LAS VEGAS — As East Texas handicapper Paul Stone drove up State Route 79 to I-20 and headed east to Bossier City, Louisiana, last Friday morning, he listened to Chris Fallica on the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN).
A popular betting commentator known as ‘The Bear,’ Fallica is a Miami graduate, too. He made such a strong case for the Hurricanes to make the national football playoff, Stone bolted for the Draft-
Kings outlet in Bossier City.
He grabbed +400 odds (risk $100, say, to win $400) on Miami making the field. That’s just what happened Sunday morning, Vegas time, when a selection committee included the Canes in the brackets.
“I’m usually an army of one, but Fallica was pretty convincing,” Stone says. “Not original work, but it cashes just the same. I take no credit for it. I would not have made that bet had I not listened to Chris.”
Friday afternoon, from nearby Shreveport, Stone caught an Allegiant Air flight to Vegas to be properly poised Sunday morning when the city’s sportsbooks unveiled their playoff spreads and totals.
These are strictly business trips, with a return flight to Shreveport on Monday morning. He makes a healthy living wagering on college hoops and football games, exploiting odds, according to his power figures.
Stone rarely dabbles in futures, but two months ago he bought title tickets on Indiana, at +800, and 20-1 on Texas Tech.
I relayed my two preseason Big Ten ducats, +140 and +150 on a team from that league claiming the crown, and 45-1 on the Hurricanes winning it all. I prefer playing with futures.
“It really is a good way to use a smaller bankroll,” Stone says, “to enjoy the whole season.”
Scary Canes
Stone spends most of his time here in his hotel room, massaging his numbers, researching information. Sunday morning, he bet college hoops. He pounced when the books released their football-playoff numbers.
He bet Miami plus 4½ points against Texas A&M in College Station, Texas, on Dec. 20. Also on that Saturday, he got Ole Miss -15 at home against Tulane.
When I chat with him Sunday evening, punters had shaved the Miami spread to 4 and 3½. He respects that Mike Elko went 11-1 in his second season coaching the Aggies.
“But their seven conference victories were against teams that went a combined 12-44 in SEC play,” Stone says. “By six or fewer points, A&M beat Auburn, Arkansas and South Carolina, teams that were a combined 2-22 in league.
“In a 27-17 loss to Texas, I think A&M showed it’s vulnerable. The Aggies do have some flaws. And I think Miami’s game is something nobody wants to face in this playoff tournament.”
The Canes lost to SMU 26-20, then won their final four games by a combined 151-41.
“Miami is a scary team,” Stone says. “They might win the game, as long as quarterback Carson Beck stays away from the turnovers that have plagued him from time to time.
“The Canes will give the Aggies all they want there in College Station.”
Chambliss in charge
On Sept. 20, Ole Miss belted Tulane 45-10, dominating total yards 548-282. The Rebels led 23-3 at halftime.
“Even in non-conference games against a Sun Belt team, Tulane gave up 31 points to South Alabama,” Stone says. “In their league, they yielded 48 to Texas-San Antonio and 32 to Memphis.
“And they’re going up against one of the most potent offenses in the SEC.”
That Tulane game represented Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’s second career start, and he went 17-for-27 for 307 yards, a ridiculous 11.4 yards per throw. Pro scouts salivate at such double-digit production.
A Michigan native who led Ferris State to a Division II national title last year, Chambliss eclipsed 300 yards in five more games, including his last three, triumphs over the Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State.
The 6-foot senior’s interception percentage (0.9%) is top-five in the country, he has six rushing touchdowns and he even caught an eight-yard pass.
“With more reps at this level, he’s a better quarterback now,” Stone says. “Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is going to LSU with Lane Kiffin, but Weis will call plays for this game. I don’t see a great loss of continuity.
“Tulane will have difficulty defending that Ole Miss offense.”
By Thursday, the Rebels had ballooned to 17½-point favorites. Stone also contemplated under the 40½ total in Alabama-Oklahoma.
Exacta heaven
Monday morning, I dropped by the South Point to meet with sportsbook director Chris Andrews. His shop is where I bought those two choice Big Ten tickets in the summer.
It’s also where, exactly one year ago, I grabbed exactas Ohio State over Notre Dame (25-1) and Irish over Buckeyes (30-1). Of course, the Buckeyes won 34-23.
Going into the final I had a guaranteed futures cash, which was the goal.
I prize points-per-play margins, at the superb (and free) TeamRankings database. Those numbers eliminate human bias. I compared past-three figures a year ago, played out the brackets and, voilà, got Ohio State vs. Notre Dame.
The identical procedure this week produced Texas Tech vs. Miami; I bought Red Raiders over Hurricanes and Canes over Raiders, both at 75-1.
I finished my holiday shopping with Indiana over Miami (30-1) and Canes over Hoosiers (80-1), adding a 25-1 title ticket on Ole Miss, should the Rebels roll.