Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s right-wing party with just five MPs, would be the largest political power if an election were held tomorrow.
A new poll by YouGov, released almost a year after Labour’s landslide election victory, shows that the UK would likely have a hung parliament.
Labour would not only lose 233 of the 411 seats it won in July, but Reform would scoop up 266 new MPs.
Reform would be the largest political party in the East Midlands, East of England, North East, South East, Wales, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.
The Conservatives, once in power for 14 years, would lose a further 75 seats, leaving Kemi Badenoch’s party with just 45 MPs.
This would place them as the fourth-largest party, behind the Liberal Democrats with 81 seats, up from the current 72.
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However, no single party would have an overall majority; a political party must win at least 326 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons.
Labour would not even be able to secure power if it formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru.
Those parties would be projected to have:
- SNP: 34 seats
- Greens: seven seats
- Plaid: seven seats
The SNP would, if the vote occurred tomorrow, become the largest political party in Scotland, according to YouGov.
The poll, which surveyed 11,000 people, found that many top Labour government officials would lose their seats.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson would all go.
As would Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Defence Secretary John Healey.
But YouGov stresses that many of these wins aren’t big – most would be bagged with razor-thin margins or relatively small vote shares.
Reform would also not win the popular vote. Labour saw a 35% vote share translate to 65% of seats, far more than Reform’s 26% vote earning them 42% of seats.
Labour’s popularity has been plunging for months, bruised by decisions around the winter fuel payment and disability payments and, Britons feel, not doing enough to rebuild the NHS.
YouGov said: ‘Taken altogether, this represents a volatile, uncertain, chaotic electoral landscape.
‘It is one where the electorate fragments further, the finishing post becomes even closer to the starting line, and British politics becomes even more divided.’
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