No further Nato expansion. Occupied Ukrainian territory recognised as Russian, including by the US. No prosecution for Russia for war crimes.
These are some of the clauses – part of a ‘surrender document’, brokered by Donald Trump – that Ukraine is facing after almost four years of war.
Buried in the middle of the 28-point ‘peace blueprint’ being hammered out between the US and Russia, clause 14 stands out like a flashing sign.
It offers up $100 billion in frozen Russian assets – repackaged as a fund for reconstruction, with the US pocketing half the profits.
Meanwhile, Russia would be granted around two-thirds of the $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House, told Metro this is a ‘payoff’ for the Trump administration.
He said: ‘You can see why that would appeal to the US. Effectively, Russia is saying, “we have given up on these frozen funds already, why don’t you help yourself to it”.
‘The terms on reallocation present a carrot dangled in front of the Trump administration to encourage them towards enforcement of the agreement on Ukraine.’
Europe would also be expected to add $100 billion to boost the investment for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The proposal appears to heed to the demands of the Kremlin, whose 2022 full-scale invasion has turned into Europe’s worst conflict since World War II.
Under the draft, Russia would not only keep territories that it occupies but get more land currently controlled by Ukraine.
The West would lift sanctions on Russia, which would also be invited back into the G8.
The plan would also pile pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky, requiring that elections are held in Ukraine within 100 days – another key demand being pushed by Russia, which has repeatedly and openly called for the Ukrainian leader to be toppled.
Giles explained that this is ‘a standard list of capitulation terms’ for Ukraine – with new language designed to give the impression that Russia is actually giving something up and that Ukraine has some form of guarantees for its security.
Describing the terms as ‘meaningless or unenforceable or so vague that you will never be able to to agree on the precise impact of them,’ he said: ‘It is full of things which prejudice the future existence of Ukraine as a state.’
Under the proposal, the US would recognise Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as annexed Crimea, as ‘de-facto Russian.’
Ukraine would withdraw its troops from parts of the Donetsk region it still controls – ceding more territory to Russia and in line with one of Russia’s key demands.
The frontline would be frozen in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which are both partly occupied by Russia.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin would give up small pockets of territory in has seized in the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Ukraine would receive unspecified ‘reliable security guarantees’ while at the same time commit to cutting the size of its army.
It would also bind Ukraine to ‘enshrine in its constitution’ not to join Nato, though European jets would be stationed in neighbouring Nato-member Poland.
As well as getting to keep its conquered territory, the plan also calls for Russia to be ‘re-integrated into the global economy’.
Giles added: ‘The key issue is that if the US, by enforcing this agreement, endorses the capture of territory by force through unprovoked aggression, then we are all in danger.
‘This agreement is pretending that the war never happened.
‘Rollback of sanctions on Russia, no prosecution for war crimes… In other words, Russia is rewarded with no costs.
‘If the US endorses it, then it is an open invitation to any aggressor around the world to say, “Yes, these landgrabs achieved through military force are something that will get the blessing of the US, so let’s have a go.’”
Zelensky has said he will discuss the plan with Trump in the ‘coming days’ – so far not saying if he would agree to any of it.
He has insisted his country needed a ‘dignified peace’.
‘With a neighbour like Russia, defending one’s own dignity, freedom, and independence is an extremely difficult task,’ the president said earlier today.
Sir Keir Starmer held a call with Zelensky as well as Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz to discuss the proposal.
The prime minister told reporters: ‘My position has always been focused on a just and lasting peace. That is why we have done so much work on the Coalition of the Willing.
‘But that is premised on the principle underpinning that, which is central to me, which is that the future of Ukraine must be determined by Ukraine and we must never lose sight of that principle underpinning the just and lasting peace that we all want to see.’
Full text of a draft version of the 28-point peace plan
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty to be reconfirmed.
2. There will be a total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered resolved.
3. There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue between Russia and NATO, moderated by the United States, will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunities for connectivity and future economic opportunity.
5. Ukraine will receive robust security guarantees.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be capped at 600,000.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to pass in its bylaws not to accept Ukraine at any point in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station any troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. The U.S. guarantee: a. The U.S. to receive compensation for the guarantee; b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee; c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn; d. If Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg then, the security guarantee will be considered null and void.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to the European market while this issue is being evaluated.
12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to: a. Creation of Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth industries including technology, data centers, and AI efforts. b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, which includes its pipelines and storage facilities. c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas. d. Infrastructure development. e. Mineral and natural resource extraction. f. A special financing package will be developed by The World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia to be re-integrated into the global economy: a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis. b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Co-operation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal projects in the Arctic as well as other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. c. Russia to be invited back into the G8.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a US-led effort to reconstruct and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will match this $100 billion contribution to increase the investment available to rebuild Ukraine. The European funds that are frozen will be released. The balance of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russia investment vehicle that will pursue joint United States Russia projects in areas to be defined. This fund will aim to strengthen the relationship and increase joint interests to build a strong motivation not to return to conflict.
15. A joint US-Russian Security taskforce will be established to promote and enforce compliance with all of the provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation control treaties, including the START I Treaty.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state under the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons).
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.
20. Both countries commit to education programs in schools and throughout their society that promotes the understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminates racism and bias: a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules of religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities. b. Both countries agree to repeal all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. c. All Nazi ideology or activity should be renounced and forbidden.
21. Territories: a. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk to be recognized De-Facto as Russian, including by the United States. b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to be frozen at the contact line, which would mean a De-Facto recognition at the contact line. c. Russia to give up other agreed upon territories they control outside of the five regions d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk region that they currently control, and this withdrawal area will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this obligation.
23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine’s use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues: a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of ‘all for all’. b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. c. There will be a family reunification program d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict.
25. Ukraine to hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for wartime actions during the war and agree not to pursue claims or further settle grievances.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, Chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.
28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin.