teams. Perhaps you could squeeze in a few more, but there cannot be any fat.
Yes, there are problems with that concept, not the least being the losing. Schools that have been successful enough over time to warrant inclusion in the super league are not used to losing, and someone would have to lose. Is Michigan ready for 5-7? Is Georgia?
(Another problem, which we’ll mention briefly here: If the top brands create a super league for football, what happens to their Olympic sports?)
But let’s envision a scenario in which the Big Ten rejects private capital and a super league of 36 teams emerges in the mid-2030s, with the backing of major media companies and its own governance structure.
Which teams make the cut? Competitive success and media value would be the determining factors.
Here’s a guess based on the current landscape:
Independent (one): Notre Dame
ACC (four): Clemson, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina
Big 12 (five): Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, TCU and Utah
Big Ten (eight): Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, USC and Washington
SEC (10): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M
That leaves room for four more if the super league has 32 teams, and it probably would be a tad bigger because of the need for game inventory. Who knows, it could encompass 48 teams broken into four regional divisions of 12.
Admittedly, we excluded some schools that would have strong cases for inclusion. But that’s one reason success over the final half of the decade is critical for Indiana, Michigan State, Louisville, Texas Tech and others. If the opportunity comes, momentum could determine the final invites.
There are too many unknowns to count when it comes to size, shape and membership. But thanks to the Big Ten, we could know in the next few weeks whether the super league has a chance to become reality or gets stopped dead in its tracks.
Why doesn’t the Pac-12 brain trust approach Cal and Stanford again? The ACC makes no sense for them, and the Big Ten isn’t calling. There are grumblings amongst members in the ACC about travel, and they are correct: They gain nothing by playing Cal or Stanford. — Larry E
We agree, the situation is nonsensical. On so many levels, the Bay Area schools would be better off in a West Coast-based conference or as the fifth and sixth schools in the Big Ten’s western wing.
But Stanford and Cal have legally binding contracts with the ACC through 2036, and the escape cost likely would be in excess of $100 million.
Also, the schools have no interest in joining the reconstituted Pac-12. Call it arrogance, call it whatever you’d like, but they feel zero athletic or academic alignment with the new version of their former home.
That alignment does exist with the ACC membership, which features a slew of high-level academic schools that field elite Olympic sports teams.
Even if the Bears and Cardinal wanted to return, the contracts would prevent it. But they don’t.
When is the final media contract for the new Pac-12 going to happen? Is there some sort of deadline? — @btarvin
First, keep in mind that there could be more than one media deal remaining. The conference has secured agreements with CBS and The CW, but there’s no reason it cannot have four in total.
One possible holdup: Warner Bros. Discovery (i.e., TNT and TBS), a potential suitor for Pac-12 rights, is a takeover target. The corporate machinations could have slowed any deal with the Pac-12 and its adviser, Octagon.
A firm deadline doesn’t exist. In theory, the Pac-12 could go several months before finalizing the media deal(s). But from a practical standpoint, the sooner the better for scheduling purposes. (At this point, we fully expect the conference to have eight football-playing schools next year, and nine for basketball.)
There are so many issues, the process is akin to five-dimensional chess: The membership issue impacts game inventory which impacts media deals. And don’t forget the poaching-penalty lawsuit, the College Football Playoff format uncertainty and the unsettled bowl lineup — the conference must account for a slew of scenarios.
So, too, do the potential media partners.
There are several series set between the new Pac-12 and the new Mountain West: Fresno State-San Jose State, Colorado State-Wyoming and San Diego State-Hawaii. Could this be the groundwork for a future scheduling alliance between the conferences? — @NateJones2009
Consider us skeptical.
The three series noted above are regional rivalries that date back decades and make sense for the schools at a local level.
It’s difficult to envision the respective conference offices, working on behalf of the full membership, reaching an agreement on the color of the sky, much less a scheduling partnership.
After all, they are currently fighting in court over a … scheduling partnership.
In our view, the two remaining members of the Pac-12, Washington State and Oregon State, want no part of binding agreements with the Mountain West, and we suspect that will remain true long after the lawsuit is settled.
And keep this in mind: The Mountain West hasn’t announced a media rights deal or gotten clarity on its financial situation (because of the legal proceedings).
At this point, there’s a non-zero chance the conference dissolves in 2026-27.
If crossing at least two time zones is such an issue for college football teams, why doesn’t it seem to be an issue for NFL teams? — @draywilson29
First, the NFL players are older and more mature and have more experience dealing with long flights. AFC and NFC West teams do it multiple times per season, year after year.
NFL players aren’t going to school; they are less prone to distractions; and they are more focused on issues like sleep and nutrition.
Also, the vast majority of NFL games fall into one of two Sunday broadcast windows (10 a.m. and 1 p.m. Pacific), whereas college teams have four possible broadcast slots: 9 a.m., 12:30 p.m., 4 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. They play earlier and later.
Whether the NFL data tracks with the Big Ten trends reported on the Hotline a few days ago, we cannot say.
Just a wild shot: What if a state like Arizona passed legislation that prohibited its public schools from starting games later than 8 p.m. local time or before 12 p.m. local time? The 9 p.m. start times really suck! Maybe Idaho, Utah, Colorado and Nevada follow? — @f_ted_
We’ll respond to that question with a question: How often do the Arizona schools have home games that start at 9 p.m. local? Most night games kick at 7:30 p.m., and once the time changes, start times are typically at 8:15 p.m. in Arizona — or 8:30 at the latest.
The same is true for early games: Rarely does Arizona or Arizona State start before 12 p.m. local.
Generally, the issue doesn’t seem worthy of state legislatures. After all, the schools willingly accept the TV broadcast slots when they sign grant-of-rights agreements and approve media rights deals.
Is Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in the transfer portal yet? — Paul S
Humor is always welcome on the Hotline, although this isn’t a laughing matter for the Cal faithful worried Sagapolutele will enter the portal this winter and take a mega-offer from one of the sport’s blue bloods.
It’s a reasonable concern. The freshman is supremely gifted and will be a star once he gains experience.
We can’t predict what happens when portal season arrives this winter, but would urge Cal fans to keep in mind that Sagapolutele has already done the grass-is-greener thing.
He was committed to the Bears in the fall of 2024 but signed with Oregon, which made a better offer, and spent a few weeks on the Ducks’ roster in December as they prepared for the Rose Bowl.
And it didn’t work.
The personal connection and comfort level Sagapolutele felt with Cal’s coaches didn’t exist with Oregon, so he transferred to Berkeley and was enrolled in time for the spring semester.
Put another way: He did exactly what suitors will ask him to do this winter. In our view, that makes him less of a flight risk than if he had never ventured to Eugene last year.
Granted, the Bears will need to make a respectable financial offer, and we fully expect that to happen.
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