The Bears are the best team in the NFC.
They still need to beat the Packers on Sunday to stay atop their division, however.
After securing the second spot in the NFC by beating the Eagles, the Bears moved into first place when the Panthers upset the Rams on Sunday. The Bears and Rams are 9-3, but the Bears have the tie-breaker by virtue of having a better conference record.
Were the season to end today, the Bears would have a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
It’s becoming increasingly likely that the Bears will make the playoffs. The NFL Next Gen Stats playoff probability tracker gives them a 76% chance of getting in. Bears season-ticket holders were sent playoff invoices this weekend. According to NFL rules, teams must offer playoff tickets after 13 weeks if their team leads the division or is within three games of the division lead and has a record of .500 or better.
No matter where the Bears sit in the NFC, the same truism that George McCaskey says at the start of each season still applies — the only way to guarantee a playoff berth is to win their division. So is his other maxim — beat the Packers.
If the 8-3-1 Packers beat the Bears, they’d leapfrog them for the top spot in the NFC North. If the Bears win, their playoff odds would jump to around 90% while hanging on to the No. 1 overall spot for another week. A loss would send their playoff odds down around six percentage points.
The teams face each other again two weeks later — with a Bears game against the Browns and a Packers game in Denver in between. The only other divisional game on the Bears’ schedule is a Week 18 home game against the Lions, who might have a playoff spot on the line.
The Packers’ odds to make the postseason are actually better than the Bears’ at 88%. They’re two of the hottest teams in the NFC. No conference team has won more games in a row than the Bears’ five. The 49ers, Packers and Cowboys are next with three-game winning streaks.
The Packers won in Detroit on Thanksgiving, capping a season sweep of the -Lions. Adversity hit, however, when defensive tackle DeVonte Wyatt was carted off in the fourth quarter with a broken ankle.
“I’m sick for him; I’m sick for us,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “That’s a critical loss for our football team, for our defense.”
The Lions had a scare of their own, but wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown wound up merely spraining his ankle. He’s likely to miss a week or two, which could be long enough to compromise the Lions’ playoff chances. The 7-5 Lions host the 6-5-1 Cowboys on Thursday night, which functions as a de facto elimination game for both teams. Pulling center Frank Ragnow out of retirement was supposed to ease some of the -Lions’ offensive-line concerns, but he failed his physical and won’t play this year. Detroit has a 42% chance of making the postseason, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
“Our margin for error is very small right now,” coach Dan Campbell told Lions reporters Sunday afternoon. “Of course, we have to find a way to win. . . . Time’s running out. It’s all about finding a way to win the game.”
At the start of the season, the NFC North was considered the toughest division in the NFL. It since has gained a straggler: the Vikings, who on Sunday used undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, their third starting quarterback this season. Better quarterback play — be it from Brosmer, who threw four interceptions against the Seahawks, or 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy (concussion) — could add to the NFC North chaos. The Vikings host the Lions and Packers the last two weeks of the season.
The Bears control their own destiny. With five games to play, the top seed in the NFC is theirs to cling to.