UK general warns we’re ’10 years away’ from being prepared for long war with Russia

Air and missile defence? ‘One out of 10.’ Civil force? ‘One out of 10.’ Naval ability to keep sea lanes open? ‘Two out of 10.’ Production speed? Again, ‘two out of 10’.

This is how General Sir Richard Barrons graded parts of the British military in terms of preparedness for a future conflict amid the looming threat from Russia.

Ever since 1989 – the end of the Cold War, marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of communist regimes across Eastern Europe – the UK has not invested in ‘the things it needs for a long war,’ leaving them to ‘wither’.

The ex-commander of the Joint Forces warned that UK institutions are still operating on the complacent peacetime assumption that protracted wars do not happen anymore.

He told RUSI’s Long War Conference in Whitehall that the country needs to be ready for a long war – but that with the speed of production, ‘at best, we will be quite ready in about 10 years.’

‘But I think it will take a bit longer than that. And our analysis and our allies are telling us that maybe we have three to five years,’ Sir Richard warned.

‘Depending on what happens in places like Ukraine in the coming weeks, it might feel sharper than that.’

After decades of insufficient funding, Sir Richard said the result is visible in the ‘government, attitude of society, industry arrangements and the armed forces.’

Integrated air-and-missile defence system (IAMD) of the country – both the ability to defend and strike – are thinly spread.

He explained: ‘If you want an Iron Dome over parts of the UK that matter – like the nuclear deterrent, maybe Whitehall… entry level £75 billion of which we have £1 billion. So we know we have a challenge.’

The navy is also too small to guarantee freedom of navigation. Meanwhile, the mobilisation systems are so neglected that the state no longer knows where its former reserves actually are.

Even the NHS – the one national institution hailed as ‘world-class’ – is wholly unprepared for wartime casualties on any meaningful scale.

Sir Richard described it as the country’s ‘greatest risk and the one that gets attention at last’.

Altogether, out of 220 point – the highest possible score for preparedness for long war – he gave Britain 55.

‘So we are about a quarter of the way there,’ the general said.

Nothing he describes is beyond repair. Solving the industrial and financial gaps is expensive, but the general stressed that this is ‘the cheaper end of war.’

But he said that the political, as well as societal, will to treat the risk as real, meaning to spend faster and build faster, is not there.

‘Thinking about long war is a standing feature of this century…’ Sir Richard explained.

‘Of course, we are not ready for it, but we did not need to be for a long time.

‘Now, we need to be. What that means is that this journey back is going to take effort and time and of course money.

‘Until we fix it, we are running the risk that our allies will not bail us out or that our enemies will stop leaving us alone. That is not a great strategy.’

He also stressed that the UK is ‘much further behind’ than other Nato allies – even newer members like Sweden.

The government has said that it endorses, and that will implement, all the recommendations made in the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), which sets out a vision for UK defence over the next decade – including the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War. 

Minister for defence readiness and industry, Luke Pollard, told Metro that he welcomed the general’s criticism and that he hopes to demonstrate a ‘very clear progress indicator’ a year from now, after implementing the SDR recommendations.

The politician said: ‘Now, in the event of something going wrong tonight, do I have confidence that the men of the armed forces can set up? I do.

‘Do I want to have more capability to deter Russia tomorrow? I do. Every single day we need to increase our deterring ability.’

Sir Richard’s warning also comes as a potential deal to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has raised the stakes for Europe.

Donald Trump has claimed the Kremlin is ‘making concessions’ and that Ukraine is ‘happy’ with how the talks are progressing.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

For more stories like this, check our news page.