No. 15 Michigan (4-1 overall, 2-0 Big Ten) at USC (4-1, 2-1)
When: 4:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
TV/radio: NBC (Ch. 4)/ESPN 710
Line: USC by 2.5
NOTABLE INJURIES
USC: OUT: CB Chasen Johnson (undisclosed), K Caden Chittenden (undisclosed), Kilian O’Connor (lower body); QUESTIONABLE: LB Matai Tagoa’i (undisclosed), RB Harry Dalton III (undisclosed), CB Alex Graham (undisclosed), RB Bryan Jackson (undisclosed), OL Elijah Paige (undisclosed), CB Prophet Brown (undisclosed).
Michigan: OUT: LB Jaydon Hood (undisclosed), RB D. Johnson (undisclosed), WR I’Marion Stewart (undisclosed), OL Giovanni El-Hadi (undisclosed), OL Brady Norton (undisclosed), OL Andrew Babalola (undisclosed); QUESTIONABLE: RB Micah Ka’apana (undisclosed), QB Davis Warren (knee), DL Devon Baxter (undisclosed); PROBABLE: TE Hogan Hansen (undisclosed).
What’s at stake? USC wants to bounce back from a 34-32 loss to Illinois – its first of the season — as it begins a difficult three-game stretch this weekend against Michigan. After that, it’s road games against Notre Dame and Nebraska with a bye week in between. The outcome of these games will have implications on the CFP, recruiting and possibly even head coach Lincoln Riley’s future. Riley is 30-15 in his fourth season at USC – former Trojans head coach Clay Helton was 31-14 in his first 45 games. This stretch of games is an opportunity for Riley and the Trojans to get a signature win and continue to pump life into a vintage rivalry after last season’s 27-24 loss to the Wolverines in their Big Ten debut.
Who’s better? Michigan is on a four-game win streak that includes Big Ten wins over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Their last loss was a 24-13 defeat at the hands of No. 18 Oklahoma. The Wolverines have recovered from some consequential injuries, meaning left guard Giovanni El-Hadi and tight end Hogan Hansen will likely return to the field this weekend and give the offense a boost. USC will have a new starting center in J’Onre Reed, who prepared for the role in the bye week after an injury to Kilian O’Connor. This game should have a little bit of everything. Michigan thrives on a bruising run game that’s among the best in the conference in terms of yards per game, while USC has a skilled, explosive offense led by one of the nation’s best passers in Jayden Maiava. The defenses are neck-in-neck statistically in the Big Ten, making for two evenly matched opponents.
Matchup to watch: Michigan running back Justice Haynes vs. the USC defensive line. The Trojans will want to earn the right to rush Wolverines freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, which means shutting down Haynes first. That’s no easy task, considering he’s the Big Ten’s leading rusher and the Trojans’ defense had its worst game of the season two weeks ago in Illinois. USC used the bye week to get back to basics in the trenches, achieve its goal of starting fast and return to the defensive prominence that was apparent in the first four games of the season.
USC wins if: This game could turn into a dogfight. The Trojans will need to maintain composure from top to bottom, especially late in the game. Illinois was a winnable game in spite of the injuries that USC dealt with, but everything unraveled in the fourth quarter due to a pass interference penalty and play-calling that may have been too aggressive.
Prediction: Michigan 27, USC 24. Betting lines seem less trustworthy after the Illinois loss, and Michigan’s brutal physicality is going to make this one difficult.