The Pac-12 dissolved in 2024, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are locked into the postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
Arizona was quietly and subtly one of the Big 12’s biggest winners last weekend despite watching the mayhem from home.
The Wildcats were not victorious in a material sense, of course.
Their record didn’t improve: They are one game over .500 and closer to the bottom of the Big 12 than the top.
Their bowl math did not change: They must win two of their final five to claim a spot in the postseason.
Their gut-punch losses to BYU and Houston in prior weeks did not magically transform into wins, although the former’s victory at Iowa State and the latter’s win at Arizona State certainly added context to the Wildcats’ narrow losses to both. (The Wildcats went to the wire with teams that have a combined record of 15-1.)
So what changed while Arizona relaxed and recovered and prepared for the stretch run? The forecast changed, and not by a little.
It brightened considerably based on developments across the Big 12 and courtesy of the Big 12.
Rarely are victories presented on gilded platters, particularly in conference play. But it now appears the Big 12 gifted the Wildcats a stupendous opportunity by scheduling a bye week before their trip to Colorado and handing the Buffaloes one of the toughest assignments in the conference: a night game in Salt Lake City.
How did that turn out?
Colorado’s 53-7 loss at Utah doesn’t begin to reflect the immensity of the wipeout. The Buffaloes trailed by 43 points at halftime. Their total yards in the first and second quarters: -18.
The Buffaloes cannot run the ball or stop the run. Their quarterback play is substandard. There are no playmakers on the perimeter, and coach Deion Sanders looks as weary as he does frustrated.
The Buffaloes (3-5) not only look beatable, they look beaten — like a team that just lost by 46 points and knew it could have been 76 if the opponent had not been merciful.
Can Arizona take advantage?
Better question: What would it say about the Wildcats if they don’t take advantage?
Now, to be clear: A loss in Boulder would not doom Arizona to a bowl-less existence this winter. The Wildcats would have four chances to secure the two victories necessary for a postseason bid.
Two of those opportunities — the best two, in fact — are against middle-level opponents that lost on Saturday.
That’s right, folks. Colorado’s faceplant wasn’t the only positive indicator to emerge from the weekend for the Wildcats. The teams scheduled to visit Tucson in November also lost decisively.
Kansas was embarrassed at home by Kansas State (42-17) while Baylor was beaten soundly at Cincinnati (41-20).
But if the Wildcats cannot handle reeling Colorado with two weeks to prepare, are they capable of beating anyone left on the schedule?
Kansas and Baylor won’t be confused for Big 12 contenders, but they are better than Colorado. They have better quarterbacks and better playmakers and better resumes.
All of which makes the trip to Boulder much more than a stellar opportunity for the Wildcats to collect victory No. 5. It’s a window into their prospects for the final month.
If they aren’t capable of opening a gift delivered to the doorstep, what chance do they have to win a single game down the stretch?
To the bowl projections …
College Football PlayoffTeam: OregonComment: One positive development for the Ducks (7-1) within the otherwise lackluster victory over Wisconsin: Quarterback Dante Moore gained valuable experience playing in the rain just in case the weather doesn’t cooperate in Seattle for the regular-season finale.
Alamo BowlTeam: WashingtonComment: The Huskies (6-2) need to run the table and beat a ranked opponent to have a legitimate shot at the CFP. One opponent, Oregon, is the key to achieving both goals.
Las Vegas BowlTeam: UtahComment: Current Hotline projections call for the Utes (6-2) to win three of their final four and finish with nine wins. That would propel them into the mix for the Las Vegas Bowl, but their appearance in Sin City in December 2023 could give bowl officials pause.
Holiday BowlTeam: USCComment: Four of five remaining opponents have winning records and the fifth, UCLA, is plenty capable of winning a head-to-head duel. As a result, we foresee at least two losses for the Trojans (5-2), which could drop them to the second tier of the Pac-12 bowl lineup.
Sun BowlTeam: Arizona StateComment: Life on the margins in a conference loaded with parity means there’s a ridiculously fine line between first place and sixth place. Last year, more went right than wrong for the Sun Devils (5-3). This year, the scale appears tilted the other way.
LA BowlTeam: Washington StateComment: The defense is playing well enough for the Hotline to increase its victory projection for the Cougars (4-4). We now envision a sweep of Oregon State and a win over Louisiana Tech pushing their final record to 7-5. At that level, the Sun Bowl is a distinct possibility.
ESPN bowlTeam: ArizonaComment: When the resistible force (Colorado’s run game) faces a moveable object (Arizona’s run defense), something has to give? Or maybe not.
ESPN bowlTeam: CalComment: Watching the Bears (5-3) stick with the same defensive alignment as Virginia Tech piled up yardage with its running game reminded us of the definition of stupidity. And watching Cal slog through yet another October reminds us that coach Justin Wilcox’s seat could turn quite warm quite quickly down the stretch.
Non-qualifierTeam: ColoradoComment: As the weeks pass and losses mount for CU (3-5), it seemingly grows more likely that this will be Deion Sanders’ final season in Boulder. And if that’s the case, the three years would have been an incredible success for the football program and the university.
Non-qualifierTeam: Oregon StateComment: The Beavers (1-7) could have competition from Colorado State, which just fired Jay Norvell, and any of the new Pac-12 schools that lose head coaches to gigs at the power conference level. Which means the price to land their preferred choice could climb.
Non-qualifierTeam: StanfordComment: The Cardinal (3-5) need to win three of its final four games to secure a bowl berth, and play North Carolina on the road and Pitt, Cal and Notre Dame at home. Which means they need to beat North Carolina, Pitt and Cal.
Non-qualifierTeam: UCLAComment: Keep in mind that the Bruins (3-5) built their three-game Big Ten winning streak on opponents (Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland) with a combined record of 1-12 in conference play. In other words: creampuffs.
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