Several decades ago, when Republicans had rough parity with Democrats as they dueled over California’s presidential electoral votes and other offices high and low, GOP strategists counted on what they called “the fishhook.”
The elongated shank of the Republican-heavy territory consisted of the interior counties from the Oregon border to Mexico, and its hook were the conservative coastal counties of San Diego and Orange.
The GOP could count on lopsided majorities in fishhook counties to offset heavy Democratic returns in the San Francisco Bay Area. With Los Angeles County, home to a quarter of the state’s population, breaking almost even, Republicans often prevailed.
That parity vanished in the late 1990s for a variety of reasons, and since then Democrats have been dominant from the presidential level downward.
However, last week’s election moved the state’s ideological needle a little to the right, and even generated an echo of the fishhook days.
Ten counties that had voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 shifted to Donald Trump this year. The map of those results, showing fairly solid support for Trump in interior California, resembles the old fishhook minus San Diego County, which opted for Vice President Kamala Harris. With some votes still being counted, Harris is running about five percentage points behind Biden’s vote in 2020 and Trump about four points higher.
While there is a multitude of factors being cited for Harris’s loss nationally, there is consensus that one is angst about the inflation of living costs over the last four years, something that Californians have certainly experienced, particularly in housing. A recent report from the Legislature’s fiscal adviser, the Legislative Analyst’s Office, says that living costs have risen nearly 20% since January 2020, driven by a 41.5% jump in housing and utility costs.
In a separate report, the analyst’s office reported that monthly payments for a “mid-tier” home in California, including mortgage, taxes and insurance, have increased 75% in the last four years to $5,500. Payments for lower-priced homes have jumped even more, surging 80% to $3,400 a month.
California’s presidential vote, however, was only one indication of a slight drift to the right. It was also visible in voting on statewide ballot measures, most notably for Proposition 36, which toughens penalties for some crimes, and against expansion of rent control (Proposition 33) and making it easier to pass local bonds (Proposition 5).
While Democrats maintained their lopsided majorities in the Legislature, there is some evidence of gains by moderate, pro-business Democrats vis-à-vis union-supported progressives.
Brian Brennan, executive director of the 21st Century Alliance, which advocates for centrist policies, cited the election of moderate Democrats in five open Assembly districts, replacing pro-union progressives.
“Five Assembly seats out of 80 is a big deal,” Brennan said. “Shifting five seats each cycle over a few cycles adds up to the change California needs.”
Other indications of California voters’ more conservative outlook are the ouster of two district attorneys identified with the left-leaning penal reform movement in two solidly Democratic counties: George Gascón in Los Angeles and Pamela Price in Alameda.
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Finally, Democrats had hoped to flip as many as five congressional seats in California as they sought to regain a House majority.
However, as of Tuesday, they had gained one California seat in the northern reaches of Los Angeles County as Democrat George Whitesides ousted GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, while the other targeted Republican incumbents still held narrow leads as the vote-counting continued.
Republicans will probably never regain the clout they once had in California but the election indicates that its voters are not as lockstep liberal or progressive as many assume.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.