LAS VEGAS — It came down to Houston, the ball teetering metaphorically on the rim, as likely to drop through the cylinder and net as it might slip off this side of the metal.
After drilling the NCAA Tournament’s first-round favorites as a litmus test, I hammered away. Four months of gathering futures action, choice title tickets being 40-1 and 50-1 on Florida, had filled the portfolio.
So I finagled a way to capitalize on the opening games that Thursday and Friday. I parlayed the moneylines of eight discerning favorites, for an edge, a safe octopus.
All won, the eight-way beauty returning 35% on my investment. What -other legal avenue in this country could produce such profit in 48 hours?
That test run showed me the way. I attacked the second weekend with zeal. The Sweet 16 meant four games March 27, four more the following day.
I parlayed all eight favorites, on their moneylines and with six-point teases. I also assembled two four-team teasers, both consisting of two games each day.
Thursday produced close calls. Duke (-9.5) beat Arizona 100-93. I won, though, by having teased that down to 3.5 points. Texas Tech (-5.5) rallied furiously to beat Arkansas 85-83 in overtime.
Teasing the Red Raiders down to plus a half-point saved my bacon.
Friday started ominously in the sportsbook as the first game, Michigan State -4 against Ole Miss, produced detractors badgering the Spartans and coach Tom Izzo relentlessly.
The Spartans trailed throughout the first half. I left. I always get itchy, anyway, watching anything on which I’ve risked even a buck with others. Recorded episodes of the stellar HBO series “100 Foot Wave” awaited me at home.
Grazie, Houston
I barely made it through three of the hourlong documentaries before drifting to sleep.
Saturday morning, I awoke and immediately checked Friday scores. Michigan State beat the Rebels 73-70. Take that, loudmouths. Teasing Sparty down to plus two points had, again, saved my bacon.
The curveball was Houston’s 62-60 triumph over Purdue. The Cougars gave 7.5 points in many places, but what had I bought?
I plucked the ticket out of the Cuban cigar box. Had I teased Houston down from 8.5, 8 or 7.5 points? Thankfully, the teased parlay ticket read, “Houston -1.5.”
I had nailed both the eight-team moneyline parlay (at 12-to-1 odds) and the eight-way teaser (+700 payoff), plus the pair of four-way teasers, at +150 apiece.
Moreover, I’d cash “to reach Elite Eight” future ducats on Houston (-140), Tennessee (+110) and Texas Tech (+125).
If I had experienced such fortune, I figured, then very likely the rest of the world had been in on it, too.
Brutal for books
It was.
“We wound up getting murdered,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told me Monday morning. “With all favorites winning and a lot of [crud] going into the late games, we got beat up.”
Through two weeks of the tourney, favorites were 48-12 in outright wins. In a text message, Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson concurred with Andrews.
“We got crushed,” Benson wrote. “The next win we have will be the first. All the parlays got home. Brutal for us, but nobody feels sorry for the house.”
According to industry veteran Jay Kor-negay at the Westgate SuperBook, commoners have caused the commotion.
“This tournament wasn’t dominated by sharps,” Kornegay told FoxSports.com contributor Patrick Everson. “It was dominated by recreational players.”
Andrews elaborated because punters tied those hoop tilts to other games.
So when Las Vegas Review-Journal betting writer Todd Dewey rang Andrews after Sunday’s last college game, Auburn’s 70-64 victory over Michigan State, Andrews said his shop “did OK.”
Hours later, an Andrews associate texted him with the day’s final tally.
“I said, ‘Holy [bleep]! How the hell did we lose so much money?’ Well, all parlays,” Andrews said. “NBA, baseball, hockey, everything got funneled into those late games.”
Duke -4.5 against Houston and Florida -2.5 versus Auburn comprise Saturday’s national semifinals in San Antonio. The winners play in Monday’s championship.
“Come Saturday,” Andrews said, “we’ll probably be rooting for the dogs.”
No respite
For Andrews, though, the bigger issue is that favorites have dominated the big board since NFL games in November.
“I’ve been doing this for 46 years,” he said. “You book the straight bets, maneuver them, and parlays eventually take care of themselves. But for the past five months, they haven’t been taking care of themselves.
“It’s been a lot of chalk in virtually every sport. November, December, January, February, March … and here we are, five months later, with very little respite from these guys beating us.”
Andrews paused to review his career and could recall maybe several such stretches over two or three months.
“But five months?” he said. “This is certainly one of the worst.”
Had Andrews heard from his boss, South Point hotel and casino owner Michael Gaughan, the 82-year-old son of the late -Vegas pioneer Jackie Gaughan?
“No, he’s been in Ireland,” Andrews laughed. “I’ll hear about it, probably, but he’s pretty understanding.
“I’ve been doing this a long time, but he’s been doing it even longer.”