The Atlanta Falcons got a huge season out of former first-round pick Bijan Robinson last year, which is a good thing because they did take him eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He got a heavy workload with 304 carries for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns, and added 61 catches for 431 yards and another score.
So, why is fellow running back Tyler Allgeier predicted to have a breakout season? It’s because of a new metric developed by Christopher Trapasso called ATEX.
Based on his 2024 season, this new statistic predicts seven NFL running backs who are poised for big things in the coming year. In Allgeier’s case it might be tough to explode on the scene when you’re caught behind Robinson in the backfield. Nonetheless, he’s ranked No. 3 on the list with an ATEX score of 14.84.
Given the criteria for ATEX, it’s not surprising that Pro Football Focus has him ranked fourth in the entire league in yards-after-contact with 3.61 yards per attempt. With just 137 carries, Allgeier still managed a productive 644 yards and three touchdowns.
How does the ATEX formula work?
New statistics will always be met with skepticism, but a quick read of how ATEX works shows that Trapasso did some homework on this. It’s a little complex and if you’d like to dive into the weeds and read more, that’s right here.
Otherwise, here is a brief overview of how ATEX works. Trapasso writes:
“(Missed Tackle Forced % × 0.4) + (High Impact Tote % × 0.6)
“MTF rate is self-explanatory. And HIT % is the amount of 15+ yard runs from a back divided by total carries during the regular season.
“I gave slightly more weight to HIT% simply because a longer run is more impactful than an avoided tackle.
“After its creation, I gathered ATEX for all running backs with 50+ carries in a given season from 2019-2024.
“I then took all those ATEX scores and split them into six clear tiers—Elite, Strong, Above Average, Average, Below Average, and Poor.”
It’s no surprise then that Allgeier’s tough running style scored high on this system.
Will Allgeier even get enough touches to have a breakout season?
The ATEX stat is nice and all, but it’s kind of tough to have an explosive season if you don’t get the ball all that much. Robinson’s 365 touches in 2024 made that extremely difficult for the former BYU running back. Entering his fourth season, Allgeier needs to find a way to get more involved in the offense, if that’s even possible.
With Robinson coming off of a high-usage season, statistics suggest that he’s due for a down year. Maybe the Falcons come up with a way to lighten his load and lean more on Allgeier, as he’s extremely productive when given the chance.
“PFF also credits Allgeier with 37 missed tackles forced last season,” Sports Illustrated’s Arkesh Ray writes. “Allgeier had the second-most missed tackles forced of all running backs with 150 or fewer rushing attempts, trailing only Commanders running back Antonio Gibson. He had the fifth-most for running backs with 200 or fewer rushing attempts.
“Allgeier is also credited with gaining 43 first downs last season, tied 17th most in the NFL among all running backs. He was 37th in rushing attempts in 2024.”
If Robinson stumbles a bit, Allgeier could indeed take on a bigger role and be a load carrier. If not, Allgeier will see limited use again as Robinson is clearly the workhorse.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Atlanta Falcons RB Predicted for Breakout 2025 Season by ATEX appeared first on Heavy Sports.