The weakness and ambiguity of the 2025 NHL Draft class compared to the last two has diminished some of the buzz.
On Friday night during the draft itself, however, that ambiguity could create quite a bit of excitement. Nobody has a clear sense of how the first round will go. Some prospects could be taken much earlier or later than forecasted. Trades also seem likely.
With those caveats in mind, here’s a rough guess about how things might play out — based on the current draft order — in the NHL’s first (and hopefully last) decentralized draft:
1. Islanders: Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
It’s rare that 17 games are enough to convince scouts that a player should be the No. 1 overall pick, but that’s the case with Schaefer, who missed much of the season with a broken clavicle. He looked excellent in those 17 games and is poised beyond his years, on and off the ice.
The Islanders, who jumped up from 10th in the draft lottery, will land a centerpiece for their rebuild, which hasn’t really begun yet but feels inevitable.
2. Sharks: Michael Misa, C, Saginaw (OHL)
Misa led the OHL with 134 points in 65 games this past season. Only four other forwards even topped 100. He has been penciled in as the likely No. 2 pick for months, but there’s a rumor the Sharks are also considering Anton Frondell.
3. HAWKS: Anton Frondell, C/W, Djurgarden (Sweden)
If the Sharks take Frondell, allowing Misa to slip to No. 3, the Blackhawks would be elated. If the Sharks take Misa, the Hawks will likely decide between either Frondell or Caleb Desnoyers.
Frondell is the higher-risk, higher-reward option, which they can afford because their prospect pool is already so impressive.
4. Mammoth: Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton (QMJHL)
There’s speculation the Mammoth might go off the board here — if they don’t trade the pick — but it’s usually best to not overthink these decisions. Desnoyers, an agile two-way center, is a safe bet to be an impactful NHL player.
5. Predators: James Hagens, C, Boston College
Once considered the best prospect in the class, Hagens was good but not great as a college freshman. His below-average size and struggles to get to dirty areas around the net have some concerned about his NHL upside, but he’s still incredibly talented.
6. Flyers: Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford (OHL)
Opinions vary on the strength of the Flyers’ prospect pool, but opinions have converged about O’Brien being a clear top-10 pick after an impressive second half.
7. Bruins: Brady Martin, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
With their first top-10 pick since 2011, the Bruins could look at Martin, who fits their type as a feisty forward whose tenacity makes him seem bigger than he is.
8. Kraken: Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL)
Martone made a convincing case for himself at the combine. Fans like him a lot, largely because of his size (6-3, 208), but NHL teams are concerned about his slow, clunky skating. Going eighth would be a fall.
9. Sabres: Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
The Sabres have used all five of their first-round picks the last three years on forwards, so they’re a candidate to spring for a defenseman. It’s contested whether Mrtka, Kashawn Aitcheson or Jackson Smith is the second-best defenseman in the class.
10. Ducks: Roger McQueen, C, Brandon (WHL)
Like Schaefer, McQueen also played only 17 games this past season due to injury, and his back issues are concerning. His combine testing eased some worries, however, and there’s no denying he’s a 6-5 center who scores in bunches. The stacked-with-youth Ducks can afford to take the risk.
11. Penguins: Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
The Penguins’ prospect pool has a long way to go, especially on defense, as they begin rebuilding.
12. Rangers: Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
Aitcheson’s supporters love how he brings fire every night. The Rangers often target that type of player.
13. Red Wings: Lynden Lakovic, LW, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Lakovic’s combination of smooth skating and 6-4 height is appealing. His stock has risen recently.
14. Blue Jackets: Carter Bear, LW, Everett (WHL)
Bear can score from anywhere, but an Achilles injury in March is a concern. The Jackets, with a deep pool and two first-round picks, also can afford taking a risk.
15. Canucks: Braeden Cootes, C, Seattle (WHL)
Cootes is a scrappy forward who stood out at the under-18 world championships.
16. Canadiens (from Flames): Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
The Canadiens will consider trading one of their two consecutive picks, but they love to target Quebec natives. Carbonneau is a power forward.
17. Canadiens: Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
Reid, reportedly a Canadiens sweetheart, sits atop of the third tier of defensemen.
18. Flames (from Devils): Victor Eklund, RW, Djurgarden (Sweden)
This would be a fall for Eklund, whose older brother William plays for the Sharks.
19. Blues: Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin
Hensler exceeded expectations as a college freshman. It sounds as though the Blues want to continue adding to their defensive stockpile.
20. Blue Jackets (from Wild): Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
The 6-5 Ravensbergen is considered the top goalie prospect, with Semyon Frolov of Russia just behind him. Teams are always hesitant to draft at goalie — the most unpredictable position in the sport — but the Jackets desperately need a new franchise netminder.
21. Senators: Cole Reschny, C, Victoria (WHL)
Reschny, a versatile North Dakota commit, easily could go earlier, but the Senators wouldn’t mind things working out this way.
22. Flyers (from Avalanche): Jack Nesbitt, C, Windsor (OHL)
With O’Brien and Nesbitt, a physical, 6-4 defensive forward, the Flyers would be loaded up on centers.
23. Predators (from Lightning): Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
The Preds likely will seek a defenseman with this pick if they take Hagens earlier. Fiddler and Sascha Boumedienne are basically interchangeable, but Fiddler is slightly bigger and more consistent. His dad, Vern, played for the Predators, too.
24. Kings: Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University
Boumedienne, conversely, is a better skater with arguably higher upside.
25. HAWKS (from Maple Leafs): Malcolm Spence, LW, Erie (OHL)
Spence, a Michigan commit, didn’t have as explosive an OHL season as expected: 73 points in 65 games. But the 6-2, 201-pounder perfectly matches the Hawks’ preferred traits of speed and work ethic and projects to be a middle-six winger.
There are rumors the Hawks might also consider Vaclav Nestrasil, a towering 6-6 winger committed to UMass who surged as the season progressed.
26. Predators (from Golden Knights): Milton Gastrin, C, Modo (Sweden)
Gastrin is a well-rounded center with no major weaknesses.
27. Capitals: Daniil Prokhorov, RW, St. Petersburg (Russia)
Taking the top Russian prospect would be an on-brand decision for the Capitals.
28. Jets: Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
The Jets have drafted just one defenseman in the first round since 2013, so it’s about time they prioritize that.
29. Hurricanes: Cullen Potter, C, Arizona State
Arguably the fastest skater in the class.
30. Sharks (from Stars): Haoxi Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
Wang is definitely going to be the highest-drafted China native in history (and the third ever), but sneaking into the first round would complete an amazing story.
31. Flyers (from Oilers): Mason West, C, Edina High School, Minn.
West is another interesting prospect as a two-sport athlete. He just committed to Michigan State for hockey, quelling concerns he would choose football instead.
32. Flames (from Panthers): William Horcoff, C, Michigan
It would be fitting for the Flames to select Horcoff, the son of former Oilers captain Shawn Horcoff.
