Would a home Super Bowl benefit 49ers’ chances? History suggests yes

The Super Bowl’s return to the Bay Area next February is expected to be a huge financial windfall for the region.

The Bay Area Host Committee estimated between $370 million and $630 million in financial impact from the game set for Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

They may not be the favorites after a 6-11 season, but would playing in their own backyard be a boon to the 49ers’ hopes of winning their sixth title in franchise history and first in three decades?

Three previous Super Bowls have involved a team playing in their home region – including the 1984 49ers, who played Super Bowl XIX down the road from Candlestick Park at Stanford Stadium.

So far, no “home” team has ever lost a Super Bowl. If the 49ers surprise to capture an NFC title this season, here’s the relevant history:

Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino (13) puts his hands to his head after a first half pass went incomplete in Super Bowl XIX against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Jan. 20, 1985 in Stanford Stadium. Niners safety Jeff Fuller (49) brought Marino down. (AP Photo)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino (13) puts his hands to his head after a first half pass went incomplete in Super Bowl XIX against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Jan. 20, 1985 in Stanford Stadium. Niners safety Jeff Fuller (49) brought Marino down. (AP Photo) 

Super Bowl XIX – Jan. 20, 1985 – Stanford Stadium

The NFL’s owners approved the Bay Area’s first Super Bowl in December 1982, just 11 months after the 49ers won their first title. Stanford Stadium did not have lights or locker rooms at the time, but the school committed to building dressing facilities, and the NFL brought in temporary lights. Candlestick Park and the Oakland Coliseum were deemed too small to host.

“I told the NFL owners last June that San Francisco would roll out the red carpet better than any city in the United States,” San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein said after the announcement.

The 1984 Niners became the first in NFL history to win 15 games in a season, setting them on a course to be the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home market. Joe Montana and the offense gained most of the acclaim, finishing second in the league in scoring, but the defense was stellar. The defensive backfield quartet of Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright, Carlton Williamson and Dwight Hicks was all selected to the Pro Bowl.

The game was a battle of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks: Montana, the established star, and Miami’s Dan Marino, the ascendant hotshot after breaking NFL records for passing yards and touchdowns in the regular season.

Marino’s Dolphins scored first and led 10-7 after one quarter, but the Niners outscored them 31-6 the rest of the way, including three consecutive touchdowns in the second quarter. Each was the result of a short field after three-and-outs forced by the 49ers defense.

The Niners set a Super Bowl record with 537 yards of offense. Montana had 331 through the air, 59 on the ground and four total touchdowns, while the San Francisco defense forced Marino into two interceptions and four sacks, holding the Dolphins to 25 passing yards.

Montana was named the game’s MVP, while Marino never made it back to the sport’s biggest stage.

“Dan Marino’s a great young quarterback, but my feeling, our feeling, is that Joe Montana is the greatest quarterback today, maybe the greatest of all time,” 49ers coach Bill Walsh said, according to the New York Times.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 07: Rob Gronkowski #87 and Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 07, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 07: Rob Gronkowski #87 and Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 07, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) 

Super Bowl LV – Feb. 7, 2020 – Raymond James Stadium

It took 35 years for another Super Bowl team to play in its home market, and even then, the home-field effect was diminished.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers played the Kansas City Chiefs in front of a COVID-limited crowd of 24,835. Tampa hosted its fourth Super Bowl one year after the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Miami to win Super Bowl LIV. A slew of early-season injuries took the Niners out of the NFC race, and the Bucs capitalized.

In Tom Brady’s first season after defecting from New England, he and the Buccaneers went 11-5 to claim a wild-card spot. They then swept through three road playoff games to earn a home Super Bowl.

The focus was again on the quarterback matchup, as a 43-year-old Brady was facing the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Patrick Mahomes at age 25. It was the Bucs’ defense that made the difference, though.

Without both starting offensive tackles, Mahomes was under constant siege. He took only three sacks but was pressured a Super Bowl-record 29 times and threw two interceptions. The Bucs kept Kansas City out of the end zone in a 31-9 romp.

Ndamukong Suh had 1.5 sacks for Tampa Bay, and Shaquil Barrett recorded four quarterback hits, keeping Mahomes on the run.

Brady hit former Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski for two touchdown passes in the first half, and Leonard Fournette contributed 135 total yards and a rushing touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford celebrates after the Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL Super Bowl 56 football game Sunday, Feb. 13, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford celebrates after the Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL Super Bowl 56 football game Sunday, Feb. 13, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) 

Super Bowl LVI – Feb. 13, 2021 – SoFi Stadium

Just over a year later, history repeated, as the Rams made a run to the Super Bowl in their first season playing at the space-age SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.

Los Angeles had been in playoff contention since coach Sean McVay arrived in 2017 at the age of 30, but general manager Les Snead took a big swing in early 2021 when he traded former No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff and draft picks to Detroit for big-armed veteran Matthew Stafford.

The gamble paid off.

In Stafford’s first season, the Rams went 12-5 to win the NFC West as the No. 4 seed, then beat Arizona in the wild-card round and used a late-game heave from Stafford to Cooper Kupp to overcome blowing a 24-point lead in Tampa Bay, eliminating the Bucs on a last-second Matt Gay field goal. It was more drama in the NFC title game against the 49ers: Trailing by 10 entering the fourth quarter, the Rams engineered three scoring drives to win 20-17 in a game remembered by 49ers fans for Jaquiski Tartt’s dropped interception.

In the AFC, quarterback Joe Burrow and the upstart Bengals shocked the Chiefs in Kansas City in the conference title game to reach the Super Bowl.

The Rams scored first as Stafford hit Kupp from 17 yards out in the first quarter, but the Bengals stayed within a score through the first half.

After an LA-centric halftime show featuring Kendrick Lamar and Dr. Dre, the Bengals came out firing. Burrow and Tee Higgins connected for a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the second half, then Stafford threw a pick to open the next possession. The teams exchanged field goals, then the offense went silent as they traded seven consecutive punts with only three first downs, all by Cincinnati.

Aided by an early fourth-down conversion by Kupp and two defensive penalties inside the 10-yard line, Stafford and the Rams drove 79 yards to take a 3-point lead on a 1-yard Kupp catch.

The Bengals drove to midfield and had second-and-1, but the Rams stopped them on three straight plays, sealing a home Super Bowl victory. Kupp was the MVP for his 92 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Stafford had 283 yards passing and overcame two interceptions with three touchdowns, while Burrow finished with 263 yards and a touchdown on 22-of-33 passing but was sacked seven times.

Aaron Donald and Von Miller each had two sacks for the Rams.

“As far as building this stadium, I think it turned out all right,” said Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who moved them back to L.A. in 2016 from St. Louis and funded the $5 billion stadium where his team and the Chargers now play.

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