Knowing full well the significance of the words poised to flow, Kirk Herbstreit began with a hint of hesitation. But once he survived the first phrase, ESPN’s longtime analyst went all-in on eliminating the College Football Playoff’s rankings shows.
“Honestly, I think we should remove, with all due respect, the Tuesday night show, because truly, until all the data is in … then you can look at this fairly,” Herbstreit said on camera.
“To look at this week by week, I just think it sets us up for: ‘That doesn’t make sense. You’ve had Notre Dame ahead, how are you going to flip Miami now?’
“It’s not supposed to be the real rankings until the season’s over.”
Instantly, former Alabama coach Nick Saban chimed in.
“I agree with you,” he told Herbstreit, “because you put yourself in a box.”
With that, ESPN’s most influential voices had taken aim at one of ESPN’s most influential shows: the CFP selection committee’s Tuesday rankings that appear five times during the stretch run.
And they did it 24 hours before the Sunday storm involving Notre Dame and Miami.
The decision to elevate the Hurricanes over the Irish in the final rankings, even though both teams were idle on Championship Saturday, sent Miami into the field as the final at-large and Notre Dame into a rage that continues today.
Also, it shoved the rankings show itself to the forefront of a debate that surfaces every year at this time: Why not simply eliminate the five Tuesday shows that put the committee “in a box”?
That set the stage for outrage, controversy and, above all, an erosion of public trust in the selection process.
At the very least, why not adopt the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s model, in which an early version of the top 16 seeds is revealed once in February, followed by silence from the committee until the official bracket announcement on Selection Sunday?
When ESPN’s preeminent talents, the voice of the sport (Herbstreit) and the greatest coach of all time (Saban), are calling for the network’s weekly shows to go the way of the dodo — when it becomes an inside job — there’s a problem.
But the Tuesday shows are part of the CFP’s exclusive, bajillion-dollar agreement with ESPN. Can the massive albatross be eliminated without consequences?
The Hotline reached out to several experts in the field of sports media contracts, granted anonymity and asked: Would ending the selection shows require an entirely new contract? What would ESPN demand in return from the CFP if the networks agreed to end the Tuesday shows? Exactly how much are they worth to the network?
“There is zero chance” that eliminating the selection shows “would require a new contract” between ESPN and the CFP, one source said via text message. The five Tuesday shows, the source continued, are “a rounding error in the value of the deal.” Their main purpose is to provide “a marketing and ad sales opportunity.”
(The original contract with ESPN, from 2014-26, generated roughly $600 million annually for the CFP. Starting next year, the annual payments will jump to $1.3 billion through 2031.)
So it seems eliminating the Tuesday shows altogether would not be an insurmountable issue contractually or financially.
But for ESPN, the value of those five 30-minute shows is incalculable.
“I’m sure CFP could go to ESPN, but I don’t know that ESPN would be interested in not doing those shows,” another source said. “It makes ESPN the center of the college world in November and December, and I don’t think they want to give that up.”
Or as the first source noted: “The real value is being the place to go for the news, which drives marketplace awareness and provides a sponsorship opportunity.”
If five Tuesday shows undermine the integrity of the process and zero Tuesday shows isn’t an option, the CFP and ESPN should compromise:
— Keep the initial show in place on the first Tuesday of November.
— Eliminate the second and third shows.
— Release the rankings again on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, in advance of rivalry weekend games.
— Finally, eliminate the last Tuesday show, which often becomes the Gordian Knot at the center of CFP selection furor. The combination of its proximity to the conference championships and the paucity of games played that weekend leaves the committee without enough new results to justify major changes for the one ranking that actually matters.
Eliminating the penultimate show would provide the committee with flexibility to materially alter what was revealed just prior to Thanksgiving based on two data sets (rivalry weekend and Championship Saturday).
Cutting the inventory to two Tuesday shows, on the first and fourth weeks, roughly follows the NCAA Tournament model and allows ESPN to remain at the center of the sport’s narrative.
But it would relieve the weekly pressure, giving the process time the breathe and gain legitimacy.
Two other adjustments are essential:
1. Sitting athletic directors should not chair the committee, both because of the appearance of bias it creates (despite the recusal policies) and because they are terrible on TV answering questions from ESPN’s studio analysts, which further erodes public confidence.
2. The committee must increase transparency. Whether it’s strength-of-schedule or strength-of-record or the so-called game control, the data points driving decisions should be revealed.
But neither of those changes requires approval from the CFP’s broadcast partner, which has a vested interest in generating content that undermines the integrity of the selection process.
It’s shocking that the conferences, in their breathless quest for every last dollar, would enter into a financial agreement that runs counter to the best interests of their most important product.
*** Previously published Hotline articles on sports media:
— Fox, CBS should flip windows to help the Big Ten’s West Coast teams
— Brett Yormark’s “GameDay” pursuit and the Big 12’s media strategy
— Pac-12 completes media rights package: USA Network joins CBS and The CW
— Friday night football is a ratings success; are doubleheaders next?
— Our plan to save the USC-Notre Dame series
— How the Week 5 games highlight CBS’ big whiff with the SEC
— Explaining the 11 p.m. (ET) kickoff time for USC-Michigan State
— Dave Portnoy and Ohio State is a dangerous game for Fox
— The Big 12’s social media game is clever, proactive and undaunted
— Low ratings, NFL conflicts make it clear: CFP calendar needs to change
— Thanksgiving Eve is an open broadcast window the Big 12, Pac-12 should exploit
— Explaining the Big Ten’s TV selection process
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