As has been the case with many of their losses this season, the Kansas City Chiefs can’t blame one particular person or development. One play in a game with dozens of them isn’t going to singlehandedly alter the outcome in the box score.
Despite that, one particular sequence has head coach Andy Reid under serious fire. Instead of punting on a fourth-quarter fourth-and-1 from his own 31-yard line, Reid opted to go for it.
The result was an incomplete pass, a turnover on downs, and momentum going back to the Houston Texans. Following the 20-10 loss, many Chiefs fans are far from happy with the process and result alike.
Andy Reid Talks Through Risky Fourth Down Decision Against Texans
On Sunday night, Reid took accountability for his decision.
“I thought we could get it, that was the decision,” Reid said. “I was confident we could do that. It’s important that you take advantage of opportunities — I thought it was an opportunity. I was wrong, no? I mean hindsight, it was wrong. We’ve been pretty good on fourth downs. I messed that one up.”
Speaking to the media on Monday, he doubled down on the call.
“Listen, we’d been so good in that area,” Reid said. “Whether it was run or pass. I felt we were in a good position, I thought we had a good play. Again, I thought it was the right thing to do then. This is terrible to say in a situation like this, because we didn’t win and we didn’t get that, but I would probably do that same thing again.
“I also know when you don’t get them, it can be a problem, especially when they’re in that field goal range area. Very aware of that. But again, I thought the risk-reward was right for that time. It slapped me in the face, though, so it didn’t go that way.”
According to advanced box score data from rbsdm, the incompletion shaved 3.5 expected points and took Kansas City’s win probability from 54% to 42%. It was the most impactful win probability play all night. Analytics models sided with Reid’s thought process in attempting a conversion. Given that Houston had punted on five consecutive possessions up to that point, however, some felt the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.
Even in retrospect, Reid isn’t among that crowd.
Chiefs’ Offense Struggling to Replicate Success Down Stretch
Having lost four of their last five games, the Chiefs find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Their playoff odds continue to drop, and they need help now just to get into the big dance. Winning out doesn’t guarantee them anything. Should they lose another game, they can likely forget about planning for mid-to-late January football.
Despite their recent shortcomings, Kansas City’s offense remains the second-best on fourth downs. It’s 13th on third downs and 10th in the red zone. On a per-drive basis, it sits first in yards gained and second in points. Even the best of units can struggle against the Texans, who boast the best defense in the sport through 14 weeks.
Underlying metrics indicate that the Chiefs can still get the job done on that side of the ball. On the year, they’re sixth in EPA/play and seventh in success rate. Since Week 9’s pre-bye loss to the Buffalo Bills, though, those respective ranks are 13th and 23rd. Injuries along the offensive line, paired with some regression from skill position players, is a recipe for disaster.
Drops were also a common — and costly — theme on Sunday Night Football. Totals vary depending on the outlet, but at least four can be divvied up between tight ends Noah Gray and Travis Kelce. Wide receiver Rashee Rice is good for at least one. There’s a case to be made that each of running back Kareem Hunt and wideout Tyquan Thornton can get one credited to them, too.
It was already time to put up or shut up if you’re Kansas City. With a Week 15 showdown against the Los Angeles Chargers on the horizon, it should be flat-out desperation mode now.
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