The good news for the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) is they’ve already beaten the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) one this season.
The bad news is that game was all the way back in Week 1, and the Seahawks have won 13 of their last 15 games since then.
But one thing the 49ers have going for them that the Seahawks doesn’t is they are more battle-tested heading into their Week 18 matchup given the crazy number of injuries they’ve had to overcome this season.
Saturday’s matchup is the biggest game of the year for both teams. At stake is not only the NFC West division championship but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
If San Francisco wins, it could potentially play four straight home games from Week 18. Through the Super Bowl, which will be played at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco this season.
49ers May Have Uphill Battle Ahead of Them
GettySan Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy
The officiating crew for Saturday’s game was announced this week, and it doesn’t bode well for San Francisco.
The game will be officiated by Bill Vinovich’s crew — a group the 49ers haven’t historically had much success with.
The home team in divisional games are 27-35-1 against the spread (43% win rate) when Vinovich ‘s crew calls a game since 2016, according to @NFLrefstats. Teams are 3-5 in such situations this year.
Furthermore, San Francisco is 4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread when Vinovich calls games during head coach Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, which includes double losses to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV in 2020 and Super Bowl LVII in 2024.
Even more bad news: the Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread under head coach Mike Macdonald with Vinovich’s crew.
Also of importance: Vinovich and his team have the most offensive pass interference penalties called and the second-most illegal block in the back penalties called this season. Vinovich also has the third-most penalties called per game this year.
There is a Silver Lining
While the track record of Saturday’s officiating crew certainly favors the Seahawks, it’s not all doom and gloom for the 49ers.
They head into Week 18 with arguably the healthiest roster they’ve had since Fred Warner went down with a season-ending ankle injury in Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Quarterback Brock Purdy is firing on all cylinders after missing 8 games with a turf toe injury. Purdy has been red-hot the last three weeks, throwing for 893 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, and he’s rushed for 83 yards and 2 more scores.
Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall is also back in the lineup after missing 7 games midseason with a knee sprain, and star running back Christian McCaffrey, who leads the team in rushing (1,179 yards, 10 touchdowns) and receiving (96 catches, 890 yards, 7 TDs) appears to be on track to play as well.
There was concern McCaffrey could be in jeopardy on not playing after showing signs of an injured back at the end of Week 17’s win over the Chicago Bears, but he confirmed to reporters this week his back isn’t serious enough to keep him from playing.
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