At the beginning of the week of winter meetings, the Cubs talked over the metamorphosis of their bullpen throughout last season.
“What we thought about our bullpen going into the season, … we were wrong,” manager Craig Counsell said in his winter meetings media availability Tuesday in Orlando. “We were pretty wrong on it. We ended up pitching pretty well. But at the start of the season, it maybe wasn’t the guys that we expected to do it.”
What’s the lesson there?
“Get a bunch of good arms,” Counsell continued, “and see what happens, and have enough ability to pivot when you have to during the season.”
The Cubs are early in their construction of their 2026 bullpen, with close to a clean slate going into the offseason. But that’s expected to be a gilding principle in the process.
So far, the Cubs signed right-hander Phil Maton to a two-year deal and, sources confirmed, agreed to terms with lefty Hoby Milner on a one-year contract. Those veterans join young relievers Daniel Palencia and Porter Hodge, the only returning bullpen arms who have held high-leverage roles for the Cubs in the last two years.
So, there are a lot more spots to fill, between major-league signings, young players already in the system and minor-league deals.
Maton’s signing drew a lot of attention because it was the first of its kind in Jed Hoyer’s tenure as president of baseball operations. When Maton inked his two-year, $14.5 million contract, he became the first reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019 to sign a multiyear deal with the Cubs.
Hoyer said he had made other multiyear offers to relievers. But Maton’s — a much smaller financial commitment than Kimbrel’s three-year, $43 million deal — was the first to cross the finish line.
“That part of the market moved quickly, as you guys saw,” Hoyer said this week. “And you could feel that in the market, through the urgency of the agent’s calls and stuff like that. And he was a guy who we had very good numbers on, very good reports on, and we knew he was going to be a target.”
Maton’s cutter is his fastest pitch, clocking in at just 90.6 mph on average last season, according to Statcast. But he always has thrived as a spin doctor, and the Cubs noticed several adjustments he made, to the shape of his sweeper in particular, that helped him improve his swing-and-miss rate.
Last season, Maton ranked in the 99th percentile in exit velocity (84.8 mph) and 98th in whiff rate (36.2%), meaning he was generating soft contact and missing bats at an elite level.
“It doesn’t matter how you strike a guy out, but a ball in play is random,” Hoyer said. “I do think that we relied heavily on our defense last year. And obviously we’re going to have a really good defense, but I’d love to rely less on it. Just take some randomness out of the game.”
So, the Cubs offered a multiyear deal.
“I’d rather spend our resources on, probably, areas of less volatility, honestly,” Hoyer said. “But at the same time, bullpens are really important. We’re not against [multiyear deals for relievers], but I do prefer the approach that we normally take.”
He called the Cubs’ normal route a “volume approach.” It involves taking fliers on pitchers on smaller deals, relying on the pitching infrastructure to get the most out of them, accepting that some won’t pan out, and gathering enough depth to pivot when necessary.
At the beginning of last season, Hodge and veteran right-hander Ryan Pressly, who the Cubs acquired from the Astros over the offseason, were expected to compete for the closer role.
By the end, Palencia, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar and Andrew Kittredge made up the late-inning committee. Palencia and Kittredge weren’t on the Opening-Day roster. Keller joined the organization on a minor-league deal.
At $3.75 million, Milner’s signing doesn’t fully encompass the spirit of the volume approach, which also relies on minor-league signings and trades, waiver claims, and mid-season additions. But it contains elements.
The low-risk financial investment is paired with the potential for a breakout/bounce-back year. Counsell was at the helm for the Brewers when Milner put together his best career season (2023, 1.82 ERA) in Milwaukee.
Milner, another soft-throwing finesse pitcher, also has a high ground-ball rate. So, regardless of the randomness of any ball in play, the Cubs’ strong defense could play to his advantage.
“It’s definitely something we can factor in and do factor in,” Hawkins said this week, adding that they bring up their defense in pitches to free-agent hurlers. “We’re always trying to find that value; that is one lever that we can pull.”