LAS VEGAS — Who isn’t tired of them by now? They won back-to-back Super Bowls, draining enough since they’d already claimed an NFL title in 2020.
They didn’t get the crown last season, but we still get the Chiefs shoved down our throats with that six-part documentary. We can only thank HBO’s “Hard Knocks” for spotlighting the Bills this preseason.
Perhaps that blasting by Philadelphia in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans signaled a different future for the Chiefs franchise, akin to what awaited Duke hoops a couple of months later in San Antonio?
Non-Duke fans, for decades, swear that officials have held more than a bit of favoritism toward the Blue Devils. In a national semifinal against Houston, however, Duke star Cooper Flagg was given no preference.
Against the Eagles, the Chiefs were hit with 75 penalty yards to Philly’s 59.
For a long time, the Chiefs, like those Blue Devils, have been perceived to have received striped-shirt goodwill. That certainly could be an asset to a team that went 12-0 in one-score games last season.
In fact, since that 2019 season, which K.C. capped with a crown, it has been a rather fortunate NFL franchise.
“If you average them up,” OddsBreakers writer Kiev O’Neil said of the luck category, “Kansas City is by far in first place.”
At OddsBreakers, they do just that in attempting to quantify that vague notion called fortune. It rated the Chiefs No. 1, at 5.2, in luck last season, seventh in ’23, second in ’22, 13th in ’21, first again in ’20 and seventh in ’19.
“This ‘luck’ factor has been predictable,” O’Neil said. “NFL luck is based on things like fortunate officiating calls going your way, big third- and fourth-down conversions and the other team having bad luck in those same scenarios.”
At TeamRankings, a website deep in football metrics, its “luck” ratings mirror those at OddsBreakers.
Does that fortune finally fade, as indicated by that Super Bowl defeat to Philadelphia? “Regression to the mean” is the gambler’s term for the pendulum swinging back, and that’s what we envision.
We’ll take the Chargers plus three points Friday in Brazil in a funky, humid environ whose supposedly slick pitch caused slipping issues last year, when it played host to the Packers and Eagles.
In their first year under coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers were a dynamic 12-6 against the number, the top percentage in the league, tied with the Eagles (14-7), Lions (12-6) and Broncos (12-6), according to TeamRankings. Luck might help a team win, but solid squads cover the spread. Kansas City was 9-11 ATS last season.
(Since 2019, the Chiefs are a mediocre 60-55-4 ATS. Detroit, at 62-42, tops that TeamRankings chart, followed by 59-43-4 Cincinnati, 60-44-4 Baltimore and 62-46 Green Bay.)
Of the league’s top 10 passers last season, only the Chargers’ Justin Herbert (0.6) and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (0.8) had interception percentages below 1%.
Under Harbaugh, the 6-6 Herbert is developing into a star. Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton should control the ground attack, setting up Herbert throws to Ladd McConkey, who had a team-best 1,149 receiving yards.
Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice is serving a suspension, tailback Isiah Pacheco has carried the ball 20 times in a game only twice in his 38-game career and tight end Jason Kelce, who produced all-time lows last year, is about to turn 36.
In addition, the Chargers played better away from home (+6.4-point margin) than the Chiefs (0.0). Mostly, we prefer skill over luck, and that’s why we’re taking the points.
Best bet
CHIEFS at CHARGERS
Time: 7 p.m. Friday in Sao Paulo, Brazil, YouTube.
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 46½.
Pick: Chargers 28, Chiefs 24.
Play: Chargers +3.
Top plays
GIANTS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Commanders by 6. Total: 45½.
Outlook: Ace Westgate SuperBook NFL oddsman Ed Salmons projects the Giants to be favored only once this season. Only Cleveland (258 points) scored fewer points than New York (273) a year ago. New RB Cam Skattebo might be an intriguing Giant, but QB Jayden Daniels is surrounded by talent.
Pick: Commanders 24, Giants 9.
Play: Commanders -6.
TITANS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Broncos by 8½.
Total: 42½.
Outlook: Salmons taps Tennessee to be favored only twice, which made wagering under its projected victory total of 5½ an easy decision. It has dropped 32 of its last 41 games, including 3-17 on the road in that span. Denver allowed an NFL-low 0.294 points per play last season and was even stingier (0.237) at home.
Pick: Broncos 34, Titans 6.
Play: Broncos -8½.
RAVENS at BILLS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Bills by 1½.
Total: 50½.
Outlook: Out of the gate, a potential preview of the AFC title game! Salmons projects Buffalo to be favored in all 17 of its games, Baltimore in 15. This, folks, is pure fireworks, featuring two of last season’s top-three offenses, the Bills having tallied 525 points, the Ravens 518. Root for points.
Pick: Bills 35, Ravens 31.
Play: Over 50½.
Other games
VIKINGS at BEARS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Vikings by 1½. Total: 43½.
