The San Francisco 49ers are off this weekend, but the NFC playoff picture is still breaking their way. At 9-4 and currently sitting as the NFC’s No. 7 seed, the 49ers are guaranteed to move up at least one spot during their Week 14 bye, and a wild set of results could launch them as high as the No. 2 seed.
An NBC Sports Bay Area breakdown notes that because the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers face each other, San Francisco will automatically jump one of them in the standings. No matter who wins at Lambeau Field, the 49ers will wake up on Monday in the No. 6 spot.
From there, things get even more interesting. Losses by both the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams would open the door for a massive bye-week leap.
How the 49ers Move Up Without Playing a Game
Going into Week 14, the NFC field stacks up with the Bears, Rams and Seahawks all ahead of San Francisco in the standings. Sports Illustrated pegs the 49ers at 9-4 with a 91% chance to reach the postseason, but they’re currently slotted into the final wild card.
Here’s how the by-week climb works, based on the NBC Sports Bay Area scenarios:
- Guaranteed jump to No. 6:
- Bears (9-3) vs. Packers (8-3-1) means one has to lose.
- If the Bears win, San Francisco passes Green Bay.
- If the Packers win, the 49ers pass Chicago.
- Even a tie pushes the 49ers ahead of the Packers on NFC record.
- Path to No. 5:
- If either the Seahawks (9-3) lose to the Falcons or the Rams (9-3) lose to the Cardinals, the 49ers climb another rung to the No. 5 seed.
- “Best-case” leap to No. 2:
- If both Seattle and Los Angeles lose while San Francisco rests, the 49ers would emerge from the bye as the NFC’s No. 2 seed behind whoever holds the top spot between Chicago and Green Bay.
The NFL’s own playoff probability model has the 49ers’ division odds trailing the Rams and Seahawks for now, but the Week 14 schedule gives them a chance to close that gap without taking a single snap.
What the Bye-Week Boost Means for the 49ers
For general manager John Lynch, the late bye was already a strategic advantage. He called the NFC race “anyone’s championship” and pointed to the Week 14 break as a chance to get healthier for the final four-game push.
San Francisco has been hit hard by injuries, including a season-ending foot injury to left guard Ben Bartch and a fractured rib for fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who will be re-evaluated after the bye. On the positive side, kicker Eddy Piñeiro and multiple front-seven pieces are expected back, giving Kyle Shanahan a deeper roster for the stretch run.
If the standings break right this weekend, the 49ers could return from the bye not just comfortably in playoff position, but firmly back in the NFC West and first-round bye conversation. Their remaining schedule — home vs. the Tennessee Titans, at the Indianapolis Colts, home vs. the Chicago Bears and a Week 18 home finale against the Seattle Seahawks — includes three opponents above .500, offering both risk and opportunity.
A bye-week bump into the middle of the bracket would also change the wildcard math. Instead of staring at a trip to Detroit or Green Bay, San Francisco could be tracking a home game and a cleaner path depending on how the NFC South shakes out.
49ers’ Remaining Schedule & Playoff Odds
- Current record: 9-4, No. 7 seed entering Week 14
- Playoff probability: 91% (Next Gen Stats model)
- Remaining games: vs. Titans, @ Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
If San Francisco handles its own business after the break — especially in the division showdown against Seattle in Week 18 — this Week 14 bye could wind up being the quiet turning point of their season: the weekend they moved up the NFC ladder without even putting on pads.
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