Heliot Ramos is playing the best baseball of his major-league career.
In 32 games this season, Ramos has six home runs and a .885 OPS. He is tied for fourth among National League outfielders in WAR calculated by FanGraphs (1.6) despite not making his season debut until early May. The former first-round pick never found his rhythm in his first two seasons, but he’s realizing his potential in real time.
But how much of this is sustainable?
“There’s a skill set there that has just come out, maybe a little bit later (than expected),” said Giants manager Bob Melvin. “I think it’s probably the first opportunity he’s gotten like this at the big-league level, and he’s taking advantage of it. It’s really great to see. The smile on his face every day, he can’t wait to come out here every day. I don’t know where we’d be without him.”
Here’s a look under the hood at Ramos’ underlying numbers and what they might say about his season so far:
The bat is likely to cool down
BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is a rough measure of a batter’s luck. There’s a lot of nuance with this stat, but for the purposes of examining Ramos, here’s what’s important: When a BABIP is significantly higher (or lower) than a player’s career average, it’s usually a sign of some degree of luck.
The league average BABIP is generally .300 (this year, it’s .293). Ramos’ BABIP in his first two seasons was .224 (Ramos only had 82 plate appearances). This season, Ramos’ BABIP is .411 — an unsustainable mark.
Ramos, then, likely won’t sustain his current production. What does his output look like when he cools down? Time will tell.
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Ramos is hitting the ball hard, though
Should Ramos’ performance be chalked up solely to luck? No. He’s damaging the baseball, too.
Ramos is currently posting an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that mark would tie for eighth-best in the league. With a swing like this, for example, no luck is needed:
It’s not just average exit velocity, either. Ramos’ hard-hit percentage of 57% would rank sixth in baseball if he qualified, sandwiched between Gunnar Henderson (57.4%) and Marcell Ozuna (56.4%). Additionally, his barrel rate of 16.5% is a tick above Corey Seager (16.3%), who ranks in the 95th percentile.
“I always knew that I could do it,” Ramos said. “I was always positive about myself. I always trust myself. The only thing was making the right decisions, just trying to hit the right pitch. I know if I can touch it, the ball will go.”
Added Melvin: “Everything seems to be hit hard. He’s hitting homers. He’s driving in big runs. It’s been going on for a while here to feel pretty good about what he’s doing.”
He swings the bat like few can
Baseball Savant, MLB’s advanced analytics site, recently unveiled new bat-tracking data. One of the new stats is average bat speed. The stat, as the name suggests, measures how fast a hitter swings their bat on average.
The major-league average is 71.4 mph. Ramos has an average bat speed of 75.9 mph. If Ramos qualified, he would rank ninth in baseball, a tick faster than Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez and the Yankees’ Juan Soto (75.8 mph).
Average bat speed, like average exit velocity, is not the end all, be all. That said, the stat carries some importance. The data shows that higher bat speeds lead to better results — when a batter makes contact, of course.
The improved discipline is equally encouraging
Ramos’ strikeout rate (29.6%) is among the worst in baseball, but he’s taken a very sizable jump in his discipline.
The outfielder had a chase rate of 35.9% (22 plate appearances) in 2022, then 30.3% in 2023 (60 plate appearances). This season, Ramos is down to 25.7%.
It shouldn’t be surprising, then, that Ramos’ walk rate has jumped from 7.3% in his first two seasons to 11.1% this year. If Ramos had enough plate appearances to qualify, that mark ]would be in the top-20 in the National League.
“I’m not trying to do too much,” Ramos said. “I’m not trying to be too tense at the plate, just letting everything happen. The more relaxed I am, the easier it is for me to see pitches, the easier it is for me to pull the trigger on pitches that I want.”
Don’t forget the glove
Ramos’ bat is garnering most of the attention, but his defense shouldn’t be an afterthought. Over 32 games, Ramos has accumulated three outs above average.
Additionally, Ramos has accumulated seven defensive runs saved as an outfielder, tied with the Phillies’ Brandon Marsh for fifth-most among outfielders in baseball. While Marsh has played 410 innings, Ramos has only played 271 2/3 innings.