Why is the US striking inside Venezuela?

The US has launched a large scale military operation inside Venezuela, including in the capital, Caracas.

Multiple civilian and military sites have been struck since 2am local time and president Nicolas Maduro has declared a national emergency in response.

Follow our live coverage of the US strikes on Venezuela here

While details remain thin on the ground, this comes after a four-month-long US military pressure campaign against the South American country.

What sparked the conflict?

In recent months, US forces have carried out multiple fatal strikes targeting boats in Venezuelan waters following claims they were carrying drugs linked to gangs.

In September, a strike against a Venezuelan gang in the Caribbean left 11 people dead in international waters, prompting questions about the legality of the attack.

Sources told CNN that UK officials believe the September strike, and others, violated international law after having killed 76 people so far.

UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk went one step further – calling them ‘extrajudicial killing’.

How much of the US drug supply actually comes through ‘narco boats’?

Part of the reason Trump has been striking ‘narco boats’ in the Caribbean is that he claims a lot of the drugs in America are trafficked from Venezuelan gangs.

But a 2020 report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration found that just 8% of the country’s cocaine came by boat through the Caribbean.

Colombian-origin cocaine is the most common type seen in the US, and is normally transported not by boat, but by Mexican cartels through the southwest border.

The report added: ‘Mexican TCOs (Transnational Criminal Organisations) continue to obtain multi-ton shipments of powder cocaine from South American traffickers,
moving it through Central America and Mexico, and then smuggling it into the United States over the Southwest Border.

‘Traffickers, including Dominican TCOs, also transport cocaine through
the Caribbean Corridor, primarily via maritime and aerial smuggling methods.’

How could the war play out?

The concentration of American air and naval forces near Venezuela points to concentrated airstrikes as a main strategy of conflict.

The US troop levels right now are a bit too low for a full land invasion, but if things kick off with air strikes, Maduro’s troops might struggle due to their ageing weapons.

Most of the air defences in the country are Russian-made, which do work, but are no match for modern American weapons.

But the power of US weapons stretches far beyond aircraft carriers, soldiers and ships. It also includes five military and naval bases in the Caribbean, allowing easy access to the region.

Why does Trump want to overthrow Maduro?

The US government is targeting Venezuela because they don’t view President Nicolas Maduro as a legitimate leader. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Cartel de los Soles, or Cartel of the Suns, is ‘responsible for terrorist violence’ in the Western Hemisphere.

Maduro denies being involved, but the designation is the latest attempt by Trump to stop drug trafficking into the US.

Rumours have also circulated for a while that Trump wants to push for regime change to unseat Maduro, who has accused the US of ‘fabricating a new eternal war’.

Trump would likely target facilities belonging to Maduro’s regime or criminal gangs in a bid to stop this.

Who is President Nicolas Maduro?

Nicolás Maduro, an authoritarian socialist who has been in charge of Venezuela for the past 25 years, has retained his grip on power through questionable elections.

Maduro was sworn in as president for the first time in 2013, before taking home two more ‘victories’ in 2018 and 2025.

The Venezuela crisis: What is going on?

A massive economic and political crisis has been underway in Venezuela since 2010.

Former President Hugo Chavez first declared an ‘economic war’ because of shortages in the country, which worsened when Maduro took office in 2013.

In the chaos, this year alone, prices of food have gone up by an estimated 548%, and are forecast to get worse.

Maduro has ruled with an iron fist since taking office, and extrajudicial killings and disappearances have skyrocketed in the past 15 years.

‘We’re scared, silent, afraid they’ll throw us in jail. I used to post things, but not anymore – I shouldn’t – because I don’t know who might turn me in,’ one worker from southern Venezuela told the BBC.

What assets does Venezuela have?

Venezuela is home to the world’s largest known oil reserves and is also rich in coffee and cocoa.

The country also has deposits of gold, iron ore, coal, and natural gas – making it a literal goldmine when it comes to trading power.

Despite this, the country is still known as a developing country due to upheaval in recent years.

What is Venezuela’s military power?

Out of a total population of 31 million, only 15 million residents in Venezuela are available, and 12 million are currently fit for service.

The military consists of 109,000 active personnel, with paramilitary forces far outnumbering those of the Army, Air Force and Navy.

Is Venezuela’s military strong enough to fight the US?

Currently, no. But if Trump launches a campaign in the country, guerrilla warfare resistance could be utilised by paramilitaries and locals.

This type of warfare could see smaller paramilitaries and military units sabotage any US movement in the country.

If that doesn’t work, ‘anarchisation’ would unleash anarchy on the streets of Caracas, the capital city, making Venezuela ‘ungovernable’ for any foreign country.

The shortage of military equipment – most of which is Russian-made and decades old – poses a major problem for Maduro.

Who are Venezuela’s allies?

Venezuela is aligned with Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cuba.

The Washington Post reported that Maduro asked China, Iran and Russia for military equipment as the threat from the United States increases. But so far, none have come to his aid.

Earlier this week, Russian media reported that President Vladimir Putin and President Nicolas Maduro held a phone call after the US seized one of the country’s oil tankers.

Russia holds a large stake in Venezuelan oil, and Putin reportedly expressed solidarity with the Venezuelan people and reaffirmed his support for his government’s policies – meaning this conflict could have a larger effect than realised.

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