The Denver Nuggets have been one of the most successful NBA franchises at drafting in the last decade, a reputation that has endured across multiple general manager tenures.
Nikola Jokic is the crown gem, of course, as the most accomplished second-round pick in league history. But the roster is littered with picks that have aged like wine.
Jamal Murray has turned out to be one of the best players from the 2016 class. Michael Porter Jr. was a risk worth taking at No. 14 in 2018. And since Tim Connelly passed the torch to Calvin Booth, Denver has discovered above-average results in late first-rounders Christian Braun and Peyton Watson.
That will be the challenge again this year — a challenge that feels more vital than ever, with the salary cap looming over the Nuggets’ championship window. They possess the 28th overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft, which begins with the first round Wednesday (6 p.m. MT, ESPN). They’ll select 56th overall Thursday in the second round.
Booth has a reputation for valuing more experienced college players, a trend that colors the list of potential draft targets detailed below. In a weak class, the 56th pick probably won’t amount to much more than a two-way contract. So No. 28 is the one that matters.
The Nuggets aren’t likely to trade out of the draft for a player using that pick. If that proves to be the case, pressure is on to nail the pick. Here are 10 names to watch:
DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
Dayton forward DaRon Holmes II (15) dunks against Nevada during the second half of a first-round college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament in Salt Lake City, Thursday, March 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Isaac Hale)
No other prospect has been linked to Denver as much as Holmes, a 6-foot-9 small-ball center who can stretch the floor. Whether or not the Nuggets made a promise to him is unclear, but he’s unlikely to be available at No. 28 regardless. It’s believed that Connelly and the Timberwolves (conveniently, the No. 27 pick) will be among the teams to show interest in Holmes before the Nuggets. But if he is on the board still, he should at least be one of the players Denver considers. Holmes led college basketball in scoring as a roll man last season, dramatically improved his 3-point shooting (38.6%) and continued development as an above-the-rim threat. The Nuggets could benefit from a shot-blocker and dunker at backup five. His measurements for a center are valid worries, however.
Jaylon Tyson, California
California guard Jaylon Tyson (20) goes to the basket as Utah’s Deivon Smith, left, and Gabe Madsen defend during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, March 2, 2024, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
If the Nuggets want more driving in their offense, particularly from their bench, then Tyson makes perfect sense at No. 28. After transferring from Texas Tech, he had a lot of weight on his shoulders for a bad Cal team, so the overarching question with him is how to delineate between high usage and empty calories. Nonetheless, there’s a lot to like about Tyson’s ball-handling and downhill attack mindset for a team that needs more players who are comfortable generating for themselves. His defense is a work in progress for a 6-foot-6 wing, but Denver traditionally loves the potential that’s packaged within positional size.
Enrique Freeman, Akron
Akron’s Enrique Freeman (25), is defended by Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner during the second half of a college basketball game in the first round of the NCAA men’s tournament in Pittsburgh, Thursday, March 21, 2024. Creighton won 77-60. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
The MAC Player of the Year and NCAA leader in rebounding last season (12.9 per game), Freeman worked out with the Nuggets during the pre-draft process. He turns 24 in July after a five-year college career that started as a walk-on with an academic scholarship. Freeman is known as a hard worker with a physical style at 6-7. He’s an exceptional help defender who shows serious on-ball promise as well. But he’s low on most mock drafts due to his offensive limitations. He was used as a post-up center in college, which won’t work at his size in the NBA. The Nuggets could probably trade back and still snatch him in the second round, but Booth also has a history of eschewing the conventional wisdom of mock projections.
Ajay Mitchell, UC Santa Barbara
Ajay Mitchell (13) of the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos runs the offense against the Baylor Bears during the first half of their first round NCAA men’s basketball tournament game at Ball Arena in Denver on Friday, March 17, 2023. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
At 6-3, Mitchell has suitable size for an NBA guard and can create off the dribble, a trait Denver’s roster needs. The 22-year-old sees and manipulates the floor effectively. He has a solid floater and likes to get to his mid-range jumper. Like Holmes, he shot the 3-pointer efficiently in his final college season (39.3%) after struggling in previous years, raising questions of sustainability. Mitchell is another player frequently projected around the middle of the second round, but he’s worked out with Denver.
Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
Baylor Scheierman (55) of the Creighton Bluejays celebrates a three against the Baylor Bears during the first half of their second round NCAA men’s basketball tournament game at Ball Arena in Denver on Sunday, March 19, 2023. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
It seems like over the last few weeks, Scheierman has been mocked to pretty much every title contender with a pick late in the first round. He’s the quintessential plug-and-play role guy every win-now team (including Denver) takes a look at, largely thanks to his time-tested stroke. Scheierman is a great movement shooter who made 39% of his 3s at high volume during a five-year college career between South Dakota State and Creighton. His defensive fit is hazy at best, but he rebounds well for a wing.
Tyler Smith, G League Ignite
Tyler Smith of G League Ignite saves the ball from going out of bounds in the second half of an NBA G League Fall Invitational game against the Perth Wildcats on Sept. 6, 2023 in Henderson, Nev. Ignite defeated the Wildcats 124-105. (Ethan Miller, Getty Images)
Projected in the mid to late 20s, Smith is an outlier candidate in that he’s still a teen. He was mocked to the Nuggets at No. 28 by Yahoo! this week, and he worked out with them recently. The 6-9 forward often exists on the perimeter, knocking down spot-up or pick-and-pop 3s effectively (at NBA distance, no less). He’s not a ball-in-hand offensive player, doing most of his interior scoring as a cutter. Draft experts view defense as a major concern, but Smith has the athleticism to develop there. Does Denver have time for a project?
Isaiah Collier, USC
Southern California guard Isaiah Collier (1) scores on a breakaway dunk against Arizona during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, March 9, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Joining Smith in the under-20 tier is Collier, who was once the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class. His draft stock suffered from a wobbly freshman season, but there are still teams toward the back of the lottery that might bite on him. If he’s available in the 20s, the 6-3 guard is probably worth the risk as one of few prospects in this class with star potential.
KJ Simpson, Colorado
KJ Simpson (2) of the Colorado Buffaloes speaks with teammates during the second half of the Oregon Ducks’ 75-68 Pac-12 Tournament championship game win at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 16, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Basketball aficionados in Colorado don’t need to be told this, but Simpson is a gamer. He has a tight handle, a great eye for when to attack in transition and unusually good rebounding skills for an undersized guard. His athleticism doesn’t seem to be offsetting the typical size concerns in draft projections, but someone will probably be willing to take a gamble on Simpson late in the first round. The Nuggets have worked him out, but do they like the local stud enough to view him as an immediate answer at backup point guard?
Kel’el Ware, Indiana
Indiana center Kel’el Ware (1) shoots while defended by Michigan State center Carson Cooper (15) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Sunday, March 10, 2024, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
One of the toughest-to-project prospects on this list, Ware possesses a set of traits that could make him a steal late in the first round if he’s available. He’s a 7-footer with a 7-4 wingspan. He knocks down 3s (at low volume) and finishes with remarkable efficiency at the rim. But his feel for the game has been roundly questioned by draft analysts, as has his work ethic. Whether it’s Denver or another contender, the Oregon transfer might end up being the most talented player picked in the 20s.
Kyle Filipowski, Duke
Kyle Filipowski of the Duke Blue Devils reacts after scoring during the second half of the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament against the Houston Cougars at American Airlines Center on March 29, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. (Patrick Smith, Getty Images)
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Duke’s star center has a versatile face-up game with better-than-average dribbling and shooting for his position. His strength in the post might be a problem against NBA bigs, and Denver needs a more authoritative defensive rebounder for its second unit. But the offensive skillset makes Filipowski a compelling prospect who might be gone well before 28.
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