Optimist vs. Pessimist: Where are the new-look Bears headed with Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams?

It’s easy for some to be optimistic a week before the start of the 2025 season.

The Bears, after all, are undefeated.

Others, though, choose time-tested pessimism.

The Bears, after all, are winless.

A good analyst can argue either side, and that’s exactly what the Sun-Times’ Jason Lieser and Patrick Finley will do as they break down the three most pressing issues facing the Bears when they kick off the season Sept. 8 against the Vikings.

Prediction: Caleb Williams will be a breakout star.

Optimist (Lieser): How could he not be? The former No. 1 overall pick got every enhancement he could’ve wanted: the hottest coach on the market in Ben Johnson, a renovated offensive line and a fully fortified group of skill players. All of that should add up to the best possible version of Williams.

And while he was up and down as a rookie, he did progress. Playing in a dysfunctional situation under Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron and with a faulty offensive line, he set an encouraging floor for himself. Amid all those problems, he finished middle of the pack in the NFL in yards passing and touchdown passes and threw the 10th-fewest interceptions — all while being pressured constantly and playing in a limited system.

With Johnson’s efficiency-driven approach, look for Williams’ completion percentage to rise from the disappointing 62.5 he posted last season. Johnson set the target at 70%, which will be hard to hit, but even a five-point jump would make a big difference.

With better talent around him, the coaching expertise he craved in place and all the knowledge gained from surviving his first season in the league, everything points toward Williams taking a big step toward becoming the player the Bears envisioned when they drafted him last year.

Pessimist (Finley): Bears fans who suffered through Justin Fields and Mitch Trubisky won’t believe that Williams is the answer until they see it happen. And it hasn’t happened yet. In fact, there were days during training camp when Williams’ breakout seemed less probable than when he was preparing for his rookie season.

Bears coaches say that they threw everything at Williams to see what he could handle. Stumbling, they said, was understandable.

We’ll see.

Pairing him with Johnson is the best argument for Williams to make a leap. He’s not the first to get a new play-caller in Year 2, and the move doesn’t always kick-start a quarterback’s career.

Williams is the sixth quarterback drafted first overall in the last 10 years to have his original coach fired after one season. Two made the Pro Bowl, went to the playoffs and had a passer rating of 95 or higher in Year 2: Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. The other three posted passer ratings below league average: Jameis Winston (86.1) Baker Mayfield (78.8) and Bryce Young (82.2).

When the Bears drafted Williams, they thought they put him in the best possible position to develop into a superstar. After a rookie year that went sideways — and produced the third-most sacks ever — it seems like more of a 50-50 shot.

Prediction: Johnson will be the coach the Bears have been waiting for.

Optimist (Lieser): Since firing Lovie Smith after going 10-6 in 2012, the Bears have posted double-digit wins just once and cycled through coaches like crazy. Johnson will be their fifth head coach in 13 seasons.

The question isn’t whether he can win immediately, but rather consistently. The Bears are hoping this can give them the kind of stability and continuity that Sean McVay has given the Rams, for example, and those are sky-high expectations.

The promising thing about Johnson in the long run is that everything he has done so far has been sound. He asserted himself in the personnel department to tilt the roster toward his scheme. He hired a diverse set of assistants instead of simply trying to bring in a bunch of his friends. He has enforced absolute accountability on the practice field and set an entirely different tone than the one he encountered when he arrived at Halas Hall.

It’ll be difficult to win right away, especially in the rugged NFC North where everyone else won 11-plus games last season and has an established coach, but expect Johnson to eventually rise to their level.

Pessimist (Finley): Ninety-two years ago, George Halas was named head coach of the Bears and rode Bronko Nagurski, Red Grange and Bill Hewitt to a 10-2-1 record and a championship. Since then (and not counting the four years the Bears had co-coaches), only one first-time Bears head coach has posted a winning record in Year 1: Matt Nagy in 2018. The 10 others went a combined 54-93-1.

First years, then, are supposed to be hard — particularly in the toughest division in football, where the Bears are favored to finish dead last. For good measure, Micah Parsons now plays for the one team everyone inside Halas Hall needs Johnson to beat.

It would be foolish to expect things to go swimmingly on the field in Year 1. And there’s no way to declare Johnson the head coach the Bears have been longing for without actually winning games.

Prediction: The Bears’ defense will be the strength of their team.

Optimist (Lieser): While the defensive depth chart still has some question marks, there’s too much talent overall for this group to struggle. The Bears would’ve been a better defense last season if they’d been in better hands.

At the top of the hierarchy, cornerback Jaylon Johnson is among the elite at his position, defensive end Montez Sweat is 28 and two seasons ago had 12½ sacks and made the Pro Bowl. Nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon is not only one of the best at his spot, but has an ability to erase others’ mistakes. Veteran defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has been unstoppable most of the preseason.

The test for new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is whether he can get the best out of players like defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.

While Allen’s head-coaching opportunities didn’t work out, he has a strong track record as a defensive strategist, and there’s enough here with which to work.

Pessimist (Finley): The Bears believe they can be a top-10 defense, but they don’t fit the profile of one. Of the top 10 defenses last year, as graded by Pro Football Focus, six had a player finish the season in the top 18 in the league in sacks. Three top-10 defenses had two of those players, and a fourth, the Browns, traded their second player midway through the season.

Who on the Bears is finishing in the top 18 in sacks? It’s hard to argue for one, much less two. Those in the top 18 had nine sacks or more last year. Sweat has topped that total exactly once in his career. Odeyingbo, the Bears’ big-money acquisition, has never topped eight. Neither has Jarrett. Last year, the three — who have a total $40 million cap hit this season — combined for 11.

Allen will be forced to dial up blitzes to pressure the quarterback. As Eberflus could tell him, that’s never any play-caller’s first choice.