All “Hat,” no battle?
Heading into the season, Northwestern (+7) at Illinois (6:30 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32, 720-AM, 890-AM) didn’t project as a difficult matchup to size up. The Wildcats were scrapping toward being competitive again, while the Illini were coming off a 10-win season and widely viewed as a College Football Playoff hopeful.
But the visitors are 6-5 and trending up, and the hosts are 7-4 and needing to hold on to the Land of Lincoln trophy — “the Hat,” as it’s known — just to feel OK about where they’re at.
“Nothing better than the last opportunity together,” Illini coach Bret Bielema said about the regular-season finale at Memorial Stadium.
Home field should matter. Quarterback Luke Altmyer should give the Illini an edge. But the weather — cold, with snow in the forecast — is a factor not to be overlooked, and it’s the Wildcats who run the football far more reliably, averaging 174 rushing yards per game. Their QB, Preston Stone, also happens to be the Big Ten’s reigning offensive player of the week, and terrific wide receiver Griffin Wilde is coming off an 11-catch game.
“We’re treating this as postseason play,” Northwestern coach David Braun said. “I know it’s the regular season, but we’re playing for a trophy.”
A battle, it shall be, but I’ve got the Illini eking it out 27-24.
And now, let’s get to what Week 14 is really about: the games — including “The Game” — that will shape the playoff picture heading into conference championship weekend. (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
No. 7 Ole Miss (-7) at Mississippi State (11 a.m. Friday, ABC 7): The Rebels have won four of the last five Egg Bowl games, none by fewer than seven points. Dak Prescott isn’t running through that tunnel for the Bulldogs. Rebs by 10 and on to the CFP.
No. 4 Georgia (-14½) vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech (2:30 p.m. Friday, ABC 7): It’ll be a great scene at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. They don’t call it Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate for nothing. Georgia wins but doesn’t cover.
No. 2 Indiana (-28½) at Purdue (6:30 p.m. Friday, NBC 5, Peacock): Boiler Up? Oh, stop. Hoosiers, 38-14.
No. 1 Ohio State (-10) at No. 15 Michigan (11 a.m., Fox 32): OSU has become a stand-alone superpower, better than everybody else, no ifs, ands or Bucknuts. Also true, insanely: Michigan, which has a real shot at joining the Buckeyes in the playoff if it springs a stop-the-presses upset, has won the last four games over its bitter rival. The edge between the ears is real — until it isn’t. Buckeyes by 14.
No. 12 Miami (-7) at No. 22 Pittsburgh (11 a.m., ABC 7): It’s win or forget the playoff for the Hurricanes. The Panthers still have a path if they take down the U and either SMU or Virginia loses, putting them in the ACC title game with a shot at an automatic bid. Upset? Almost. ’Canes by a kick.
No. 6 Oregon (-7) at Washington (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): The Huskies have won three of the last four, and five of the last nine, in this underrated series. The Ducks are more likely than not to be in the playoff even with a loss, but the pressure on them against a dangerous three-loss team in a supercharged environment will be extreme. Upset? Yep, I’m calling it, 31-30.
LSU (+10) at No. 8 Oklahoma (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): Tigers quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr., in for injured starter Garrett Nussmeier, has done just enough the last two games to squeak past Arkansas and Western Kentucky. If that prepared him for the Sooners’ monstrous defensive front, I can’t imagine how. The Sooners — their offense puzzlingly stuck in low gear, too — are cooked on the playoff front, though, if they go down here. OU, 24-13.
No. 14 Vanderbilt (+2½) at No. 19 Tennessee (2:30 p.m., ESPN): Vandy still has a fair-to-middling shot to be the last at-large in — the Volunteers have no shot — but the dream has to die at some point, doesn’t it? Take Rocky Top.
No. 10 Alabama (-6) at Auburn (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Weird things happen in the Iron Bowl, and weird things are expected by many in this one. I dig weird — who doesn’t? — but I’m rolling with the Tide, 27-14.
No. 9 Notre Dame (-32½) at Stanford (9:30 p.m., ESPN): The playoff committee can’t get away with ranking the two-loss Irish any higher, but eyeballs know there aren’t eight better teams out there. Blowout, 38-7.
Last week: 6-1 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread.
Season to date: 65-26, 45-46.