Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 5-5. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
To the picks …
In the aftermath of another Big Ten coach whining about the cross-country flights (hello, James Geoffrey Franklin), and with four teams making long trips this weekend, the Hotline views this as an ideal time to update the toll exacted by travel in the sprawling conference.
But not the toll on the teams — the toll on our picks. My picks, your picks, everyone’s picks.
How have Big Ten Teams that cross multiple time zones fared against the spread?
To be clear, our database only tracks conference games, but it covers the entire 2024 season and the first few weeks of 2025, so the sample size is robust: 35 games.
Overall, teams crossing multiple time zones for conference games are 11-24 on the scoreboard, but that tells us little about performance relative to a market-based expectation. How traveling teams perform against the spread is far more revealing.
Keep in mind that in the point-spread world, the significance of any trend is based on its degree of deviation from 50 percent. And with that, here you go:
Big Ten teams crossing multiple time zones cover the spread at the rate of 32.3 percent. (The raw number: 11-23-1.)
That’s simply astounding and entirely predictable. The travel toll, with time zone changes and funky kickoff times (for the players’ body clocks), is real. Any Big Ten coaches and administrators who thought otherwise when the conference expanded to the West Coast were in fantasy land.
And as a bonus for Hotline readers, we have included a few notable nuggets:
(Keep in mind that the point spreads used in our calculations might differ slightly from the spreads available at various sportsbooks or websites.)
— Not all West Coast teams are created equal when it comes to covering the spread on long trips.
UCLA is 4-0, and Oregon is 3-2. Meanwhile, Washington and USC are each 0-5.
Which means the West Coast teams are 7-12 against the spread when playing in the Eastern or Central time zones.
— Big Ten teams traveling from the eastern half of the country to the West Coast are 4-11-1 against the spread.
— The West Coast quartet is 2-4 against the spread when playing at 12 p.m. Eastern time (9 a.m. for their body clocks).
— Lastly, teams crossing multiple time zones are 2-3 against the spread when playing on Friday night.
Anyhow, hope that provides some context on the situation.
We will update the numbers in November and, of course, continue to monitor which head coaches are complaining about the travel — and which coaches are wisely staying silent.
To the picks …
Season record: 31-31-1
Five-star special: 3-3
All times Pacific
Rutgers (+10.5) at WashingtonKickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on FS1Comment: Yes, it’s a long flight for the Scarlet Knights. But they have a much bigger problem: The talent deficit. If Iowa scored 38 points on the Rutgers defense, the Huskies should go for 45. Pick: Washington
Stanford (+19.5) at SMUKickoff: 9 a.m. on The CWComment: What does a $50 million donation get you? Hope. And as Andy Dufresne said to Red, “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.” Pick: Stanford
Washington State (+32.5) at MississippiKickoff: 9:45 a.m. on SEC NetworkComment: Best we can tell, the Cougars have not been underdogs of this magnitude since a 42.5-point betting line when they faced USC in 2008. We like WSU, particularly given the look-ahead factor for Mississippi, which plays Georgia next week. Pick: Washington State
Indiana (+7.5) at OregonKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBSComment: Rarely has a single result impacted our view of a team as much as Penn State’s loss at UCLA changed our view of the Ducks (from completely sold to slightly sold). But they are still more than 7.5 points better than Indiana, which doesn’t have enough of anything on either side of the ball to repel the onslaught. Pick: Oregon
Wake Forest (-3) at Oregon StateKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CWComment: The Demon Deacons, who won at Virginia Tech last weekend, now make the cross-country flight for a non-conference game against a winless team and have an important ACC duel next week (SMU). Feels like a trap visible from 3,000 miles away. Pick: Oregon State
Oklahoma (+1.5) vs. Texas (in Dallas)Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABCComment: What if Oklahoma backup Michael Hawkins is the best quarterback on the field? Nah, won’t happen … right? Pick: Texas
Michigan (+2.5) at USCKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBCComment: We’d like to announce a change to the game selection process here on the Hotline. As of this moment, we will pick against the Trojans anytime they are favored. Location, time and opponent do not matter. Pick: Michigan
BYU (-2.5) at ArizonaKickoff: 5 p.m. on ESPN2Comment: Being markedly improved from last year is not the same as being good. The Wildcats are certainly the former, but we aren’t sure about the latter. Meanwhile, the Cougars’ defense is elite by any measure. Pick: BYU
Arizona State (+5.5) at UtahKickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPNComment: Good chance this is the best game of the 10 listed here, and there’s no doubt where the Hotline is leaning. We would give serious consideration to picking the Sun Devils, with all their moxie and grit, if the spread were only 2 or 3 points. But 5.5? Yes, please. Pick: ASU
San Diego State (-7.5) at NevadaKickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBSSNComment: Since the lopsided loss at Washington State that remains largely inexplicable, the Aztecs are 3-0 on the scoreboard and 3-0 against the spread, and have outscored their opponents 85-27. Pick: San Diego State
Straight-up winners: Washington, SMU, Mississippi, Oregon, Oregon State, Texas, Michigan, BYU, Arizona State and San Diego State
Five-star special: ASU. Our calculation is fairly simple: Utah has played one team in ASU’s class (Texas Tech) and lost by 24 points. At home.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline