NFL Picks: An epic battle of 14-2 teams for the NFC’s No. 1 seed makes for fitting regular season finale

Around the AFC

MV3. What a season it’s been for quarterbacks in the AFC. Any of Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson or Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow would be worthy of the award most years. They all enter Week 18 with 40-plus touchdowns — Burrow 44 (42 passing), Jackson 43 (39 passing) and Allen 40 (28 passing) — and eight or fewer interceptions. They’ve each done things that usually guarantee hardware. Jackson’s terrific season should get the slightest of nods and deliver him a third MVP.

Snoop time. After the Broncos, Miami has the second-cleanest path of the three remaining contenders for the AFC’s final playoff spot. The Dolphins need a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City. Their fate will be decided exclusively in the 2:25 p.m. Sunday window. And though they should handle the New York Jets, who have nothing to play for, they’re faced with having to do it with Snoop Huntley at quarterback rather than the injured Tua Tagovailoa.

Colts quagmire. Week 18 should have meant something for the Colts, but they put forth perhaps the single most embarrassing performance of the year in Week 17. With everything on the line, Indianapolis gave up 42 points to a 2-13 Giants team that entered averaging 14.3 points per game. Now they go into the offseason with a terrible taste in their mouths, a coach/quarterback duo that remains wholly unproven and many more questions than answers all around.

Around the NFC

Saquon 2k. An AFC quarterback will likely win MVP, but not many players have had a better 2024 than Saquon Barkley. The Philly running back topped 2,000 yards in Week 17 and will come up just short of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark because of the team’s decision to sit him in the Eagles’ finale. That’s too bad — and also understandable — but should take nothing away from a remarkable season. He went for 2,005 yards on the ground and 2,378 total.

Rams on parade. Los Angeles clinched the NFC West in Week 17 because of its strength-of-victory advantage over Seattle, rendering a Week 18 matchup between the teams pointless. A division title game would have been sweet, but now the Rams can throttle back if they so choose. This offense has a chance to be a tough out in the postseason, though seeding is going to matter a lot. The No. 4 — either L.A. or the NFC South winner— is going to have to deal with a 14-win Wild Card team.

The Bears still stink. Remember way back when Chicago lost to Washington on that Oct. 27 Hail Mary? They dropped to 4-3 that day and they haven’t won since. The team’s last chance to win a game this season before kicking its coaching search into high gear comes against a Green Bay team that has already clinched but can check in either No. 6 or 7 on the NFC side. Even if the Packers win, they could end up a 12-5 No. 7 seed.

Game of the Week

Minnesota at Detroit

Easy enough here. Two of the best teams in football square off in the last regular-season game of the year with a 15-win season, the NFC North division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the balance. What else do you need to know? The Lions are 3-point home favorites. Each defense has been disruptive and each offense features enviable fleets of playmakers. Then there are the quarterbacks. Each started his career as a top draft pick in another city and each has been perfect for his current situation. Oh, and since Week 11 they’ve combined to throw 38 touchdowns and three picks for juggernaut offenses. Doesn’t get much better than this. Unless, of course, they meet again later this month with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Lions 31, Vikings 30

Lock of the Week

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

The Bucs lost control of their standing in the NFC South and then got it right back last week when Washington knocked off Atlanta. Along the way, Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and five touchdowns in a Week 17 demolition of Carolina. Now just one more beleaguered defense stands between the Bucs and the division crown. Heck, if they win and the Rams lose, Tampa Bay can find itself in the No. 3 seed and avoid the loser of the NFC North Battle Royale on Wild Card weekend. They’re 13.5-point favorites and should breeze through to the big dance.

Buccaneers 35, Saints 17

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Upset of the Week

Washington at Dallas

The Commanders have punched their ticket but their final seed is still up for grabs. The Cowboys have engineered an admirable — if ultimately futile as it pertains to the postseason — late-season charge. The Commanders are 6-point favorites but don’t have that much to play for — they get the No. 6 with a win or a Green Bay loss and the No. 7 with a loss and a Green Bay win — so we’ll see if Dan Quinn goes all-out. Meanwhile, it could be Mike McCarthy’s last hurrah. Dallas owner Jerry Jones sounds like he wants to re-up with the coach, but you never quite know. Plus, McCarthy’s a free agent after the season. Huh.

Cowboys 24, Commanders 23

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