Instant reaction to developments on the field …
1. Quantifying the chaos
The 12th Saturday of the regular season brought the expected level of heart-stoppers and gobsmackers.
Third-ranked Texas A&M charged back from a 27-point halftime deficit to beat South Carolina and remain undefeated.
No. 16 Georgia Tech rallied from 11 down early in the fourth quarter to edge Boston College and avoid its second loss.
No. 18 Michigan kicked a walk-off field goal to beat back Northwestern.
All in all, six ranked teams lost and five won by less than a touchdown.
It was a stellar day for Notre Dame, which effectively clinched another College Football Playoff berth.
And for the SEC, where Oklahoma’s victory at Alabama propelled the Sooners into an advantageous position for a College Football Playoff berth.
And for the Big Ten, where two playoff hopefuls dodged big trouble.
The ACC also emerged in better position after Duke lost, thereby erasing the nightmare scenario: That the four-loss Blue Devils would win out and claim the conference title but finish ranked below two teams from the Group of Five, leaving the ACC without a CFP bid.
It wasn’t an ideal Saturday for the Big 12, however. And that’s where our recap begins.
2. The path narrows
Typically a source of mayhem, the Big 12 produced only one unexpected result: Arizona toppled No. 25 Cincinnati, which had two weeks to prepare and an open road into the conference championship game.
But the Wildcats churned for 475 yards, dominated the second half and left the Queen City with a 30-24 victory that lent clarity to the race.
Texas Tech and BYU are alone atop the standings — each has one conference loss — and will meet in Arlington if they win out.
(That shouldn’t be difficult for the Red Raiders, who play struggling West Virginia in their finale. The journey is more treacherous for the Cougars, who visit Cincinnati next weekend.)
But results across the Power Four conspired to undermine the Big 12’s quest for an at-large berth to the playoff.
Notre Dame’s convincing victory at Pittsburgh moved the Irish within two wins, over lowly Syracuse and Stanford, of securing one of the seven at-large spots. (The Irish were No. 9 this week and won’t fall below the CFP threshold if they keep winning.)
Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s win at Alabama strengthened the Sooners’ resume and gave the SEC yet another two-loss team that could gobble a bid.
With Notre Dame in the field and six SEC teams sitting pretty (two or fewer losses), the likelihood of a two-loss Big 12 team making the at-large field is dwindling.
The optimal finish for the conference would be Texas Tech (10-1) losing a taut, well-played conference championship. The Red Raiders would have a more compelling case than any other two-loss Big 12 team.
Even Utah, which walloped Baylor, and BYU, which hammered TCU.
The Holy War rivals have lopsided losses to Texas Tech on their resumes that could be problematic if the selection committee matches them against two-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten.
3. Narrow escapes
The Big Ten had reason to celebrate as all five of its playoff contenders were victorious.
Two of them are locks: Ohio State and Indiana.
One is on course for a bid and probably has some cushion: Oregon.
Two are in must-win mode: USC and Michigan.
The Trojans rallied from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat Iowa 26-21, while the Wolverines edged Northwestern 24-22 on a field goal with no time remaining.
Both teams are 8-2 and cannot afford another loss if they hope to sneak into the CFP via the at-large field.
Each has a daunting challenge remaining.
The Trojans visit Oregon, then host UCLA.
The Wolverines visit Maryland, then host Ohio State.
If both lose, the Big Ten likely will have just three playoff participants.
If both win out, the situation gets interesting. The Big Ten’s two-loss teams would find themselves in a resume showdown with a slew of 10-2 teams from the SEC.
There very well could be five or six two-loss teams competing for three or four at-large spots.
4. Confusion down below
One tier below the power conferences, the situation is muddled.
The CFP format reserves one automatic berth for the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five conferences. But South Florida, the only G-5 team to crack the CFP rankings this week, lost to Navy.
With three weeks until the 12-team field is announced, there are no undefeated teams in the Group of Five and only two with one loss: North Texas and James Madison.
Could either sneak into the CFP?
JMU has a slight edge in the metrics (e.g., strength-of-record). But a handful of two-loss teams seemingly remain in contention, including Tulane, which beat Duke and Northwestern, along with Navy and San Diego State.
And we should remind fans of a tantalizing possibility:
If Navy (8-2) wins the American championship, the Midshipman could be selected as the Group of Five representative on Dec. 7 — one week before they play Army in the season finale.
5. Pac-12 bowl math
The Pac-12 legacy teams remain tied to the five bowl games (Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun and LA) that partnered with the conference when it was intact.
Seven have clinched bowl bids: Arizona, ASU, Cal, Oregon, USC, Utah and Washington.
Four are ineligible: Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA, which was eliminated on Saturday.
One is alive: Washington State.
The Cougars thumped Louisiana Tech 28-3 on Saturday and must win one of their final two games to qualify for the postseason.
They visit James Madison next week — ESPN’s “College GameDay” reportedly will broadcast from JMU’s campus — and finish the season at home against Oregon State.
Those tasks are not equivalent.
The Cougars (5-5) will be substantial underdogs at JMU and heavy favorites over Oregon State.
If they had to sweep, the odds would be long. But with so much at stake, they should handle the Beavers, who are winless on the road this season after a decisive loss at Tulsa.
Given the circumstances in Pullman, with the new coaching staff and overhauled roster and Independent schedule, a postseason berth — even with a 6-6 record — would make the season a resounding success.
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