LAS VEGAS — The usual suspects sit atop the NFL’s QB Rating (QBR) chart, topped by Lamar Jackson of the -Ravens, with Justin Herbert (Chargers), Jared Goff (Lions) and Jordan Love (Packers) on his heels.
Then there’s Daniel Jones, whose 111.1 rating has him situated ahead of Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Josh Allen (Bills). Jones also leads the league with 9.3 yards per throw.
A 28-year-old Duke product, Jones was 24-44-1 in 69 starts over six seasons with the Giants. In the playoffs in January 2023, he threw for 301 yards in a 31-24 triumph in Minnesota before getting thrashed in Philly 38-7.
He had been the Vikings’ property for two months when he opted to become a free agent March 11. Within hours, the Colts inked him to a one-year deal for $14 million.
After slamming the woeful Dolphins 33-6, Jones guided Indy on a last-gasp drive Sunday that resulted in Spencer Shrader’s game-winning, 45-yard field goal to beat the Broncos 29-28.
That drive was dominated by tailback Jonathan Taylor’s legs, a leverage penalty by Denver’s Eyioma Uwazurike that gave Shrader another, much-closer kick and a sound Colts defense that kept the Broncos scoreless for the final 26 minutes.
Yet, Indy is not considered a powerhouse, at least not by the latest power ratings at TeamRankings.com (TR). The Colts are rated 20th at -0.6.
On Sunday, though, they are beneficiaries of a flimsy schedule when they travel to Nashville to play the 0-2 Titans, who at a -6.0 TR rating are battling the Saints, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Giants and Panthers for league-worst status.
I repeat how, every week, I highlight enviable opportunities to wager against bad, poorly designed teams.
The Titans are playing as if they desire that pathetic crown. At 96.5 average penalty yards, they are three feet shy of the bottom-feeding Giants. (At 88.5, the Bears are 30th.)
And Cam Ward, Tennessee’s rookie quarterback out of Miami, has a 69.5 QBR, which is 32nd in a league of 32 teams. Indy allows opposing quarterbacks 5.6 yards a pass, which is in the top quarter of the NFL.
Ward, whose 11 sacks are a league high, will have a long day. He’ll have to be wary of shifty Colts safety Camryn Bynum, who is tied with the Bengals’ Jordan Battle with two interceptions.
Keep an eye on these Colts. Except for tilts at the Chargers and Chiefs, they’ll have few stern tests. Plus, in five weeks, they get the Titans again at home.
BEST BET
COLTS at TITANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Colts by 4½.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Colts 2-0/2-0; Titans 0-2/1-1.
Outlook: Titans rookie QB Cam Ward is beyond awful, averaging 4.7 yards per pass. That rates 34th, and it’s a 32-team league. The Colts and QB Daniel Jones, like several squads, benefit immensely from a soft schedule.
Pick: Colts 20, Titans 6.
Play: Colts -4½.
HOW MIECH’S PLAYS FARED
Last week: 7-9 Season: 13-19
Best bet: 1-1 Top plays: 3-3
TOP PLAYS
PACKERS at BROWNS
Time: Noon Sunday,
Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 8½.
Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Packers 2-0/2-0; Browns 0-2/1-1.
Outlook: This is the biggest efficiency mismatch of the weekend — the Packers’ No. 2-rated point-per-play (PPP) margin of 0.252 vs. the Browns’ -0.338, ranked 31st. Plus, the Browns are knotted with the Dolphins for the NFL’s worst turnover margin at -2.0.
Pick: Packers 31, Browns 13.
Play: Packers -8½.
JETS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Bucs by 7.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Jets 0-2/1-1; Bucs 2-0/2-0.
Outlook: This one just missed Best Bet status. In Houston, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield directed that late scoring drive live a savvy veteran. Tampa’s string of weaker foes changes next week when the Eagles visit.
Pick: Bucs 38, Jets 3.
Play: Bucs -7.
COWBOYS at BEARS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday,
Fox 32.
Line: Cowboys by 1½.
Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Cowboys 1-1/1-1; Bears 0-2/0-2.
Outlook: The Bears are the most inefficient NFL team, with a PPP margin of -0.384. Their defense allows 9.8 yards per pass, also 32nd in the league.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Bears 10.
