LAS VEGAS — An excavation of this summer’s World Cup participants reveals a powerhouse that has replaced prominence with supreme young talent, a veteran star taking last kicks and a Norwegian steam train.
Erling Haaland, the 25-year-old, 6-5 locomotive for Manchester City in England’s Premier League, is poised to power Norway to its finest showing on the global stage.
Norway is 2-3-3 in three World Cups. With 51 international goals, Haaland has soared past Jørgen Juve’s previous Norwegian high of 33. And with 46 caps, or national appearances, Haaland also passed Juve (45).
In Alexander Sørloth and Antonio Nusa, Haaland has sterling scoring complements. Ørjan Nyland is the 6-4 goalkeeper who has four shutouts in World Cup qualifying for 6-0 Norway.
Haaland, however, is the one on the precipice of global superstardom, which he could earn this summer.
Out of last weekend, Haaland had 11 goals in nine Premier League matches for Man City. In those six qualifiers, he scored 12 times.
We have a Norway title ticket, at 50-to-1 odds at Circa Sports, as a potentially valuable hedge. We’ll monitor Norway in its group, especially in knockout tilts against non-Euro foes, and act accordingly.
Field expands to 48
As usual, Paul Caligiuri served as a solid sounding board.
“Man City with Haaland,” he told me, “would crush Norway with Haaland.”
Truth, I acknowledged to the U.S. Soccer Hall of Famer and great pal. We attended Walnut High in Southern California decades ago.
This is a sweet calendar spot before the World Cup field is set to grab value plays in the Dec. 5 draw in Washington.
Forty-eight sides, boosted from the usual 32, will be lopped into 12 groups. The finale is set for Sunday, July 19, at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Circa still had 50-1 on Norway on Thursday, as did the Westgate SuperBook. Draft-Kings posted 35-1 on the Norwegians.
Caligiuri knows Haaland is a star on a blue-chip roster in Manchester, whereas his fellow countrymen might not be so adept at feeding the ball to the finisher. Still, this is about taking chances.
I’ve also invested, at 10-1 Circa odds, in Portugal, 3-0-1 in its last four qualifiers, in which star striker Cristiano Ronaldo scored five of its 11 goals.
Ronaldo, 40, shed tears in Munich when the Portuguese beat Spain in the UEFA Nations League finale on penalty kicks in June, and a World Cup title would slap a world-class bow on his stellar career.
Exactly what the Qatar 2022 crown did for Argentine Lionel Messi.
French dominance
Caligiuri tapped France, +650 at Draft-Kings, to make its third consecutive World Cup championship match and claim its third trophy.
On home turf, the French won in 1998. In 2018, they defeated Croatia 4-2 in the Moscow finale. Four years ago, they lost to Messi and Argentina on penalty kicks in Qatar.
“I don’t want France to win it; I just think it will,” Caligiuri told me. “I’d like to see the French play Germany along the way because those two sides hate each other so much.”
He called Kylian Mbappe, France’s dynamic finisher, “the man.” In that ’22 Qatar finale, Mbappe scored three times for France; Messi had two of Argentina’s three goals.
Mbappe will be 27 for his third World Cup this summer and already has 93 caps, in which he has scored 53 goals and dished out 33 assists.
In six World Cup qualifying matches, Mbappe has five goals and two assists. In nine matches for Real Madrid in La Liga, he has 10 goals and two assists.
For the Golden Boot, Caligiuri said France’s success will depend on Mbappe, so he’ll be the favorite. Haaland, Ronaldo and Harry Kane of England figure to round out that proposition’s top four picks.
When the draw is revealed, Caligiuri recommended playing it out and betting sides to advance in the knockout stages against non-European opponents.
Brazil vs. Spain?
In Toronto, expert WagerTalk soccer handicapper Carmine Bianco envisions the expanded tournament favoring the planet’s elite squads, with solid starting lineups and rich depth.
He likes France and favors Spain, which, at +445 at Circa, was my largest investment. The Spanish are +450 at DraftKings.
“Many, if not all, of their squad,” Bianco said of the Spaniards, “are having exceptional seasons for their domestic sides.
“And after winning Euro 2024 [over England], they are poised to make a deep run in this tournament and add another trophy to their case, led by Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Gavi, to name a few.”
They are 18, 22 and 21, respectively.
Bianco also grabbed exceptional early tickets, of +900 and 10-1, on Brazil. This isn’t the Samba Soccer, Bianco explained, that made Brazil famous.
“The mentality of this team is being transformed under Italian manager Carlo Ancelotti, a winner everywhere he’s appeared,” Bianco said.
“They’re a strong defensive side with counterattacking abilities. They could go deep, too, to restore soccer glory and add a trophy for the fan base.”
Big returns
For long shots — again, as hopeful knockout hedges — I’ve got 80-1 Japan (outscored 10 foes 30-3 in qualifying), South Korea (no defeats in 10 qualifiers) and 2,000-1 Qatar (featuring hotshot scorer Almoez Ali).
Bianco leaned toward the Netherlands, with a strong back line and creative midfield, at 20-1.
“Don’t go crazy,” he said, “but there’s plenty of talent in the Dutch side.”