Outside of Tom Brady, who won three Super Bowls with the New England Patriots in the first three seasons of his 23-year NFL career, there may be no quarterback who has started his career as successfully as Patrick Mahomes.
The Kansas City Chiefs six-time Pro Bowl signal caller took over as the teamâs starting QB in 2018, after getting into just one game in his rookie season. But since then, the first-round draft pick out of Texas Tech has been unstoppable, leading the Chiefs to the AFC conference championship game every year, the Super Bowl five times and three NFL championship trophies.
But 12 games into his ninth season, the 30-year-old son of retired Major League Baseball pitcher Pat Mahomes faces the biggest challenge of his professional life, with a team that has managed only a 6-6 record over the first 12 games of the season, and sits in the ninth AFC playoff spot â out of seven spots available.
On Sunday, an NFL Hall of Famer and Super Bowl champion himself delivered an extremely terse opinion of Mahomesâ season, and where it may end up â a viewpoint that the Chiefsâ two-time first-team All-Pro probably did not want to hear.
Super Bowl Champ Strahan Gives Dim Projection
Michael Strahan is probably best known to todayâs NFL audiences for his weekly appearances on Fox Sportsâ Sunday pre-game and post-game shows, a job he has held since 2008. But before that, Strahan had a Hall of Fame 15-year NFL career as a defensive end, spending the entire time with the New York Giants and finally winning a Super Bowl in 2007, his final season.
The Giants pulled off a stunning 17-14 upset of the previously undefeated New England Patriots. Strahan also played in the Super Bowl 35, in the 2000-2001 season, but the Giants lost that one to the Baltimore Ravens 34-7.
So Strahanâs opinions on the NFL should carry some weight. On Sunday, Fox Sports pre-game host Curt Menefee asked Strahan directly whether he believed Mahomes would fail to qualify for the playoffs this season.
Strahan gave his one-word answer: âYes.â
What Are Mahomesâ Chances, Really?
Will Strahan be proven right? The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games, so the outlook is not great; prognosticators using statistical models basically agree.
According to the site PlayoffStatus.com, after their Thanksgiving Day 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Chiefs have just a 27% chance â approximately one out of four â of playing in the first round of the AFC playoffs.
The site rates the Chiefsâ chances of getting to the AFC championship game, where Mahomes has resided every year since 2018, at just 4%, or one in 25.
The Athletic Playoff Predictor Looks Bleak
The Athletic also calculates playoff probabilities, using a statistical simulation model. By the Athleticâs calculations, the Chiefsâ chances of making the playoffs are higher â 42%. But that is still less than 50-50 odds.
However, if the Chiefs lose to the Houston Texans in a Sunday night game on Dec. 7, their chances of reaching the postseason will drop to 15%. One more loss after that would reduce their hopes to less than 1%.
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