Rockford, Peoria and Carbondale are bellwether cities in Illinois that give early signs of the broader economy’s health, according to a recent survey.
“Just as swing states help predict political outcomes, certain U.S. towns act as early warning systems for the economy,” according to MarketBeat, a financial media company. “These ‘signal cities’ are so attuned to local shifts in hiring, consumer behavior or supply chains that their tremors often ripple across the entire state.”
The survey was released last month during a time of economic uncertainty and anxiety in light of tariffs, layoffs, government funding cuts and stricter immigration policies under a new administration.
In June, consumer sentiment was down 20%, compared with December 2024, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. In May, the index fell to the second-lowest level in the nearly 75-year history of the survey.
MarketBeat surveyed 3,021 business leaders across the U.S., asking which cities reflect economic shifts first. In Illinois, Rockford ranked first because its mix of tool-and-die shops, logistics firms and health care providers makes it a bellwether for working-class Illinois, said MarketBeat. The city is nearly two hours northwest of Chicago.
“When job postings dry up or foot traffic in service businesses slows, Rockford usually reflects growing economic caution,” MarketBeat said in a news release.
Peoria, nearly three hours southwest of Chicago, ranked second. The city has longstanding ties to Caterpillar, which moved its headquarters from Deerfield to Texas in 2022. But the tractor maker still has facilities in Illinois, including close to Peoria. The city sheds light on the larger industrial economy when factory hours decline or demand for heavy equipment drops.
“Because many downstate communities depend on similar sectors, shifts in Peoria are often the opening act of wider economic slowdowns across central Illinois,” said MarketBeat.
Carbondale, five hours south of Chicago, is home to Southern Illinois University, which has seen rising enrollment in recent years.
“The town remains sensitive to shifts in education funding and student-driven spending trends that often echo across other rural college towns in the Midwest,” according to MarketBeat.
William Lo, executive director of the Carbondale Chamber of Commerce, said, “As a town with deep roots with SIU, we have seen ups and downs with enrollment, which are affected by state budgets, enrollment and ultimately, the national economy.”
Anecdotally, some Carbondale businesses have expressed that this summer is slower than usual, said Lo. “Business ebbs and flows whenever SIU is in session. Some have expressed the cost of goods increasing with market instability as well.”
Besides SIU, other major employers in the area include Southern Illinois Healthcare with more than 4,000 employees and Crucial MRO, an aircraft maintenance company.
Across the U.S., Rust Belt towns such as Rockford, Utica, New York, and Mansfield, Ohio, show disruptions in industrial demand or blue-collar employment before it shows up in broader state data, said MarketBeat.
Other bellwether cities highlighted in the survey included Fredericksburg, Virginia, and Jeffersonville, Indiana — commuter-dependent cities with strong links to larger metros.
Signal cities also included college towns and government seats such as Eau Claire, Wisconsin; Columbia, Tennessee; and Jefferson City, Missouri. They “offer a blend of state employment, education, and health care sectors that react quickly to budget changes and public sentiment,” according to MarketBeat.
Contributing: AP