LAS VEGAS — Minus quarterback Joe Burrow, Cincinnati is rudderless, a one-winged fly in the corner of the sill. Despite its record, Denver is solid and will add to the Bengals’ miseries.
Minnesota’s thumping of the Bengals on Sunday happened to be one of the tamer, predictable outcomes on one of the league’s craziest, zaniest days that culminated in piles of ripped-up tickets from coast to coast.
Now, to reflect and reiterate just a bit. I stand at a woeful 19-29, which I hope to turn around as more insights about these teams are compiled.
(It’s fine to fade my picks, too.)
Ultimately, the NFL is the most difficult nut to crack, with a point spread that has been chiseled and polished to razor-perfec-tion for decades in favor of sportsbooks.
I know pro bettors who totally avoid it, mainly due to zebras. Having a large chunk of cash come down to a referee’s whistle, on something that didn’t happen or the silence of that instrument on an infraction that did occur, is insanity defined.
“You can’t handicap injuries, execution or referees,” a regular Chicago-area reader, who never bets NFL games before Week 5, wrote me Monday. “There are some real questionable calls, as far as refs go.”
He favors parlaying money-line favorites at home, a tactic of many punters I know in Vegas sportsbooks.
I favor teasing selections seven points in my favor. Involving such action in these picks over the first three weeks, I’m 32-15-1.
Of course, they must be tied to other wins in order to cash, and at a lower payoff than regular parlays. So what? I’m not a pro bettor, and I don’t aim to hit the lottery, just to turn a ticket into cash.
Plus, I abhor sweating an outcome, so I’ll take all the insurance I can obtain. Teasing helps me achieve those goals, providing more entertainment bang.
I liked the Bills last Thursday giving 12½ points at home to Miami, but I loved Buffalo giving only 5½, turning danger numbers 10, seven and six into friends. Buffalo won 31-21.
I liked the Rams on Sunday getting four in Philly, but I absolutely adored the Rams getting 11. The Eagles somehow magically pulled it off 33-26.
Those manipulations make me money.
Mixing the teasing angle with straight plays, record-wise, wouldn’t mix. Just know that I’m playing games with many of these games, and on occasion I’ll update the teasing slate.
Best bet
BENGALS at BRONCOS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7.
Line: Broncos by 7½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 2-1/1-2; Broncos 1-2/0-3.
Pick: Broncos 27, Bengals 10.
Play: Broncos -7½.
How Miech’s plays fared
Last week: 6-10 Season: 19-29
Best bet: 2-1 Top plays: 3-6
Top plays
CHARGERS at GIANTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Chargers by 6½.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 3-0/3-0; Giants 0-3/1-2.
Outlook: The Giants allow 405 yards a game, second-worst in the league (to the Ravens’ 415). MetLife patrons who barked for him Sunday get their wish as rookie QB Jaxson Dart starts. The Chargers, he’ll soon discover, aren’t the Razorbacks.
Pick: Chargers 33, Giants 6.
Play: Chargers -6½.
COLTS at RAMS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Rams by 3½.
Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 3-0/3-0; Rams 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: A drive-quality metric rates the Colts first, the Rams third. Colts QB Daniel Jones’ MVP odds, in one market, have been sliced from 150-1 to 60-1. Jonathan Taylor averages an NFL-best 113 rushing yards for Indy.
Pick: Colts 24, Rams 21.
Play: Colts +3½.
SAINTS at BILLS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Bills by 16½.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 0-3/0-3; Bills 3-0/2-1.
Outlook: A New York handicapper/pal who took the Dolphins and 12½ points last Thursday (in a 31-21 defeat in Buffalo) says there are only two options with a spread like this: take the points out of pure principle or pass.
Pick: Bills 34, Saints 20.
Play: Saints +16½.
Other picks
VIKINGS vs. STEELERS in Dublin, Ireland
Time: 8:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL Network.
Line: Vikings by 2½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 2-1/2-1; Steelers 2-1/1-2.
Outlook: Mid to high 50s, cloudy, minimal chance of rain. Solid football weather forecasted for Croke Park. The Vikes have a positive power rating, the Steelers’ is negative. Aaron Rodgers threw for just 139 yards Sunday, and he’s 0-1 in Europe.