Play: Cowboys -1½.
OTHER PICKS
BENGALS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Bengals 2-0/1-1; Vikings 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Jake Browning of the Bengals vs. Carson Wentz of the Vikings. That’s the QB battle in this farce. Such games are cropping up like weeds. What to do? Root for incompetence.
Pick: Vikings 9, Bengals 9.
Play: Under 41½.
STEELERS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Steelers by 1½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Steelers 1-1/0-2; Pats 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Yet another tilt between poor teams. Both possess negative points-per-play (PPP) margins, with the Steelers a few notches below the Pats. Returner Antonio Gibson will make Pittsburgh pay for kicking to him.
Pick: Patriots 20, Steelers 16.
Play: Patriots +1½.
RAMS at EAGLES
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Eagles by 3½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Rams 2-0/2-0; Eagles 2-0/1-1.
Outlook: QB Matthew Stafford’s QBR is 107.1, seventh in the NFL. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 24th at 88.5. The Rams, however, flex on defense, where their yield of 0.231 PPP is the stingiest in the NFL.
Pick: Rams 24, Eagles 17.
Play: Rams +3½.
RAIDERS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Commanders by 3½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Raiders 1-1/1-1; Commanders 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: It’s a short week for a team whose QB (Geno Smith) was exposed badly at home and who must fly to the Eastern time zone for a second time in two weeks with an NFL-worst offense that averages 0.228 points per play.
Pick: Commanders 23, Raiders 10.
Play: Commanders -3½.
FALCONS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Falcons by 5½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Falcons 1-1/1-1; Panthers 0-2/1-1.
Outlook: This should showcase Atlanta tailback Bijan Robinson — if only his coaches knew how to use him. Last week, he averaged 8.2 rushing yards, but they took him out on third-and-short, which failed, then didn’t go for it on fourth down.
Pick: Falcons 13, Panthers 10.
Play: Under 43½.
TEXANS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Jaguars by 1½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Texans 0-2/0-2; Jaguars 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Just two weeks into the season, and we have another public display of player indiscretion to his boss, this time Jags QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Liam Coen. At home, the Jags are bottom-five in penalty yards.
Pick: Texans 17, Jaguars 16.
Play: Under 44½.
BRONCOS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Chargers by 2½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Broncos 1-1/0-2; Chargers 2-0/2-0.
Outlook: When the Chargers ran for triple-digit yardage last season, they were 9-0. That included a 34-27 home win over the Broncos. We’ve got QB Justin Herbert and RBs Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris combining for 100-plus rushing yards.
Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 13.
Play: Chargers -2½.
SAINTS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Saints 0-2/0-2; Seahawks 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: The Hawks are the latest lucky dogs who get to play the hapless Saints, bearers of a gruesome -7.9 TR power rating. Seattle has a top-six PPP margin of 0.126, and its 12th Man should fuel it, despite bottom-third QB Sam Darnold.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Saints 3.
Play: Under 41½.
CARDINALS at 49ERS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: 49ers by 1½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Cards 2-0/1-1; 49ers 2-0, 2-0.
Outlook: Missing QB Brock Purdy is just the start of San Francisco’s issues. Arizona QB Kyler Murray and the Cards, posers possessing a negative TR power rating, benefit again from a friendly schedule.
Pick: Cardinals 21, 49ers 6.
Play: Cardinals +1½.
CHIEFS at GIANTS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Chiefs 0-2/0-2; Giants 0-2/1-1.
Outlook: How far has K.C. fallen? Its -0.061 PPP-margin rate is next to the Giants, at -0.074, both in the bottom quarter of the NFL. Giants QB Russell Wilson owns better passing numbers than Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Giants 19, Chiefs 16.
Play: Giants +6.
LIONS at RAVENS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Ravens by 4½. Total: 52½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Lions 1-1/1-1; Ravens 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: At nine yards per pass, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is fourth in the league. At 136.6, his QBR is No. 1, as is the Ravens’ PPP margin of 0.400. The Lions own a bottom-quarter defensive PPP margin of 0.432, which slips to 0.574 on the road.
Pick: Ravens 27, Lions 13.
Play: Ravens -4½.