Today is the perfect opportunity for the Indianapolis Colts to prove that they are who they say they are. They will be playing host to a 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders team and will enter Sunday’s Week 5 matchup as 7.5 home favorites.
These are two teams that are interested in running the football, so here’s how we are handicapping the show down in Indy.
Daniel Jones o18.5 Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones got away from the running game in last week’s loss the Las Angeles Rams. Considering that the only time he has been a non factor in the run game was in their only loss of the year, I think there is a real correlation between Jones’ rushing output and team success.
Not to mention, the Raiders have allowed multiple 40 yard rushing games to quarterbacks this season. Justin Herbert and Marcus Mariota both carved them up.
Defense travels and Vegas has sneakily been pretty effective against the run. I expect Jonathan Taylor to struggle finding space and that’s where DJ comes in. This is a low number that can be reached in two carries.
Jones has passed this line in two of four games.
Raheem Mostert o12.5 Rushing Yards
Raheem Mostert exploded on the scene last week in his first week on the Vegas’ active roster. In his one game he did nothing but explode for 64 yards on just four carries, adding 11 yards through the air on one catch. His explosive 37 yard carry proved why he needs to be suited up every single week for a struggling Raiders team.
I expect him to get five or six carries this afternoon, making this a line that he could trip and fall on every play and still pass.
This is especially live if you think the Colts have a chance to blow the Raiders out, putting starter Ashton Jeanty on a pitch count and opening up more opportunities for Mostert.
Tre Tucker o52.5 Receiving Yards
Brock Bowers was just ruled out for the Raiders. This leaves a six-foot-four hole in the Raiders‘ passing attack as they try to replace the team’s second leading receiver and the NFL’s best tight end.
Wide receiver Tre Tucker will slide right into this gap. He has just one less yard on the season than Brock. And what if I told you he is the only wide receiver or tight end on the entire roster who has caught a touchdown this year?
Tucker is quietly having an excellent season and with Geno missing his first option, Tucker is an auto play against secondary in Indianapolis that has been the weakest spot so far during the team’s great start.
I also am playing his anytime touchdown that is still somehow at +220.
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