Distinguishing between wants and needs is crucial for an NFL general manager, and that requires a more big-picture view than a head coach who might be focused predominantly on the upcoming season.
As Bears coach Ben Johnson steps into the job, there’s no doubt he’s been making a wish list of what he wants from general manager Ryan Poles in the draft this week. It’s hard to ascertain how satisfied Johnson is with the core skill players, including running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Cole Kmet, and he’d probably love adding a weapon like Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty or Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.
But Poles only has so many significant picks. The Bears begin Thursday at No. 10, a spot at which teams hope they’re bringing in a future All-Pro. They have Nos. 39 and 41 in the second round Friday, and it’s reasonable to expect those players to be instant starters and eventual Pro Bowl selections.
Then the draft gets unpredictable.
The Bears surely believe their third-rounder at No. 72 overall is valuable, but Poles took wide receiver Velus Jones in the third in 2022, defensive tackle Zacch Pickens in ’23 and offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie last year, and none have proven to be NFL starters yet. Over the 2022 and ’23 drafts, just 37 of 78 players chosen in the third round have had at least one season as a full-time starter in the league.
So those first three picks are vital, and needs must come before wants.
Of their starting 22, left tackle is the most urgent need. Braxton Jones has been a good story after the Bears picked him in the fifth round out of Southern Utah in 2022, but wasn’t up to standards last season and missed 11 games over the last two seasons.
That puts offensive tackle at the top of their list in the first round. There’s no clear-cut leader this year, though Missouri’s Armand Membou has gained momentum recently. LSU’s Will Campbell, but still is projected to go in the top 10.
In a year in which there is no consensus, Poles and Johnson must make a sharp determination of which prospect is best and go get him. If that means trading up a couple spots, so be it. If they prefer someone like Texas’ Kelvin Banks or Ohio State’s Josh Simmons, they could trade back and still get their guy.
Jones is heading into the final season of his rookie contract, and the Bears have to look down the road to where they think things will stand with him at the end of it. Will Jones be so good that he’s worth a massive extension, or will the team need to spend big in free agency to find someone better?
Neither option is as appealing as drafting and developing. Not only might that player quickly prove better than Jones, but it makes perfect sense from a financial standpoint. The No. 10 pick is projected to get a four-year, $23.7 million contract based on the collective bargaining agreement, whereas 30 NFL tackles are averaging at least $15 million on their current contracts.
The Bears have some salary-cap leeway while quarterback Caleb Williams is on his rookie deal, but they’re set to pay defensive ends Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo $115.3 million over the next three seasons, plus $42.8 million for defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. That’s another reason to use their first-round pick on an offensive tackle.
Then the draft actually opens up for the Bears in the second round. That’s the time at which they’re free to go after one of the better running backs, wide receivers or tight ends.
But any earlier than that would be an error. They learned the hard way last season what happens when the offensive line is unreliable, and there’s no way they can take that chance again.