Outlook: This flipped from Chicago as a slim fave to Minnesota, a move with which we agree. We’ll believe QB Caleb Williams can process new coach Ben Johnson’s schemes when we see it. The Bears’ inefficiency a year ago was displayed in its 0.291 points per play, fifth-worst in the NFL. WR Justin Jefferson, TE TJ Hockenson and RB Aaron Jones Sr. give the Vikes a solid foundation.
Pick: Vikings 20, Bears 12. Play: Under 43½.
STEELERS at JETS
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 38½ .
Outlook: QB Aaron Rodgers brought his 40.8 QB rating — 28th in the league, according to Pro Football Reference — from the Jets to the Steel City, so expect no miracles. Pittsburgh lost its final four games a year ago, the last three by an average of 11.7 points. Jets QB Justin Fields recorded a QBR of 50.8 in 10 Steelers games last season.
Pick: Steelers 16, Jets 6. Play: Under 38½.
DOLPHINS at COLTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Colts by 1½. Total: 47½.
Outlook: We’ve lost count of how many NFL concussions Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has sustained. Every season, every game — heck, every play — Fins fans must be saying little prayers for his health. This is one of four tilts that ace Westgate SuperBook NFL oddsman Ed Salmons projects the Colts as a favorite. We’ll take Tua, though, since Indy QB Daniel Jones is 24-44-1 as a starter.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Colts 10. Play: Fins +1½.
PANTHERS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Jaguars by 3½. Total: 46½.
Outlook: Jacksonville had the worst pass defense in the NFL last season, allowing 7.5 yards per throw. That could bode well for Carolina QB Bryce Young, who threw seven TD passes with no picks in his final three games of ’24-25, which included two OT triumphs. The Panthers drafted 6-5 Tetairoa McMillan in the first round to bolster Young’s receiving corps.
Pick: Panthers 17, Jaguars 13. Play: Panthers +3½.
BENGALS at BROWNS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Bengals by 5½. Total: 47½.
Outlook: SuperBook odds wiz Salmons projected the Browns to be favored only twice this season. QB Joe Flacco, 40, is at least the fifth different starting Browns QB since ’23 and, for what it’s worth, is 9-12 lifetime against Cincinnati, with 21 TDs and 27 interceptions. The Browns were last in the league with a -1.3 turnover margin per game last season.
Pick: Bengals 28, Browns 6. Play: Bengals -5½.
RAIDERS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 43½.
Outlook: Pete Carroll is the Raiders’ new coach, Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator, Tom Brady is the new executive assistant to owner Mark Davis, Geno Smith is the new QB and Ashton Jeanty is the new tailback. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel is in his first season as the Pats’ boss, and QB Drake Maye has upgrades everywhere on offense.
Pick: Patriots 21, Raiders 13. Play: Patriots -3.
CARDINALS at SAINTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Cardinals by 6½. Total: 43½.
Outlook: Salmons’ projections were most unkind to the Saints, whom he projected as underdogs in every game. That means even a once-in-a-while cover can be considered an upset for New Orleans. In pro-betting quarters, their QBs (Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler) get the Rodney Dangerfield Treatment; absolutely no respect.
Pick: Cardinals 17, Saints 6. Play: Cardinals -6½.
BUCCANEERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Buccaneers by 2½. Total: 47½.
Outlook: Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield, one of five NFL field generals with a yards-per-pass average of at least eight (at 8.0), is coming off a career year. The Bucs’ 502 points ranked fourth in the league, and new receiver Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) will take some of the workload off Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Their No. 7 rush defense (4.1 yards per run) improved to 2.8 over their final three games, and that must flex to slow Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson.
Pick: Bucs 27, Falcons 17. Play: Bucs -2½.
49ERS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: 49ers by 2½. Total: 43½.
Outlook: San Francisco has won its last three tilts in the Emerald City by a 29-17 average score. New Hawks QB Sam Darnold has a questionable line, which will hurt the time he has to hit Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba with passes. The 49ers have issues of their own, and none more concerning than Christian McCaffrey missing nearly half of 84 games with various injuries.
Pick: 49ers 19, Seahawks 13. Play: Under 43½.
LIONS at PACKERS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Packers by 2½. Total: 47½.
Outlook: This has eked up to 2½, but it doesn’t seem to make sense. For one, the Lions have won six of the last seven against the Packers, including three in a row at Lambeau Field by an average score of 26-17. For another, Detroit QB Jared Goff is 8-0 ATS in his last eight season openers.
Pick: Lions 24, Packers 20. Play: Lions +2½.
TEXANS at RAMS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 43½.
Outlook: Houston won six of its first eight a year ago, holding on to make the playoffs, where it went 1-1. In Joe Mixon’s absence, Woody Marks, a 1,000-yard rusher at USC, will get chances against a Rams defense that was bottom-four (4.9 yards per carry) against the run. We’ll also take QB CJ Stroud over Matthew Stafford, whose health always seems iffy.
Pick: Texans 27, Rams 26. Play: Texans +3.