The ballot below was submitted to Associated Press headquarters late last week in advance of the AP preseason poll release Aug. 11.
You’ll notice the teams responsible for the five national championships won this decade (Alabama, Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State) are not atop our ballot.
That does not mean we expect mayhem in the College Football Playoff. Every champion in the CFP era had claimed at least one national title prior to the event’s inception in 2014.
It’s a sport built on royalty, powered by royalty and, of course, financed by royalty.
Despite the leveling effects of NIL and the transfer portal, we expect more of the same in 2025. Our pick for the last team standing, Clemson, won the championship just seven years ago.
To the ballot …
(For reference, here are my post-spring rankings.)
Also considered: Army, Auburn, Baylor, Brigham Young, Colorado, Duke, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas State, Marshall, Memphis, Mississippi, Missouri, Navy, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulane and Washington
1. Clemson: If you thought the portal era was tantamount to an extinction event for Dabo Swinney’s program, take a gander at projections for the 2026 NFL Draft: The Tigers are loaded with first-round prospects at key positions, including veteran quarterback Cade Klubnik. Add defensive wiz Tom Allen, who was hired away from Penn State, and it’s difficult to spot a weakness.
2. Penn State: The top of the Big Ten is loaded, as usual. But Penn State, not Ohio State or Oregon, owns the roster best suited for a run at the national title. The main difference among the heavyweights: Coach James Franklin has a proven quarterback (Drew Allar); his counterparts in Columbus and Eugene do not. And like Clemson, which swiped Penn State’s defensive playcaller, the Nittany Lions did exactly the same to Ohio State, grabbing mastermind Jim Knowles.
3. Texas: The Longhorns are No. 1 in the Coaches’ preseason poll and could top the AP version next week. And sure, the roster oozes NFL talent as the Arch Manning era begins in Austin. But Texas was hit hard by attrition in the secondary and along the offensive line, and a rugged road schedule (Ohio State, Florida and Georgia) could mean more losses, a lower CFP seed and a difficult path to the title.
4. Notre Dame: The stellar offensive line and dynamic running game, combined with a stout defense, should mitigate whatever learning curve presumptive starter CJ Carr faces as he takes over for Riley Leonard. The Irish were not a one-year wonder with their run to the title game in January. Coach Marcus Freeman is recruiting at the level needed to reach the CFP on a regular basis.
5. Ohio State: We slotted the Buckeyes way, way down at No. 5 despite the presence of the best offensive and defensive players in the country in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, respectively. So why the skepticism? The quarterback situation is unsettled, the coordinators are new, and we suspect the Buckeyes will struggle to vanquish the lingering letdown from their charge to glory.
6. Florida: This ultra-bright forecast will be proven correct or deeply flawed by the middle of October, after the Gators finish a four-games-in-five-weeks stretch against LSU, Miami, Texas and Texas A&M (with three of the four on the road). Much depends on quarterback DJ Lagway producing the breakthrough season that many, including the Hotline, expect.
7. Oregon: Dan Lanning has recruited at the level needed to contend for CFP berths annually — of that, there is little doubt. But are the Ducks equipped to win multiple games in the 2025 postseason and justify a higher position in this preseason forecast? The combination of a new starting quarterback, Dante Moore, rebuilt lines of scrimmage and the injury to big-play receiver Evan Stewart is cause for significant pause.
8. Georgia: The Bulldogs weren’t nearly as crisp with the details in 2024 as they typically are under Kirby Smart, and we fully expect that to change in the fall. Also, quarterback Gunner Stockton should be far more effective than he was as the emergency starter in the playoff loss to Notre Dame. But the schedule is brutal once again with Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama.
9. Illinois: To the extent that a 10-win team with a veteran quarterback (Luke Altmyer) can be considered a sleeper the following season, the Illini fit that description. They caught a major break with the Big Ten schedule and don’t play Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. The greatest challenge might be managing expectations that haven’t existed in decades.
10. Alabama: It’s innately difficult to include the Crimson Tide with the group of teams poised to generate upside surprises, but the 2024 disappointment, the quarterback uncertainty and the pressure on second-year coach Kalen DeBoer have conspired to relegate Alabama to a secondary position on the national stage. We’ll have a better feel after a brutal opening month that starts with a trip to Florida State and ends with a date at Georgia.
