Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — an assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 as if they were competing in the conference this season. We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion. The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The new Pac-12 is beginning to resemble the old Pac-12 in one unflattering fashion. It’s early November, and the conference is effectively (but not officially) eliminated from the College Football Playoff race.
Granted, the rebuilt Pac-12 doesn’t officially exist until next summer.
But the collection of eight football-playing schools scheduled to link arms would certainly have done their future home a brand-building favor by making a serious charge for the present playoff — for the spot reserved for the highest-ranked team from outside the power conferences.
That path was narrow but navigable until late Saturday night, when one-loss San Diego State was sent home from Hawaii with a 38-6 stain on its resume.
At this point, the Aztecs have two losses and every other team scheduled for the rebuilt Pac-12 has at least three. That’s problematic for the CFP calculation because of the strength of the American, which has a one-loss team (North Texas) and a slew of two-loss teams with stout resumes.
One result leaps off the screen: South Florida 34, Boise State 7.
That Week 1 battering could play a central role in the CFP selection committee’s cross-conference evaluation of contenders — even if the Broncos don’t win the Mountain West.
Yes, San Diego State’s victory over Cal gained heft on Saturday when the Bears (6-4) upset No. 14 Louisville, but the Aztecs now have two lopsided defeats (Washington State and Hawaii) to teams outside the Power Four.
The situation is fluid, of course. But with three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Aztecs seemingly are the only future Pac-12 school with a viable chance to reach the CFP.
Their prospects, however, are just this side of nil.
To the power rankings …
1. San Diego State (7-2)
Result: lost at Hawaii 38-6Next up: vs. Boise State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)Comment: It says a lot about the state of these eight that the Aztecs retained the top spot after a blowout loss, and not a lick of what it says is complimentary. (Previous: 1)
2. Fresno State (6-3)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. Wyoming (7:30 p.m. on FS1)Comment: Tough to elevate the Bulldogs into the top spot given that they lost decisively to San Diego State a few weeks ago, but we thought long and hard about it. (Previous: 2)
3. Boise State (6-3)
Result: did not playNext up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)Comment: The head-to-head results — SDSU smacked Fresno State, and FSU whacked Boise State — clearly indicate the Broncos are slotted in the right place. The uncertainty over quarterback Maddux Madsen’s return simply adds to our forecast for a substandard finish for Boise State. (Previous: 3)
4. Washington State (4-5)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. Louisiana Tech (7 p.m. on The CW)Comment: A loss to Louisiana Tech would create a must-win game for the Cougars (to make their bowl math work) when they visit James Madison (8-1) the following week. That’s a position to avoid at all costs. (Previous: 4)
5. Utah State (5-4)
Result: beat Nevada 51-14Next up: at UNLV (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)Comment: Three games left, one win needed for bowl eligibility and an extremely difficult schedule awaiting: at UNLV, at Fresno State, vs. Boise State. Best of luck to the Aggies; they need it. (Previous: 7)
6. Texas State (3-6)
Result: lost at Louisiana 42-39Next up: at Southern Mississippi (12:30 p.m. on ESPN+)Comment: Not that the Pac-12 would boot the Bobcats before they officially join the conference, but this isn’t exactly the trajectory anyone expected when the invitation was extended over the summer. (Previous: 6)
7. Oregon State (2-8)
Result: lost to Sam Houston State 21-17Next up: at Tulsa (10 a.m. on ESPN+)Comment: Losing at home to the previously winless Bearkats constitutes the biggest embarrassment of OSU’s embarrassing season. (Previous: 5)
8. Colorado State (2-7)
Result: lost at New Mexico 42-10Next up: at New Mexico (12 p.m. on Mountain West Network)Comment: In all candor, there are more good options for the bottom of the Pac-12 2.0 power rankings than the top. (Previous: 8)
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