The Pac-12 dissolved 14 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
A forgettable weekend turned worse for Oregon as the results rolled in Saturday afternoon, then went next-level bad when the Associated Press Top-25 poll was released Sunday morning.
It wasn’t enough that the Ducks were beaten soundly on their home field by Indiana. They are now hurtling toward the worst possible scenario for anyone who bleeds green and yellow:
Rooting for Washington.
And USC.
That blood-curdling future is rooted not in the Big Ten championship race but, rather, the College Football Playoff selection process.
Here’s why:
The Ducks (5-1) will easily advance to the CFP if they win out. But a second regular-season loss would create a curious situation if Oregon finishes in third or fourth place — perhaps alone, perhaps in a tie — and is a candidate for the at-large pool.
That could be a slightly precarious position if the Ducks have a glaring hole in their resume: No wins over teams in the CFP selection committee’s final rankings.
The CFP rankings, which begin their weekly rollout in November, aren’t identical to the AP Top 25 poll, but they are typically close enough to offer a reasonable proxy for this discussion.
As anyone who has followed the selection process over the years knows, victories over ranked opponents is an important metric for the committee.
None of Oregon’s wins to date have come against teams currently appearing in the AP poll — the victory at Penn State has lost all value — and only one of the six remaining opponents is currently ranked (No. 20 USC).
If the Ducks finish 10-2 with no wins over ranked opponents, there are zero guarantees, especially if other teams in the two-loss cluster possess that which Oregon lacks.
Yes, Indiana made the CFP last year without beating a ranked team, but the Hoosiers were 11-1, not 10-2.
In fact, only two teams finished 10-2, did not reach their conference championship and still qualified for the CFP through the at-large field: Ohio State and Tennessee.
The Buckeyes had two wins over ranked teams (Penn State and Indiana), and the Volunteers had one (Alabama).
If the Ducks finish 10-2 and get boxed out of the Big Ten championship, they might need at least one victory over a ranked opponent to win a resume showdown against a two-loss SEC team.
Their upcoming schedule features Rutgers (3-3), Wisconsin (2-4), Iowa (4-2), Minnesota (4-2), USC (5-1) and Washington (5-1).
Only the Trojans and Huskies have a reasonable path to the selection committee’s final Top 25, but they need to keep winning.
The process of rooting for the enemy begins in earnest this weekend, when Washington visits Michigan and USC heads to Notre Dame.
Repeat after me, Duck fans: “Go Huskies!”
How hard was that?
To the bowl projections …
College Football PlayoffTeam: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)Comment: The sweetest of CFP spots is the second tier, the No. 5-8 seeds, which don’t have the three-and-a-half week break and host an opening-round game. The worst spot? The No. 9-12 seeds, which are on the road in the opening round.
Alamo BowlTeam: USCComment: We can’t discount the possibility, however remote, that USC (5-1) emerges as a playoff contender. The Trojans would have to navigate a schedule that includes trips to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon with no more than one loss.
Las Vegas BowlTeam: WashingtonComment: The Hotline has officially set UW’s regular-season win total at 8.5, based on the Huskies’ current record (5-1) and the upcoming schedule. Whether they finish 9-3 or 8-4 should not, however, have a significant impact on their bowl tier.
Holiday BowlTeam: UtahComment: Quick reminder for the Utes (5-1) and every team listed here: Bowl officials will select teams based on overall record, not conference record. Additionally, bowls have the option to use the one-win-down rule in which they can pass over Team X in favor of Team Y if there is no more than a one-game difference in record.
Sun BowlTeam: Arizona StateComment: How teams perform relative to expectations can impact selections, because bowls view disappointing seasons as indications that ticket sales and hotel bookings will be light. If the Sun Devils (4-2) finish with three or four losses, they could slide.
LA BowlTeam: Washington StateComment: The key game for the Cougars (3-3) isn’t this week, when they visit Virginia. It’s next week, when they host Toledo. Lose to the Rockets, and the path to six wins narrows substantially.
ESPN bowlTeam: ArizonaComment: Brent Brennan was spot on about the double-edged nature of the loss to BYU: The Wildcats (4-2) are good enough to push one of the best teams in the conference to overtime but not good enough to make the handful of plays necessary to beat one of the best.
ESPN bowlTeam: CalComment: The likely destinations within the ESPN pool of games are the Armed Forces, First Responders and Gasparilla Bowls. We aren’t sure any of those would satisfy Cal’s administration, which is on-the-record indicating six or seven wins isn’t good enough.
Non-qualifierTeam: ColoradoComment: Despite the victory over Iowa State — a modest upset, for sure — the Buffaloes (3-4) have too few wins, and too many difficult games remaining, for the Hotline to declare a bowl bid the most likely outcome.
Non-qualifierTeam: Oregon StateComment: Don’t be surprised if the Beavers (0-7) experience a short-term bounce following the dismissal of Trent Bray. Too little too late is better than nothing at all.
Non-qualifierTeam: StanfordComment: Not on our ACC bingo card for 2025: The Cardinal (2-4) would have a one-game lead over Florida State in the standings when the Seminoles make their mid-October visit.
Non-qualifierTeam: UCLAComment: The Bruins (2-4) can beat anyone on their remaining schedule or lose to anyone on their remaining schedule. Nothing would surprise us. But we won’t attempt to predict how the final six weeks will play out.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline