For Bo Nix to graduate from small screens to more big swings, Sean Payton cannot run it back with last year’s offense.
He has to run the ball more. His biggest challenge this season — beyond which pair of Jordans to wear on game day — will be committing to the ground game.
Will he trust his running backs when it matters most?
Payton said a few weeks ago that a clear picture of the rushing attack would not develop until a month into the season. Apparently, he was shaking the Polaroid like Outkast, because he provided a prediction Thursday.
“It’s going to be different,” Payton declared before blaming last year’s struggles almost entirely on the Broncos running backs’ inability to be the “spaghetti sauce” in the run game.
“… We’ve immediately upgraded that position. So you’re going to see a difference and hopefully a markedly different running game.”
Is it R.J. Harvey or bust? Nope, but it is close.
Payton drafted Harvey in the second round and signed J.K. Dobbins in June. Dobbins, it was assumed, would start before ceding the job to the kid a few months into the season. This no longer feels like the case. Payton is feeding Harvey in a way that suggests he will be featured against the Titans in the opener.
It gives off Nix vibes. Payton keeps giving him bigger spoonfuls, and he hasn’t spit up yet.
Yes, there have been missteps. Harvey’s best run against the 49ers was on the wrong read. His default is to bump outside when zone blocking requires patience to put a foot in the ground and get north and south.
Payton wants to win big in 2025. There is no reason he can’t. But it requires trust beyond Nix.
He needs an offense with balance. And the adjustment is nuanced.
Despite the perception, Payton has not been Don “Air” Coryell in Denver. He called passed plays 56.4% of the time last season, ranking 18th overall in the NFL, according to Team Rankings. He throws the ball a lot. But not as much as you think.
According to the data analysts at Nfelo, Payton’s pass rate over expected last season — meaning what an average team would do in a similar context (down and distance, score, time remaining) — was plus-0.5 percent. Or almost neutral.
What this says when reading between the yard lines is that Payton will run if he likes his running back. He demonstrated this in Drew Brees’ final seasons in New Orleans. That wasn’t the case last season. For good reason.
Javonte Williams wasn’t good enough. His 513 yards were the fewest ever for a leading rusher under Payton.
It led the coach down a slippery slope. Throwing too much on first down. Predictable play-calling. Too many three-and-outs. Nix avoided sacks, but he ranked in the top 10 in passing attempts and dropbacks. That number needs to sink for his production to spike.
Nix needs help. Know who is a quarterback’s best friend? A running back who takes handoffs in the clutch as easily as he catches swing passes. Nix will rack up short completions. We have all seen it.
But for Nix to graduate to the next level, play-action must become a thing. Pointing out Nix’s flaws seems like criticizing Cindy Crawford’s mole. He threw for 29 touchdowns and ran for four more as a rookie. But there is room for improvement on throws in the 10-to-20-yard range.
These passes become easier to complete when the linebacker and safety are worried that the running back will get the ball. That hesitation creates space for a receiving corps that is not loaded with burners beyond Marvin Mims Jr.
Did we mention that the top eight teams with the highest rush percentage last season reached the playoffs?
Harvey and Dobbins — and maybe in small doses, Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie — must make Payton believe in them. Particularly Harvey. His burst leaves me calling my shot: He will become the Broncos’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 2019, and post the first 100-yard rushing game since Payton came to Denver.
He is ready for the No. 1 role with Dobbins cast as the third-down bodyguard in pass protection. Denver did not revamp its running game only to pass more. This offensive line can win at the point of attack. Let the grunts show it, especially in the red zone.
Williams had 29 attempts inside the 20 last season. The Rams’ Kyren Williams led the NFL with 77. Williams had 13 carries inside the 10. The Packers’ Josh Jacobs had 43.
This has to change with Harvey — and a little help from Dobbins.
“We brought in leadership with J.K., and we drafted Harvey early. It’s not always going to be perfect, but that’s the magic of the good back. There’s been a lot of great runs where maybe the looks weren’t as clean, and it was the ability. When we watch tapes, sometimes we say the play or we say the player. So as coaches, we’re trying to give them as many (clean) plays, and yet there are times where it’s the player,” Payton said. “I think that we’re going to be further along there.”
Time for Payton to be about what he says. And what he is saying by omission is that he will run the ball more. So look down at your Nikes, coach, and just do it.
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