The Bears believed they had the best of both worlds when the No. 1 draft pick fell into their lap at seemingly the perfect time. They’d take former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and bring the consensus most NFL-ready quarterback into a one-of-a-kind scenario with a fully furnished roster ready to compete for a playoff berth.
Nothing about this feels special yet.
The Bears are off to a 1-2 start after losing to the previously winless and hapless Colts on Sunday, and the only thing that looks playoff-caliber is their defense. The offensive line is struggling to pass protect or lead a ground game under coordinator Shane Waldron, and Williams has looked like a typical rookie quarterback.
Hype is hazardous, however, and because of the massive expectations on Williams, the notion that he needs time might be hard to accept. Of the 30 quarterbacks who had thrown at least 45 passes through Sunday, Williams ranked 27th in passer rating at 65.3.
Bears coach Matt Eberflus has been on guard about outside pressure on Williams from the jump, but expectations aren’t entirely external. Williams said at the NFL Scouting Combine that he planned to “create history” with the Bears and talked about exceeding the spectacular rookie performance Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had last season.
So far, Williams has completed 59.3% of his passes, averaged 210 yards, thrown two touchdown passes and four interceptions, as well as losing a fumble deep in his own territory Sunday.
In the last five drafts, 14 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round and started as rookies. Comparing Williams’ first three starts against theirs — setting aside No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels, who made his third start for the Commanders late Monday — his passer rating ranked 10th, his yardage was seventh and his completion percentage was ninth.
It’s neither dominant nor disastrous. It’s just normal for a rookie.
Three starts in, Stroud was averaging more than 300 yards per game, had a 98 passer rating and had yet to throw an interception, and that was on a rebuilding team coming off a 3-13-1 season.
Hall of Famer Peyton Manning is seen as the ultimate example of someone who struggled with expectations as a rookie, throwing a league-high 28 interceptions in 1998 before surging to MVP candidacy in Year 2 and two championships. Manning, though, had far less talent around him as a rookie on the Colts, who went 3-13 before his arrival and had just one Pro Bowl selection in ’98.
Meanwhile, the Bears went into this season with at least 10 Pro Bowl candidates. They’re no longer rebuilding, and there’s too much talent for them to sputter against the Colts.
“You look at our roster and look at theirs, and I’d take ours over theirs any day of the week,” tight end Cole Kmet said. “It’s not a game we should have lost.”
That’s especially problematic given that the first half of the Bears’ schedule appears to be significantly more favorable than the second. Theoretically, most of their early opponents were still beatable even as Williams tried to get in a groove, then the Bears could be ready to handle fiercer foes down the stretch.
That projection was based on him being ahead of schedule even at the beginning. Instead, he struggled in his debut, looked modestly better in Week 2, then put up 363 yards passing in his third game but committed three turnovers.
The Bears have scored just three offensive touchdowns in three games.
It’s indisputable that he has progressed, but it’s been incremental. And while him needing more time to develop isn’t a red flag on his overall trajectory, too long of a wait could sink the Bears’ season.