While Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has tried his best to assure his side that last week’s elections were a nothingburger — just blue states doing blue state things — it’s clear the margin of Democratic victories is forcing a discussion over whether Trumponomics is working.
The 2024 elections were a clear rebuke of Bidenomics and Democratic policies blamed for persistently high inflation. Voters who ranked the economy top of mind generally broke to the right in hopes of improving the economy and lowering inflation.
But the 2025 off-year elections underscore the idea that voters are souring on the GOP.
Public polling in recent months has not been favorable for President Donald Trump on the economy. RealClearPolitics, which averages out polls from across the country, currently has the president 14 points under water on average when it comes to his handling of the economy.
A recent survey from the Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos found that most Americans report spending more on the basics (groceries and utilities) than a year ago. Consumer confidence surveys have likewise trended downward.
It’s no wonder, then, that President Trump has been busy proposing different ideas he thinks might appeal to Americans unhappy about the state of the economy.
“A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” he declared on Truth Social over the weekend, saying the money would come from his taxes on imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent quickly tried to wave away the idea, telling George Stephanopoulos of ABC News, “The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways, George. You know, it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda — you know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans.”
Bessent probably knows, as most do, that $2,000 payouts would be a terrible idea. Eric Boehm of Reason Magazine notes, the cost of such a payout would actually exceed tariff revenues, which means it would just add to the national debt. Then there’s the other problem: it would probably be inflationary, just like the COVID checks were.
So, the president has kicked around another idea, 50-year mortgages. Of course, there are pros and cons to such an idea. It might lower monthly payments, but it also means paying more in interest and accumulating equity at a slower rate.
While making such a product available might make sense if that’s really what people want, the whole idea misses the point. If it’s housing affordability Trump is interested in, you have to make it easier to build and cheaper to build.
The National Association of Home Builders notes that “the tariffs act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers.” Trump’s aggressive and often arbitrary enforcement of immigration laws has also had a chilling effect on the construction industry. A recent survey from the Associated General Contractors of America found that “92 percent of contractors report they are having a hard time filling open positions” and that immigration enforcement is impacting a third of construction firms.
If the president wants to make America affordable, he needs to stop his nonsensical tariffs, drop his inflationary “rebate” idea and prioritize the removal of people who are actually a threat to public safety rather than scaring off people ready to help build homes. Leaning back into deregulation and slashing red tape is far better than the meddling government actions he’s proposing and implementing.