DETROIT — Consecutive wins have unfurled the Blackhawks‘ sails again entering the final city of their grueling road trip.
Fifteen games into the season, they continue to exceed expectations. They look like a very legitimate, very competitive, very real NHL team.
Oddsmakers still consider them the third-most likely team to finish with the league’s worst record, but their 7-5-3 record so far cannot be disputed. At least they’re no longer considered the most likely team, as they were a month ago.
Here are seven important stats that lend insights into the Hawks’ performance:
Expected-goals ratio: 46.8%
Considering the Hawks’ 58.3% actual goals ratio during five-on-five play — having outscored opponents 35-25 — ranks third in the NHL, this subpar five-on-five expected-goals ratio suggests they won’t keep this up.
Nonetheless, 46.8% is way better than past years. It puts them 24th in the league, up from 32nd last season. Breaking the ratio into two parts, they rank 17th offensively and 24th defensively.
Shooting percentage: 12.5%
This high shooting percentage, which ranks fifth in the league, also suggests unsustainability. So does the fact the Hawks have hit the fifth-fewest posts and crossbars.
On the other hand, many of the Hawks’ best offensive players seem like genuinely above-average finishers, either because of shooting accuracy (Connor Bedard and Andre Burakovsky) or because they get to dirty areas (Ryan Donato and Tyler Bertuzzi). All four of those guys are at or above 16%.
The Hawks quietly ranked 10th in shooting percentage as a team last season, too.
Knight’s GSAA: plus-10.3
Spencer Knight, the Hawks’ new franchise goalie, has enjoyed a tremendous start to his first season as a full-time starter. His plus-10.3 goals saved above average — which takes into account quantity and quality of shots faced — leads the league, per Natural Stat Trick.
His .926 save percentage trails only Washington’s Logan Thompson. His .886 high-danger save percentage, which has always been a strength, ranks fifth.
Bedard’s point pace: 120
Entering the season, 82 points — a point-per-game rate — seemed like a reasonable expectation for Bedard in his third NHL season, coming off 67 last season. 100 points seemed like a best-case scenario.
Bedard has put himself on pace to smash those projections, with his 22 points in 15 games translating to 120 over 82. He trails only Macklin Celebrini in the NHL scoring race. Although the usual caveat — “keeping this up will be difficult” — applies, Bedard conclusively looks like the kind of superstar a contending team can be built around.
Bedard-Burakovsky minutes together: 174
Coach Jeff Blashill has avoided ex-coach Luke Richardson’s mistake of switching up Bedard’s linemates too frequently. Bedard has spent 69.6% of his five-on-five ice time with Burakovsky. Last season, nobody accompanied him for more than 32% of his ice time.
That consistency has allowed them to build chemistry, and that chemistry is reviving Burakovsky’s career. The veteran on his fourth team has goals in four of his last five games and 12 points in 14 games.
Minutes spent trailing: 165
The Hawks have started strong, then faded, then finished strong in many games. As a result, they’ve trailed for only 165 minutes, the second-smallest amount in the league (behind only the Hurricanes).
They also boast the NHL’s second-best third-period goal differential of plus-11 (behind only the Avalanche) — a sharp contrast to their minus-seven differential in second periods.
Points by rookies: 17
By far the most important — and most encouraging — aspect of the Hawks’ success is that it’s being powered by their youth, much more of which is on the way. This season matters, but the long-term outlook still matters most.
Only Canadiens rookies have earned more points, and plenty of other young Hawks are also contributing.