If anyone still harbors doubts that Gavin Newsom is contemplating a run for the White House in 2028, this week’s sojourn into South Carolina for some schmoozing with local politicians and photo ops with common folk should dispel them.
Although South Carolina is a strongly Republican state, in 2024 the Democratic Party, at the behest of then-President Joe Biden, designated it as the first state to have a presidential primary. It could play that role again in 2028.
Thus, Democratic politicians who see themselves as potential candidates are — to no one’s surprise — finding reasons to visit the state. Newsom’s rationale is that he wants to know how cuts in federal health care programs are affecting South Carolinians.
Ever since winning a second and final term as governor three years ago, Newsom has obviously been building a national profile, all the while insisting that he had no presidential ambitions.
However, after spending half of his 57 years climbing the political ladder one rung at a time, it seemed unlikely that he would simply retire from politics after his governorship ended and return to running his wine and hospitality business.
Last month, Newsom acknowledged the possibility of a 2028 run in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, saying “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.” This week’s visit to South Carolina proves that he’s headed down that path.
Could Newsom pull it off?
When Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump last year, it opened the door for all Democratic hopefuls. The party is undergoing a post-election upheaval after losing not only the presidency but control of both houses of Congress.
There’s a sense that the nation’s voters are not buying what the party has been selling, but there’s no consensus on how it should change to win back disaffected voter blocs, nor is there a commanding figure to lead its transformation.
Newsom has been a vocal critic of the party’s failure to connect with blue-collar voters, particularly young men, but has yet to articulate an alternative approach. He’s also been slowly edging away from his previous image as a California progressive — much to the dismay of environmentalists, gay and transgender rights advocates and other left-leaning groups.
The lack of an obvious leader in what could be a crowded field of Democratic hopefuls creates an opening for Newsom to offer himself as someone who could put together a coalition of voter blocs capable of defeating the 2028 Republican candidate — most likely, at this early stage, Vice President JD Vance.
Early polling does place Newsom among the upper tier of potential Democratic candidates, although with barely double-digit support. Nevertheless, Newsom’s path to the White House — or at least to the Democratic nomination — is also filled with potholes, beginning with the inescapable fact that he’s from California.
The state’s image these days is a far cry from the land of sunshine and opportunity that it once enjoyed. Its chronic housing shortage, its squalid encampments of homeless people in the state’s major cities and its self-designation as a sanctuary for undocumented immigrants are potent campaign fodder for Newsom’s rivals — and his Republican opponent, should he win the nomination.
To many, Newsom also comes across as slick and glib rather than sincere, someone who bends reality to portray California and himself as leaders to be emulated. If Newsom is to become acceptable to South Carolinians and other voters across the nation, he will have to persuade them that his eight years as governor of California has earned him a promotion to the top rung on the ladder.
That won’t be easy.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.