President-elect Donald Trump is famous for relishing an opportunity to make a deal. With the stunning collapse of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Trump now has the opportunity to make the deal of a lifetime.
Indeed, Assad’s collapse – which also exposed the weakness of his backers in Russia and Iran – presents the chance for Trump to reshape the Middle East in a way that protects America’s interests, strengthens our allies, and weakens our enemies.
Put another way, working with allies in the region – Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – Trump can build a stable, peaceful Middle East that demands fewer American resources, forges ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and improves America’s geopolitical position at the expense of our enemies’.
At the same time, while Trump has said that he does not think getting involved in Syria’s issues is within America’s interest, the reality is that a stable Syria is squarely within our interests.
U.S. involvement can prevent an Islamist takeover in Syria akin to what happened in Afghanistan, and Assad’s ouster gives Trump a critical opportunity to further isolate Iran, America’s top adversary in the Middle East.
As Tehran – undoubtedly the biggest loser from the Assad regime’s collapse – rapidly approaches the ability to build nuclear weapons, Trump should ratchet up the pressure on a regime that is increasingly vulnerable following the loss of its most important regional ally.
Ideally, this would take the form of enhanced sanctions and a clear warning that American or joint American-Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program – and the regime itself – are imminent unless the regime changes its behavior.
In addition to bringing maximum pressure to bear on Iran, the historic opportunity created by Assad’s collapse presents a number of steps the U.S. can take to significantly shape the wider region to our advantage.
First, the incoming Trump administration needs a policy to deal with the Syrian transitional government.
The overarching question regarding Syria’s new government is whether Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the group primarily responsible for Assad’s defeat – has genuinely renounced its terrorist roots and will establish a government that respects women and minorities.
If HTS is sincere in its commitment to tolerance and forswears terrorism, Trump should offer to rollback sanctions on Syria. This should be done in stages, so that the U.S. can verify progress before further easing.
To do this effectively, Trump will have to work with Turkey, a key supporter of the Syrian opposition. While Turkish President Recep Erdogan has often antagonized the U.S., as a NATO country, Turkish influence is preferable to Russian or Iranian.
Second, Trump has an opportunity to expand the Abraham Accords – the historic peace deal brokered in 2020 between Israel, the U.A.E, and Bahrain – to include a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
That these accords have held throughout Israel’s war in Gaza demonstrates the very real possibility of lasting peace between Israel and moderate Arab nations.
By using the opportunity created by Assad’s fall to deepen relationships between Jerusalem and Riyadh, Trump could broker the most important deal in the modern history of the Middle East.
In that same vein, a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would bring the Middle East’s two most powerful countries together, another blow to Iran.
Regarding Israel, the Trump administration should fully empower Jerusalem to take unilateral action if it sees growing threats from Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, or elsewhere. This includes letting Hezbollah know that Washington won’t restrain Israel should the Lebanese terrorist group violate the ceasefire reached earlier this month.
To be sure, the Israeli military has already done the world a great favor in the days before and since the collapse of the Assad regime.
In decimating Hezbollah and effectively deterring Iran, Israel prevented Assad’s allies from intervening to save his regime, directly contributing to the end of Assad’s rule.
Similarly, by destroying roughly 80% of Assad’s conventional and chemical weapons after the regime fell, Israel prevented these from falling into the hands of terrorists.
Finally, outside of Syria, Assad’s fall carries the most severe implications for Iran.
Tehran backed the Syrian dictator as a critical key in the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” that stretched from Lebanon through Syria and into Yemen.
Conversely, with Iran reeling from its conflict with Israel and now the loss of its two most important allies – Hezbollah and Assad – Trump would be wise to double down on his “maximum pressure” strategy.
Under President Biden, Iran flouted sanctions, all while developing the ability to develop a nuclear bomb in mere days or weeks. Trump must reverse course and tighten the noose on Iran’s economy and nuclear program.
He can do this with a full embargo on Iranian oil, including threats of sanctions against countries which continue buying from Iran.
On the nuclear issue, Trump should recommit to doing whatever is necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. If suffocating Iran’s economy via sanctions is not enough, the military option must be on the table.
Following Israel’s destruction of Syrian air defenses, which blew open the path to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel is reportedly considering striking. Doing so would be a gift to the U.S., and indeed, the world. Trump should fully support our ally if Israel does in fact go forward.
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To be clear, this is not calling for preemptive strikes on Iran at this point. Rather, strikes cannot be ruled out – as President’s Biden and Obama essentially did – as well as stating the absolute need to prevent the marriage of radical Islam with nuclear weapons.
Ultimately, recent events in the Middle East present the United States and incoming President Trump with a historic opportunity.
Quite simply, Trump has a chance to leave a bigger impact on the Middle East than any of his predecessors, specifically former Presidents Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, or Biden ever had. Should Trump seize this chance, his legacy will stand above theirs.
Handled correctly, the United States and our allies will be stronger, while our enemies – Iran, Russia, and radical terrorists everywhere – will be permanently weakened, all without risking another “forever war” in the Middle East.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is a Senior Strategist with Schoen Cooperman Research.