Welcome to the Hotline’s weekly assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 that imagines them competing in the conference this season. (We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion.) The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
On the final night of the final weekend of the regular season, a path into the College Football Playoff opened for the collection of teams that will form the rebuilt Pac-12.
Can a conference that won’t exist for seven months pounce on the opportunity and ride CFP momentum into its first season of competition?
It seems unlikely.
Cal’s victory over SMU added a layer of complexity to the ACC race that could have sweeping repercussions.
The result knocked the Mustangs out of the conference championship game and created a spot for Duke, which has five losses and isn’t ranked by the CFP selection committee.
The 12-team playoff format carves out automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions. If the ACC winner is ranked lower than the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC winners, plus two champs from Group of Five leagues, it will not advance to the CFP.
That unthinkable scenario is now a few short steps from reality.
If No. 18 Virginia wins the championship, the conference will be fine. But if the Blue Devils (7-5) are victorious in Charlotte on Saturday, there’s trouble. Two of their five losses were to Tulane and Connecticut — they could very well be ranked behind two Group of Five winners.
But which two? The American champion, North Texas (11-1) or Tulane (10-2), is well positioned for an automatic bid.
James Madison (11-1) is heavily favored in the Sun Belt. But if Troy (8-4) wins, the selection committee might have three candidates for one spot: Duke, Troy and the winner of the Mountain West championship between Boise State and UNLV, whose awful schedule harms its chances.
The Broncos would be 9-4 if they win. Good enough to squeeze into the field ahead of Duke or Troy? It’s possible but not likely. Our hunch is the committee would favor Duke following what would be a victory over a ranked opponent (Virginia).
But there’s enough opportunity at the Group of Five level, thanks to chaos in the ACC, to make for a riveting championship week that — who knows? — could impact a conference that doesn’t even exist.
To the power rankings …
1. San Diego State (9-3)
Result: lost at New Mexico 23-17 (2OT)
Next up: bowl game
Comment: The Aztecs would have been a strong candidate for the CFP, thanks partly to wins over Cal and Boise State, but the loss in Albuquerque sent them plunging into the Mountain West tiebreaker and, ultimately, blocked their path to the title. (Previous: 1)
2. Boise State (8-4)
Result: won at Utah State 25-24
Next up: vs.UNLV (Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Broncos have made major progress since the early-November skid and season-ending loss of quarterback Maddux Madsen (to injury). That shouldn’t come as a surprise with Spencer Danielson at the helm, and yet … we thought they were toast. (Previous: 2)
3. Washington State (6-6)
Result: beat Oregon State 32-8
Next up: bowl game
Comment: If the Cougars have any regrets, the list should start with that 10-7 loss at Oregon State that’s even harder to comprehend today than it was at the time — and it was pretty darn mind-boggling back then. That said, it won’t have a major impact on their postseason destination. (Previous: 3)
4. Fresno State (8-4)
Result: won at San Jose State 41-14
Next up: bowl game
Comment: The Bulldogs seemingly hit the sweet spot with enough wins to generate offseason momentum but not enough to transform first-year coach Matt Entz into one of the hottest candidates on the market. (Previous: 5)
5. Utah State (6-6)
Result: lost to Boise State 25-24
Next up: bowl game
Comment: In their two games against the teams that will meet for the Mountain West championship, the Aggies scored 50 points. UNLV and Boise State scored 54. (Previous: 4)
6. Texas State (6-6)
Result: beat South Alabama 49-26
Next up: bowl game
Comment: The Bobcats’ final season in the Sun Belt did not go as they planned or we expected. But at least there’s one game left to play. (Previous: 6)
7. Oregon State (2-10)
Result: lost at Washington State 32-8
Next up: season complete
Comment: Two seasons in Pac-12 limbo produced 17 losses, seven wins, two wipeouts against Oregon, no bowl bids, irate fans and a coaching change. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado State (2-10)
Result: lost to Air Force 42-21
Next up: season complete
Comment: The Jim Mora offseason should generate as much excitement as the 2025 regular season produced disappointment, because it was a sensational hire. (Previous: 8)
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