Nobody with a rooting interest in the Bears wants to hear that they’ll go 9-8 this season. A 9-8 record is unsweetened porridge. It’s flannel pajamas. It’s like finding out that the adrenaline-pumping roller-coaster ride is shut down for repairs and that you’re being directed to the carousel horses.
With so much excitement going into the opener Sunday against the Titans, 9-8 feels like a cold shower.
Alas, that’s my prediction for 2024. But before you accuse me of borrowing the “bland’’ from Dean Blandino, know that I’m open to the possibility that the Bears could surprise plenty of people — but not you, true-blue Bears fan! — and go 11-6. Know also that all sorts of unforeseen things could happen, leading to a bad outcome, something like 7-10.
That’s not me covering my bases. That’s me recognizing that several unknowns, including how well rookie quarterback Caleb Williams transitions to the NFL, make it harder than normal to be sure about how this season is going to turn out.
So let’s go through each scenario and see which one is the snuggest fit:
Best-case scenario: Bears go 11-6
This is the scenario in which Williams ignores the part where rookies are supposed to struggle and instead looks like a 10-year pro. What would that look like? Well, if you drink from the same frat-party punch bowl that some Bears fans and a few national media analysts are enjoying, it would look similar to the numbers C.J. Stroud put up as a rookie last year for the Texans: 4,108 yards, 23 touchdown passes, five interceptions, a 63.9 completion percentage and a 100.8 passer rating. Asked Wednesday to give an “under-the-radar’’ pick for league MVP this season, ESPN’s Domonique Foxworth chose Williams.
I can’t decide if this is breathtakingly reckless or boldly perceptive. Let’s leave open the possibility that C) Foxworth misquoted himself.
Williams will have plenty of talented options when he looks to pass: veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen and fellow 2024 first-round pick Rome Odunze. Tight end Cole Kmet is sure-handed.
For 11-6 to be doable, Williams needs to be protected. Nothing makes a quarterback below average more than a poor offensive line. Pro Football Focus has the Bears’ line ranked 11th out of 32 teams. Here’s what the analytics outfit says about the group:
“The Bears’ offensive line, as it got healthy, was one of the top units in the NFL toward the second half of the 2023 season. Center Ryan Bates is expected to complete the unit and bring it to the next level.
“In Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, Chicago has a promising young offensive tackle duo. And Teven Jenkins has performed extremely well since moving to guard, earning 70.0-plus PFF overall grades in 2022 and 2023.’’
This is why the Bears win two from the overrated, Jordan Love-led Packers. This is why they make the playoffs. And this is why coach Matt Eberflus gets Coach of the Year votes.
Worst-case scenario: Bears go 7-10
How does the team not improve on a 7-10 record from the year before? The monumental hype gets to Williams, who, suddenly aware he’s not at USC anymore, becomes overwhelmed by the complexities of running an NFL offense. He’s indecisive in the pocket, which leads to sacks and increases the chances he gets injured.
Not helping matters at all, the Bears’ offensive line is overvalued and turns out to be like too many Bears’ O-lines of the past. This backs up the argument that stats nerds have been putting forth for years: that PFF analysts’ rankings are based on opinions, not statistical evaluation. In other words, they’re just like the rest of us knuckleheads.
The Bears’ defense finished first in interceptions last season, but it ranked 25th in passing yards and 29th in passing touchdowns. It doesn’t take much of an imagination to envision the interceptions dropping off in 2024. The technical football term for that is, “uh-oh.’’
Injuries turn out to be a serious problem. We won’t even talk about them coming for a certain rookie quarterback.
The Love-led Packers keep laughing at the Bears.
Eberflus gets fired.
Prudent, just-right scenario: Bears go 9-8
The defense is going to be better than last year’s unit. Montez Sweat will have 15 sacks in a full season as a Bear.
How, you might be asking yourself, does that translate into a boring breakfast of a final record?
Conventional wisdom says that, because Williams is so talented, the Bears’ offense will revolve around him. Conventional wisdom is an imbecile. Look for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to cook up game plans that give balance to the passing and running game. That approach will give Williams a better chance to cut down on mistakes and to stay healthy. It’s probably not what fans envisioned when the Bears made him the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. But it’s a good way to ease him into the league.
The Bears split with the Love-led Packers, but somehow get swept by Sam Darnold’s Vikings. Good Lord.
The Bears don’t make the playoffs. Eberflus keeps his job. And fans start talking about their favorite topic: the upcoming draft.