Pick: Vikings 20, Steelers 17.
Play: Vikings -2½.
COMMANDERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Commanders by 1½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 2-1/2-1; Falcons 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Since losing its former nickname, Washington is 2-0 in Atlanta by an average score of 29-23. Without QB Jayden Daniels (knee), the Commanders smacked Vegas 41-24. QB Marcus Mariota and four others ran for 201 yards.
Pick: Commanders 21, Falcons 10.
Play: Commanders -1½.
BROWNS at LIONS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Lions by 9½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 1-2/2-1; Lions 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: The Browns’ defense has been impressive, allowing an NFL-low 204 yards per game, but their offense has been shoddy. The Ravens, at home, belted the Browns 41-17. After losing in Green Bay, Detroit has hit its stride.
Pick: Lions 33, Browns 10.
Play: Lions -9½.
PANTHERS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 5½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 1-2/2-1; Patriots 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Pats QB Drake Maye has a top-third rating, while Carolina’s Bryce Young is struggling. Carolina’s weak rush lets Maye operate. Our intel says ref Bill Vinovich’s crew has been the kindest to home teams this year.
Pick: Patriots 20, Panthers 10.
Play: Patriots -5½.
EAGLES at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Eagles by 3½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 3-0/2-1; Bucs 3-0/2-1.
Outlook: Team Lucky runs into the Fabulous Baker (Mayfield) Boys. Look for WR Emeka Egbuka, already Mayfield’s top target, to see more action with Mike Evans shelved. The Bucs are a top-four defense on third down.
Pick: Bucs 27, Eagles 16.
Play: Bucs +3½.
TITANS at TEXANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 0-3/1-2; Texans 0-3/0-3.
Outlook: Titans QB Cam Ward averages 5.1 yards per pass, 31st in the league. He has been sacked an NFL-high 15 times. This is an oddly rare tilt in which my computer and math models predict the same victor — Houston.
Pick: Texans 23, Titans 14.
Play: Texans -7.
JAGUARS at 49ERS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jags 2-1/2-1; 49ers 3-0/2-1.
Outlook: Niners QB Mac Jones (knee) likely starts. Backup Adrian Martinez has never thrown an NFL pass. Does RB Christian McCaffrey (77 touches) soon leak oil? Jaguars CBs Jourdan Lewis and Tyson Campbell have combined to deflect 11 passes.
Pick: Jags 20, Niners 10.
Play: Jags +3.
RAVENS at CHIEFS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Ravens by 2½.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 1-2/1-2; Chiefs 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Baltimore owns a No. 2 points-per-play margin of 0.263. Its defense is terrible, but K.C.’s offense has been underwater at home (-0.047 PPP margin). QB Patrick Mahomes is the Chiefs’ leading rusher. That’s t-r-o-u-b-l-e.
Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 14.
Play: Ravens -2½.
BEARS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Bears by 1½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 1-2/1-2; Raiders 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Losing CB Jaylon Johnson (groin) hurts the Bears. Raiders QB Geno Smith has an elite target in TE Brock Bowers, but WRs Dont’e Thornton Jr., Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers are stellar complements.
Pick: Raiders 28, Bears 16.
Play: Raiders +1½.
PACKERS at COWBOYS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Packers by 7. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 2-1/2-1; Cowboys 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Defender Micah Parsons goes to Green Bay, then the Cowboys lose WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle) last week. QB Dak Prescott (NFL-high 126 passes) must dodge DL Rashan Gary, who leads the league with 4½ sacks.
Pick: Packers 28, Cowboys 17.
Play: Packers -7.
JETS at DOLPHINS
Time: 6:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Dolphins by 3.
Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 0-3/2-1; Dolphins 0-3/1-2.
Outlook: The Fins allow 32.3 points per game, in the NFL’s basement. The Jets yield 31, third from the bottom, and have lost nine in a row at Hard Rock Stadium. In two games in 2023, the Jets tallied six and zero points in this barn.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 10.
Play: Dolphins -2½.