11. Texas Tech: The second-ranked transfer class in the country features 13 players with four-star ratings and, thanks to NIL money, is located in Lubbock. Add a solid lineup of returnees, and the Red Raiders sure look like a Big 12 frontrunner. Managing expectations will be critical for a program that hasn’t produced a 10-win season since the Mike Leach era in the late 2000s.
12. LSU: Brian Kelly might not have the hottest seat in the SEC, but his chair is only a few degrees from scalding. The return of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier — he’s a Heisman Trophy favorite, along with Clemson’s Klubnik and Texas’ Manning — and the arrival of the top-ranked transfer class in the country provide the foundation for what could be a 10-win season (or more). The opener, in the other Death Valley (Clemson), will frame LSU’s trajectory.
13. Miami: As usual, Mario Cristobal has all the talent needed to win his conference. Whether the Hurricanes play to their potential with regularity is another issue entirely. The schedule includes Notre Dame, Florida and Florida State but, notably, not Clemson.
14. Oklahoma: Fresh off a six-win season, the Sooners overhauled their offense with new coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State and tailback Jaydn Ott from Cal. Assuming the defense is respectable, Oklahoma should win enough games to cool the heat under coach Brent Venables’ seat.
15. Louisville: Quarterback Tyler Shough is off to the NFL but has been replaced by a name familiar to anyone who watched the 2023 Holiday Bowl: Miller Moss, who tossed five touchdowns for USC that night against Louisville, is now starting for the Cardinals. What a time to be alive.
16. Boise State: With all the focus on who the Broncos lost (tailback Ashton Jeanty), it’s worth noting what the Broncos have: the best offensive and defensive lines in the Mountain West. Add veteran quarterback Maddux Madsen, and another CFP berth is well within reach, especially if Boise State plays well in its marquee game … at Notre Dame.
17. Iowa State: We’re smart enough to acknowledge the intoxicating mayhem that is the Big 12 and recognize the potential for Iowa State to scrape and claw and eventually emerge as the winner. At the very least, another first-rate season appears likely for the Cyclones and veteran quarterback Rocco Becht.
18. Nebraska: Although it was easy to miss, coach Matt Rhule’s decision to name Dana Holgorsen the permanent playcaller in Lincoln could prove one of the shrewdest staff moves in the country. Holgorsen just might turn Dylan Raiola into a quarterback good enough to propel Nebraska into the thick of the Big Ten race. And that would make the Big Ten race exponentially more interesting.
19. Arizona State: Coach Kenny Dillingham’s formula can work once again, especially with a quarterback-receiver combination like Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. But will the 2024 success adversely impact the locker room dynamics in 2025? (ASU wouldn’t be the first one-hit wonder of the CFP era.) We don’t expect a major regression or a second consecutive Big 12 title. There’s a middle ground for the Sun Devils — very good but not great, contender but not champion — that seems reasonable.
20. South Carolina: Like Illinois in the Big Ten and Texas Tech in the Big 12, the Gamecocks must navigate the challenges that accompany unprecedented expectations. That ask is far easier with a quarterback as talented as LaNorris Sellers. But a dose of skepticism is warranted.
21. Utah: With playcaller Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier as the twin sparks arriving from New Mexico, plus a stellar offensive tackle tandem in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, the Utes should have zero trouble controlling the ball and scoring touchdowns. If the defense plays to its usual standard, coach Kyle Whittingham might have the season he expected last year — a season good enough to carry into the sunset.
22. SMU: The same challenges facing Arizona State are present with the Mustangs, who must manage expectations and navigate an ACC schedule that features Clemson and Miami and is sure to include each opponent’s best shot.
23. USC: Our confidence level in the Trojans is admittedly modest — consider this position less an endorsement of Lincoln Riley and more a contrarian approach to the national narrative (which is deeply skeptical). But we have zero doubt that a repeat of last year’s mediocrity, particularly given the university’s investment in staff and infrastructure, would put Riley’s job in jeopardy.
24. Michigan: Will the offense improve more than the defense regresses? If so, the Wolverines should return to relevance. If not, second-year coach Sherrone Moore could find himself on the hot seat … unless Michigan beats you-know-who once again.
25. Florida State: If transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos (from Boston College) performs with reasonable efficiency on a weekly basis, the Seminoles are poised to reverse their reversal — to perform at a level closer to their 2023 excellence than their 2024 implosion. We have deep faith in coach Mike Norvell, right up until we don’t have any.
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