Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — a regular, but not quite weekly, examination of the Power Four.
The column will be published each Monday through the end of September as the barrage of non-conference matchups provides fresh data. Once October arrives and teams enter the heart of conference play, the column will switch to a bi-monthly schedule.
Although the College Football Playoff uses a clunkier, murkier selection process than the NCAA Tournament, the early-season results help frame decisions made months later.
How the Big 12 performs head-to-head against the SEC, for example, will lend context to the CFP selection committee’s rankings on the first Sunday of December.
Our view of the conference hierarchy:
1. SEC
Non-conference record: 14-2Record vs. Power Four: 4-2Best win: LSU over ClemsonWorst loss: Alabama to Florida StateComment: The losses by Alabama and Texas (at Ohio State) received most of the attention — along with LSU’s win at Clemson — but season openers on the road with inexperienced quarterbacks are always high-risk affairs. While the strength of the top tier of the SEC is open for debate, the depth looks impressive after Tennessee, South Carolina and Auburn battered Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Baylor, respectively. Of note: None of the SEC’s six dates with power conference opponents were home games, although two were in Atlanta.
2. ACC
Non-conference record: 12-5Record vs. Power Four: 3-4Best wins: Florida State over AlabamaWorst loss: North Carolina to TCUComment: Had North Carolina prevailed, the ACC might have emerged from the Week 1 chaos as the biggest winner. Instead, the conference warrants a spot just behind the SEC. The heavy load of Power Four matchups — it played more than twice as many as the Big Ten — helps the case, but two A-level victories are the true rocket fuel. We gave Florida State’s win a slight edge over Miami’s three-point escape from Notre Dame, largely because the Seminoles were dominant. If Miami, Florida State and Clemson are all fixtures in the top 15 this season, a rosy narrative will follow (regardless of UNC’s fate).
3. Big Ten
Non-conference record: 16-2Record vs. Power Four: 2-1Best win: Ohio State over TexasWorst loss: Northwestern to TulaneComment: The issue here is one of sample size: The Big Ten played far fewer games against Power Four opponents than did the other three. Yes, Ohio State’s victory was as good as it gets. But UCLA’s home loss to Utah was downright ugly, and Nebraska’s close win over Cincinnati was partially ugly. So consider us only mildly impressed with the Big Ten thus far. (As we noted Monday, the conference was favored in all 16 victories.) The situation improves in Week 2 with Iowa, Michigan and Illinois on the road and Michigan State and Oregon at home against power conference opposition.
4. Big 12
Non-conference record: 14-3Record vs. Power Four: 2-3Best win: TCU over North CarolinaWorst loss: Baylor to AuburnComment: Utah pummeled UCLA, but we deemed TCU’s result as the best win because of the attention it drew as the standalone game Monday night. And the Big 12 needed an A-level performance after home losses by Colorado (to Georgia Tech) and Baylor (to Auburn). The conference is forever fighting the narrative that it’s light at the top. If the Big 12 is viewed as wobbly in the middle, too, there’s trouble. For that reason, winning matchups against sub-elite teams in the ACC, SEC and Big Ten is essential. North Carolina might prove to be much worse than mid-level. For now, we’ll give TCU a heaping pile of credit for the performance.
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