The buzz around Castro Valley-based U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell possibly jumping into a packed California’s governor’s race has grown to a fever pitch this week, with allies posting – and quickly removing – a fundraising page this past Sunday, and the legislator booking an appearance on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” on Thursday night.
Whether the East Bay representative finds success in what UC Berkeley Political Communications Professor Dan Schnur calls the most “wide-open race for the governor’s office in 50 years” will be determined by how much attention Swalwell can garner by framing himself as the most anti-Trump candidate, Schnur said.
“Gavin Newsom very effectively demonstrated during the Prop. 50 campaign that disliking Donald Trump is the most unifying principle that California Democrats possess. So for Swalwell, tapping into that same anti-Trump sentiment makes good strategic sense,” Schnur said. “And given the recent controversy surrounding Kimmel, it’s likely to be a fairly welcoming platform for an anti-Trump message.”
Through six terms in the House of Representatives, Swalwell has established himself as one of the most vocal opponents of President Donald Trump and his administration. The former Alameda County prosecutor, who lives in Livermore, started his career in politics as a Dublin city councilmember before taking his career to Capitol Hill to represent parts of Alameda and Contra Costa counties. In 2021, Swalwell served as impeachment manager against President Donald Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection.
Swalwell did not return requests for comment, but those who have seen his political-strategy skills first-hand say that if he does enter the race, he’ll surprise many voters who may not yet know him.
“I can tell you he’s a very driven campaigner and he works hard. He’s a fighter and he doesn’t lose,” said Alameda County Supervisor David Haubert, who campaigned with Swalwell in 2012. “If he did make that decision (to run for governor), he would be a strong candidate.”
The 2026 governor’s race is extremely competitive, with 10 candidates having already declared their ambition for the state’s higher office. The competition for voters’ attention is one of the primary keys to victory next fall, Schnur said, and that begins with a strong campaign launch.
“Most politicians want to preserve the news value of an actual announcement,” Schnur said. “If Swalwell is going to run, then taking advantage of a national platform like (“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”) would be a very smart way to do it.”
Swalwell is scheduled to appear on Kimmel’s show Thursday night, giving him a national platform with a late-night host who is a fellow adversary of the Trump administration. ABC suspended “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” in September after Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr criticized a controversial Kimmel joke about Trump’s reaction to the shooting of the outspoken conservative commentator Charlie Kirk.
During Kimmel’s suspension from ABC, Swalwell wore a “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” hat while he peppered Carr with questions about freedom of speech and the politicization of the FCC, telling Carr to “get a lawyer.”
“The second late-night comedian has been taken off the air because the president did not like a joke,” Swalwell said during a House Judiciary meeting, referencing CBS’s plans to end the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. “It should shake every American that the president is firing comedians who make fun of him.”
As a poll last Friday suggested Swalwell has a shot in a crowded gubernatorial field, Menlo College political science professor Melissa Michelson outlined the congressman’s biggest challenge: name recognition.
Michelson pointed out that Swalwell unseated the previous incumbent of the 15th Congressional District, Pete Stark, in 2012, who had held the seat for 40 years prior. She added that Swalwell has “this track record of defying expectations and winning office where most people didn’t expect him to win… I wouldn’t dismiss Eric Swalwell’s chances.”
Other competitors, such as Katie Porter, a former congresswoman who represented southern California’s 47th District, and Xavier Becerra, an attorney and former U.S. secretary of health and human services, are two candidates that potentially are more recognizable than Swalwell, Michelson said. She said she’s “not sure Swalwell is one of those household names” in state politics yet, but that he could also use that to his advantage to sway voters already set against other candidates.
In some ways, the Trump administration is helping Swalwell to get his name out there, after the Federal Housing Finance Agency alleged the congressman had committed mortgage fraud this month, again pitting him against the president and his allies. And while billing himself as the most anti-Trump candidate will be important to California Democrats, Swalwell will need more than that to win, Michelson said.
“If you’ve heard anything about Swalwell these days, it’s because Trump is going after him,” Michelson said. But, she added, “voters don’t just want opposition. They want politicians who care about them. They’re not just going to vote for you because you’re anti-Trump.”